A mugshot more benign than his official one, threatening Re-Election Retribution.
There is room for rejoicing that even if Trump won the November 5, 2024 Presidential Election Aussies can
transcend what they fear may be a downturn in their AUKUS Virginia SSN fortunes. Trump, after all could only do damage until Saturday, January 20, 2029 when his term as President expires. This is even though he may seek to cancel the Virginia sale or at least using his transactional approach to increase the price of Virginias sold to Australia. This might still leave a more alliance orientated follow-on president
(serving 2029-2033) to undo the damage and escort Virginia ("RAN V-1") to her new mate, Australia, in 2032.
However, if Trump loses the 2024 Election, but undeterred, wins the 2028
Election then Australia’s relationship with aforesaid Virginia might be terminated even before her 2032 wedding night. A Trump in office through to January 20-21, 2033 could flick off poor Virginia under the dreaded 270 days rule.
It be true Trump in January 21, 2033 would be 86 years old, a mere Babe
beside budding Biden. But Trump continues to surprise. Medical advances, and a great deal of well, "earned" money, may
transform Trump into a Cyborg come senior Republican politician that Arnie could only dream of. Watch New Trump strut his stuff here and below:
7 comments:
If part of the democratic base including youngsters, African Americans etc are stupid enough to show their anger by staying home, then trump will win with a high probability.
After all Biden won the EC by 20,000 votes across 3 states. I am now convinced of 2 things
1. Compared to cattle like Republican voters, educated democratic voters are as hard as herding cats.
2. The penchant for moronic self harm in America is now reaching the level of a national art form. True gluttons for punishment.
If I was asked to bet AUD 50 today, my bet on the outcome is that trump will get into the WH getting between 275-300 EC votes.
Thanks GhalibKabir at 1/09/2024 1:06 PM
For the benefit of readers and to increase my knowledge of US Electoral Colllege (EC) intricacies I quote from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College
"In the United States, the Electoral College is the group of presidential electors required by the Constitution to form every 4 years for the sole purpose of voting for the president and vice president. Each state appoints electors under the methods described by its legislature, equal in number to its congressional delegation (representatives and senators). The federal District of Columbia also has 3 electors under an amendment adopted in 1961. Federal office holders, including senators and representatives, cannot be electors.
Of the current 538 electors, a simple majority of 270 or more electoral votes is required to elect the president and vice president."
and
"In the 2020 presidential election (held using 2010 census data) Joe Biden received 306 and Donald Trump 232 of the total 538 electoral votes."
Yes, if Trump receives "275-300 EC votes" he would well exceed the 270 needed to win the 2024 Election.
Australia's Sportsbet, which relies heavily on US polls and US political expertise, has given Trump odds of 2.30 to win ahead of Biden's 3.10. See https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2024-5479667
Perhaps only the US Supreme Court may bar Trump from serving as President "under the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution's "insurrection clause", which disqualifies insurrectionists against the United States from holding office if they have previously taken an oath to support the Constitution." see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_presidential_eligibility_of_Donald_Trump
Although the US Supreme Court seems stacked with conservative Justices appointed during Trump's first term, who may not by majority bar him on 14th Amendment grounds.
This US Presidential Electoral process is the biggest (peaceful) political competition of 2024.
Respectfully and proudly, the biggest peaceful contest will be the Indian elections 2024. In fact nearly the same or more voters exercised their franchise in 5 states in 12/2023.
Btw SSBN 3 is likely finishing fitting out and getting ready for sea trials in India even as 3 more scorpenes and six other SSKs come under additional procurement plans besides 26 marine Rafale jets
Hi GhalibKabir at 1/11/2024 5:50 PM
Yes India's April-May 2024 will be huge https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Indian_general_election
Thanks for the update on SSBN 3 aka Arihant-class "S4". It will be 1,000 tonnes heavier and can take 4 more K4s than INS Arihant and INS Arighat https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arihant-class_submarine#Ships_in_class
Thanks also for update on more SSKs and Rafale jets.
Regards Pete
Hi again GhalibKabir
A notable article is "Why India Rents Nuclear Submarines from Russia" of Jan 11, 2024 at https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-india-rents-nuclear-submarines-russia-208526 containing interesting statements like:
"India has also evolved to become one of Moscow’s primary economic partners since [the Russian invasion of Ukraine in] February 2022. In fact, according to Jaishankar, Indian-Russian trade is expected to top $50 billion this year."
and also major typos
"The Islamic Republic of Iran has notably the Kremlin..."
and
"Additionally, Indian crews were now [its meant to read "not"] even permitted to man certain areas of the INS Chakra, including the submarine’s reactor."
I think the article mostly makes accurate statements, though.
Regards Pete
The national interest makes a lot of mistakes. Indian crew were not allowed near the reactor of the Charlie class chakra 1 leased 1988-1991. Considering the Russian ‘show me’ support in practical terms for the S-1 reactor since 2000 and for the other parts of ssbn program, the claim doesn’t stand up any more.
Very true Ghalib at 1/12/2024 12:06 PM
It seems when a National Interest editor? is churning out 3 to 5 snapshot articles per day mistakes (or an incomplete take) creep in https://nationalinterest.org/profile/maya-carlin
Regards Pete
Post a Comment