July 7, 2026

Canada is Where Australia Was in 2016: But Aus blew it.

On April 26, 2016 Australia was where Canada is now - but we blew it.

That day represented a rushed pre-July 2nd, 2016 ELECTION process. The Federal Government in power needed about 2 Federal seats in submarine building Adelaide to give it a chance to win the Election. Announcing the huge submarine project gained the 2 seats that helped win it the Election.  

The winning French bid was assisted by a former adviser to the Australian Defence Minister leading the French bid. 

See my "Naval Group (was DCNS) wins Australia's Future Submarine contest - Youtubes, Diagrams, Picture, Anthem" of April 26, 2016 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2016/04/dcns-wins-australias-future-submarine.html

In September 2021 the French project was terminated by Australia in favour of a US-UK AUKUS promise. This was made by a geriatric Biden and Prime Minister Boris Johnson who resigned a year later (after becoming deeply unpopular in the UK for other reasons). The first of the aging US Virginia SSNs (for which Australia has already paid A$Multi-Billion deposits) are unlikely to be delivered by Trump or his presidential successors to the RAN until 2046 - or maybe not at all. No pressure on the US because we've already paid huge deposits.

Failing that the UK may design and build an SSN-AUKUS at Barrow, UK, in the mid 2050s. Australia is unable to build an SSN - especially the reactor half. 

Even during the Collins selection process, from the 1970s, Australia avoided choosing TKMS, because TKMS is too large and efficient, hence not reliant on Australian politicisation of all things submarine.

4 comments:

Shawn C said...

UK Defense Journal recently published an article on the SSN-AUKUS with two key points:
Construction begins in 2027.
12 boats are “confirmed”, but what is not confirmed is if this twelve are for the RN, or the total number of boats.
RR has just started production of the 4th PWR for the class.

The Australian government should take a long hard look at recent contracts - the Canadian submarine contract with Germany and Norway, the Polish submarine contract with Sweden, the Norwegian Type-26 contract with the UK, and the UK’s joint amphibious program with the Netherlands. These projects all are about a single platform, not ‘nationalised’ in any meaningful manner.

Australia can no longer purchase bespoke naval platforms - none of the aircraft or major weapons systems the Australian Army or RAAF have purchased in this century has been bespoke, but the RAN has continued on this path, resulting in the need to buy off-the-shelve Improved Mogami’s as Australia’s military shipbuilding fails, again.

Seriously, the Australian government should at the very least accelerate the SSN-AUKUS production program in Osbourne to the early 2030s, send crew to Barrow immediately for training, and start contributing to the supply chain as soon as possible.

(This is all based on the UK’s own build program succeeding…)

Shawn C said...

Apologies, forgot to add the link to UKDJ:
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-to-start-building-new-nuclear-attack-subs-next-year/

Pete2 said...

Hi Shawn at 7/07/2026 8:20 PM and 7/07/2026 8:21 PM

The UK are dreaming. I see https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-to-start-building-new-nuclear-attack-subs-next-year/ as PR propaganda.

I think the real UK work schedule is:

1. fixing the endemic PWR2 piping problems incapacitating all of the Astutes and Vanguards
2. completing HMS Achilles by 2029 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astute-class_submarine#Boats_in_the_class
3. Building the 4 x Dreadnought SSBNs (in France they are doing similar 4 x 3G SSBNs by 2050) by 2050 with not yet developed PWR3 reactors. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dreadnought-class_submarine#Submarines_of_the_class
4. Beginning and completing the PWR4 by 2050.
5. Completing the first SSN--AUKUS for UK RN trials by the early 2050s.
6. Export SSN-AUKUS to Aus RAN by the late 2050s.
7. Start substantial production (not just laid-down steel cutting) of Aus SSN-AUKUS at Osborne, Adelaide from the late 2050s.

Cheers Pete

Pete2 said...

Hi again Shawn at 7/07/2026 8:20 PM

I think the Australian submarine building base/tradition has nothing to do with efficiency, innovation or initiative. Australia's industrial base is totally and understandably unready to initiate a nuclear submarine program.

The closest equivalent, Brazil, has been toying with its nuclear submarine program for 45 years https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian_submarine_%C3%81lvaro_Alberto#Development

Australia's programs have everything to do with safe job creation and careers for managers, RAN officers (and their more highly paid retirement careers), union submarine builders, contractors, component contractors, Federal shipbuilding regional development money for Adelaide (now that its lost its highly subsidised car industry) and now Perth, votes at the Federal Labor level and Western and South Australian Government levels.

Bespoke or tailoring boosts budgets and build times to benefit all of the above.

Cheers Pete