One of the KGB's top Cold War roles was to use covert methods (including Agents of Influence) to try to split the NATO alliance and alienate Western citizens from their governments. Hence the USSR encouraged unilateral nuclear disarmament calls of protesters within NATO countries in the 1980s, but not among the threatened masses of Warsaw Pact countries.
Ex-KGB man Putin (now Commander-in-Chief of all Russia's external intelligence agencies as well as FSB) has a record of successfully manipulating Trump as an Agent of Influence. Trump parroted some Putin policies during Trump's first presidency. Such as Trump typifying the US intelligence community as a "Deep State". This may resume during Trump's second presidency.
1. Reported 12 Feb: Speaking at a rally in South Carolina on 10/11 Feb 2024 Trump recalled when he was President (2017-2021) Trump told a NATO member that Trump would "encourage" Russia to do as it wishes in cases of NATO allies who are "delinquent".[ie. A NATO country paying less than 2% of its GDP on Defence]. "'No I would not protect you. In fact I would encourage them [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want”. [to your NATO country].
Biden commented: "If my opponent, Donald Trump, is able to regain power,
he is making it clear as day that he will abandon our NATO allies if Russia
attacks," he said. "[Trump’s] admission that he intends to give Putin
a green-light for more war and violence, to continue his brutal assault against
a free Ukraine, and to expand his aggression to the people of Poland and
the Baltic states are appalling and dangerous."
2. If Trump wins the
November 5th, 2024 Election Trump may broker a Russo-Ukraine peace treaty that
might largely be drafted by Putin. Hence the resulting Russian
victory over Ukraine would benefit Putin as well as Putin's
friend Trump. This is in terms of Russian
money through intermediaries for Trump. A Russian victory over
Ukraine might also embolden China into such risky behavior as blockading Taiwan
– starving Taiwan into surrender.
If China took Taiwan then the current third of Chinese military forces (aimed
at Taiwan) would be freed up for longer distance ventures – one day impacting
us in Australia. After all China is not just rapidly expanding its
military budget (now more than A$400 Billion per year) for mainland defence.
3. Further on US politics that directly impacts Australia. Biden’s loss in the November Election seems assured with the horserace like odds on a Biden win plunging over the last week to 3.40 against Trump’s 1.91 (as at 12 Feb). Biden is now seen by many as an illegal hoarder of secret documents like Trump. What’s worse Biden is seen by the Justice Department Special Counsel Robert Hur as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory”. Hur is a former official nominated to high office by Trump. The Trump camp are saying if Biden is too senile to stand trial Biden is too senile to be President.
There may be hope Biden is prepared for someone else, like Michelle Obama, to become the Democrat nominee, pre 2024 Election.
8 comments:
Thanks Pete. Obviously Trump’s attitude to defending allies is a serious risk for all its allies, including Australia. Despite the focus on Trump’s inflammatory words, this risk of US withdrawal is the same risk long identified in the writings of defence strategists like Hugh White, Allan Gyngell and Sam Roggaveen. In this scenario AUKUS looks high risk at best, worthless at worst. Its a lot of eggs.to have in one fragile basket.
To me the even bigger danger is that there is now a large and receptive audience in the US population to hear these words. If there was not a politician like Trump would not say them. So this threat still exists if Trump leaves US politics.
The ADF should be doing a form of scenario planning to test how it could defend Australian interests if the USA did not show up. I suspect it would lead to changes in both organization and acquisition strategy.
Hi Pete,
There's an update on the situation with the ex-Indian Navy sailors arrested in Qatar on charges of spying on behalf of Israel/Mossad. The sailors, previously sentenced to death, have been pardoned & released by the Emir. The Times of India has the run-down on some of the potential contributing factors:
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-editorials/escape-from-doha-gois-quiet-diplomacy-indias-economic-heft-in-qatar-both-contributed-to-ex-navymens-release/
All in all, seems like a wise move on the part of the Qatari leadership. It wouldn't have served their interests to permanently damage ties.
Cheers
Hi Anonymous at 2/13/2024 12:51 AM
Indeed we have Australian writers like Hugh White, Allan Gyngell and Sam Roggaveen, who have long been concerned about the risk of US isolationism. One could add little moi to the list since before Trump became Prez in 2017 ;)
See my September 2016 worries about Trump's isolationist foreign policies https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2016/09/a-trump-win-closer-after-hillary-almost.html before Trump became President. I pointed out South Korea's worry.
Trump demonstrably put his transactional threats of Pay For Alliance into practice during his first term. If Trump had not been ousted in January 2021 I'm sure South Korea (SK) would have witnessed the withdrawal of US forces due to what Trump saw as a shortfall of protection money.
AUKUS is indeed relevant to Australia as is ANZUS and the Quad.
Trump excites the (lets make foreign policy easy) isolationists in the worst US tradition - and yes, there are many more US politicians like him.
Maybe an Australian independent nuclear deterrent, like Israel's, would be a good idea and make the US take notice... We have the device plans, Uranium, 3G SILEX enrichment know-how and a long history of missile and nuclear tests.
Pete
Hi Gessler at 2/13/2024 3:26 PM
Yes, I noticed the ex-Indian Naval officers arrested in Qatar on charges of spying went from a Qatari death sentence in October 2023 to freedom in February 2024 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Qatar_espionage_case#Trial_and_verdict
As well as https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-editorials/escape-from-doha-gois-quiet-diplomacy-indias-economic-heft-in-qatar-both-contributed-to-ex-navymens-release/
wikipedia is a useful source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Qatar_espionage_case
Yes, even if Pakistan suggested a death sentence, India is too big an economic and strategic power for Qatar to alienate. Israel may have negotiated with Qatar as well.
I don't know how much money changed hands or if there were spy exchanges going on.
Regards Pete
Pete
Thanks for your comments in response. Kudos to you for highlighting Trump’s isolationism so early.
Your raising of South Korea is interesting in multiple respects. I increasingly think they may be Australia’s best bet for a stable defence procurement partner, preferable even to UK and USA. South Korea has good engineering skills, huge shipbuilding capacity (including submarines) and a skilled domestic nuclear industry. They have all the ingredients to make a useful partner for building SSNs, including the motivation if Trump is reelected.
South Korea only lacks an SSN design. Perhaps that could be purchased in a three way deal and SSNs made under license? IF not, as you have highlighted, their new SSB class may be an adequate substitute.
What you says about SK capabilities is correct, they are probably working on a N sub btw
however SK seems overly sensitive to Chinese pressure..
SK stand on Spratley , Paracels , Phil ...is far from clear
China Pressure is
-critical economical patners
-political as China is the only "mitigator" for NK
This pressure might become even more effective if Trump osolationism raises more alarm in SK
Buying subs from Japan was the (good )initial plan before the French , Aukus Saga
It got derailed in the 2014/2016 period because the japanese did not wanted (or were unable) to build in Aus and at the same time it was perceived as very antagonistic toward China!
At that time the economical relation were crfitical and the PCC posture was very differnt
Thanks Anonymous at 2/14/2024 11:09 PM
I agree. If Australia opts to build another generation of SSKs then South Korea's KSS-III SSB might be a good bet. But one concern is its emphasis on a high VLS load, which may be unhelpful for long range/speed/endurance Australian needs. Its diesel fuel energy intensity means it could not get to China quickly enough or at all to threaten China with its SLBM land attack missiles.
A no VLS version, in the shape of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KSS-III_submarine#DSME-3000 may make more sense if we are restricted to our near north region.
I think it unlikely the US would permit US SSN secrets, that are also in UK SSNs, to be passed to SK. See my https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/02/would-be-ssn-countries-us-rejected.html
So SK would need to develop its own SSNs and SSBNs, which could take decades. This is judging by the extreme difficulty non-Superpowers (even China and France) have taken to develop nuclear subs and reactors.
Another option is that Australia could rely on XLUUVs for peacetime and smart-mine wartime functions. THE US CRS report cited in https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/02/would-be-ssn-countries-us-rejected.html has much to say about Australia buying US B-21s - even useful for long-range nuclear strike on China and eastern Russia.
Regards Pete
Hi Anonymous at 2/15/2024 9:43 AM
Yes SK has every reason to be sensitive to Chinese strategic and also economic pressures. SK is in the unfortunate position of sharing a landmass with China - meaning a PLA tank invasion could potentially wipe out SK. Or 1,000s of even short-range Chinese conventional ballistic missiles could end SK.
True that China (CCP and all) may be the only force holding NK back from attacking SK.
As I said to a different Anonymous above - in my 2/15/2024 12:10 PM comment, Australia may need to think outside the SSK-SSN box.
Hence another option is that Australia could rely on XLUUVs for peacetime and smart-mine laying wartime functions. THE US CRS report cited in https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/02/would-be-ssn-countries-us-rejected.html has much to say about Australia buying US B-21s.
Aussie B-21s could be even useful for long-range nuclear strike using air to ground hypersonic missiles against China and eastern Russia.
Regards Pete
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