An interesting March 29, 2023 Popular Mechanics article that Russia's 6 diesel-electric Kilo submarines in its Black Sea Fleet (BSF) may be ordered to torpedo Ukrainian merchant ships and/or lay naval mines in the Black Sea. Russian subs and other units mistaking the nationality/flag of a ship in the Black Sea is possible...
Such naval mines, that can also be laid by Russian ships or aircraft, may threaten not only Ukrainian ships but ships of other nations bordering the Black Sea. Those other nations include Georgia and (a channel to) Moldova and NATO members Turkey, Rumania and Bulgaria. Also third country (flags of convenience) shipping could be sunk.
It is unclear whether destroying or damaging shipping of a NATO member by using torpedoes or naval mines would be considered an attack on NATO under Articles 4 and 5 of the NATO Treaty.
Escalation into a Russia-NATO confrontation might occur quickly even if accidental.
6 comments:
Thre are no more than five russian subs in the Black sea: four 636 and one 877V
The two others 636 of the Black sea fleet are outside Black sea and can no more be back due to the closure of the Turkish straits
https://soumarsov.eu/Sous-marins/Post92/636/06363/6363.htm
Regards
Thanks Soumarsov
A credit to Turkey for keeping those 2 Russian Kilos and other Russian warships out of the Black Sea.
Pete
Turkey has finally withdrawn its objections to let Finland into NATO, Sweden still stays out though.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65132527
On the topic of what this would mean to Russia, many of the points mentioned in the article are also summarized in this excellent video by CaspianReport:
https://youtu.be/9dIjrNwXgrU
Cheers
Thanks Gessler
For https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65132527 of April 1, 2023 which states:
"Finland will become the 31st member of Nato after Turkey's parliament voted to approve its application. Turkey had delayed Finland's bid to join the West's defensive alliance for months - complaining the Nordic nation was supporting "terrorists". Sweden, which applied to join Nato at the same time last May, is still being blocked by Ankara over similar complaints. Any Nato expansion needs the support of all its members. Finland will now be formally admitted into Nato at its next summit, taking place in July in Lithuania."
Thanks also for the excellent Caspian Report video: https://youtu.be/9dIjrNwXgrU
Finland joining NATO in July 2023 will double Russia's border with NATO. Thus stretching Russia's shrinking conventional forces still further. Making Russia's nuclear weapon alternative a more stressful issue.
It will be a new post 1945 strategic question for Finland to decide what to do in any NATO-Russia conventional war.
Interesting that Russia's St Petersburg and Kaliningrad Baltic Fleet SUBMARINE force can be much more easily be tracked. Not just Germand and Norwegian Navy watchers, but Finnish and Swedish naval sensors will be able to track Russian SUBMARINES the length of the Baltic.
Regards Pete
Hi Pete
After the Russo-Ukraine War, Japan should send minesweepers to the Black Sea
Regards
Hi Anonymous Apr 3, 2023, 2:14:00 PM
Why Japan? Japan is about the most distant navy from the Black Sea. Two oceans away.
Certainly the Black Sea nations have the most to gain by clearing their sea of mines.
A coalition of Black Sea nation minesweepers and survey ships could do the job.
Cheers Pete
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