November 14, 2025

US and China Leading The Large Carrier Arms Race

Through much original scientific and engineering research, espionage and reverse engineering China has rapidly developed electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS), aka aircraft carrier electromagnetic catapults. China probably tested its EMALS with a pilot at sea in mid 2025 on its latest aircraft carrier Fujian, of the Type 003 class commissioned November 5, 2025.  Fujian's EMALS are inspired by the first pilot at sea use on the USN's latest supercarrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) on July 28, 2017. The US is probably building 10 more Fords to replace its 10 Nimitz-class carriers on a one-for-one basis.

In building the Type 003 class China has leaped from limited war-load ski-jump carriers of the Type 001 and 002 classes and avoided obsolete steam catapult technology altogether. 

I don't know whether China will build more Type 003s or proceed straight to nuclear powered Type 004s. At the rapid rate China is advancing in carrier technology I wouldn't be surprised if China builds 7 x Type 004s. Seven Chinese nuclear  carriers in the Indo-Pacific might give China something approaching parity with the USN. This is given the USN's eleven carriers must cover much more ocean - that being the Atlantic-Arctic as well.

Meanwhile the UK has taken a step back from its two full size steam CATOBAR Audacious-class aircraft carriers of the 1950-70s in building two full size ski-jump carriers of the Queen Elizabeth (QE) class. The QEs are limited to F-35Bs of limited range, limited war-load with no scope for manned fixed wing anti-submarine aircraft and no E-2 Hawkeye style AEW aircraft. 

India, currently having ski-jump carriers seems to have settled on a future EMALS CATOBAR carrier to be called INS Vishal. Vishal may be conventionally of nuclear powered and probably commissioned at least 15 years from now, in the 2040s.

France may retire its nuclear powered carrier Charles de Gaulle (CdG) in 2038, but probably later. France aims to replace CdG with a new nuclear carrier Porte-avions de nouvelle génération (PANG) in English "new generation aircraft carrier" after only 7 years of construction (2031-2038). But I think the timings are overly ambitious, given France has 4 x 3rd generation SSBNs (SNLE 3G) to be completed by 2050. France also needs to meet the increased Russian conventional and nuclear armed forces threat. 

After Russia's experience with the troubled carrier Admiral Kuznetsov and earlier carrier-cruisers Russia should be encouraged to build several more. This may spare two or three blameless European countries from Putin's love of invasion.





Here and above is "Deep Intel on New Chinese Carrier's First Flight Ops" uploaded September 25, 2025 and expertly narrated by former US Navy F-14 Radar Intercept Officer Ward Carroll on his Youtube Channel. Ward provided the description below:  

"A video just released by the Chinese government documents that the People’s Liberation Army Navy recently had a significant operational milestone. During an at sea period off the coast of Shanghai, the PLAN aircraft carrier Fujian, which was launched three years ago, already completed its first successful flight operations that included using the J-35China's fifth generation fighter, and the electromagnetic catapult system better known by the acronym “EMALS.”"

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Turkey also wants a carrier:

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2025/02/mugem-turkeys-new-aircraft-carrier-could-be-a-game-changer/

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/04/new-details-about-turkiyes-future-aircraft-carrier/

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Meanwhile, Italy has its eye on a nuclear carrier:

https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2025/italy-evaluates-nuclear-powered-aircraft-carrier-under-long-term-naval-modernization-strategy

https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2025/06/10/the-italian-navy-plans-to-acquire-a-new-nuclear-powered-aircraft-carrier-by-the-year-2040/

Pete2 said...

Hi Anonymous at 11/15/2025 5:18 PM

Many navies have medium-larger carrier aspirations. An Italian nuclear carrier being most unlikely.

Turkey having a medium carrier for the confines of the Black and Mediterranean seas being a vanity aspiration when land based aerial refueled aircraft would be/are more economical and efficient.

I would put South Korea and Japan into more likely having competition between each other for each having a 50,000 tonne carrier by 2045.

Regards Pete

Anonymous said...

South Korea and Japan also have far more experience and infrastructure suitable for building big ships. Their shipyards are huge.

Pete2 said...

Hi Anonymous at 11/18/2025 10:04 PM

The large scale and efficiency of South Korea's and Japan's shipyards will also speed their introduction of nuclear submarines, if they decide to change their nuclear peaceful use laws first.

Cheers Pete

Anonymous said...

I can't see a problem with France selling another PANG to its neighboor Italy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_French_aircraft_carrier

Regards,
MHalblaub

Pete2 said...

Hi MHalblaub at 11/25/2025 1:39 AM

Yes there could be economies of scale for France if it did sell a future nuclear carrier variant to Italy and even to Germany and Turkey.

Why France built just 1 x Charles de Gaulle (CdG)-class carrier rather than the operational minimum of 3 (Rule of Thirds...) suggest the CdG was a vanity (for the Greatness of France) project.

In the absence of European and Canadian NATO trust in Russia orientated Trump foreign policy France might do well to sell as many future nuclear carriers to its NATO allies as possible. That way they could form a combined carrier fleet against Russia.

Cheers Pete