Looking back. Under the then new Australian Prime Minister (Turnbull) Japan and Germany's loss was France's 2016 SSK gain - but only until 2021.
The 2021 AUKUS SSN new choice was Morrison's and Johnson's (both gone) and Biden's. Biden is the last, albeit ineffectual, AUKUS triplet. A visibly aging Biden will be an 82yo President on the outside chance he's Inaugurated in 2025.
The extremely expensive, conventional weapon limited, Australian SSN issue now belongs to new Prime Minister Albanese, whose administration is now reassessing all Australian defence issues.
In 2016 after the winning Aus SSK announcement I mentioned France's ability to possibly later offer SSNs as an advantage over TKMS. In that same article I also raised the issues of possible future China and Trump threats.
Might 2016 concerns continue to be relevant in 2022-2025?
2025 may bring a possible return of US Trumpist isolationism making the AUKUS SSN option even harder, more expensive and late compared to France offering cheaper, already in production, Barracuda SSNs, in the more immediate future.
I humbly suggest Australia's Nuclear Powered Submarine Taskforce should give highly developed consideration to France's SSN as a Plan B if AUKUS submarine Plan A continues to prove an overly late, expensive and high risk option.
Also France (eg. to Israeli enjoyment) has proven itself a nurturer of a wider range of weaponry than the UK or US have been willing, not to put too fine a point on it.
2 comments:
Pete
Thanks for this article and link back to your previous accurate posts. I share this view to the point that your plan B is now my plan A.
I note ASPI interviewed Adm Mead yesterday who remained optimistic about the RN-USN project. Of course it is his job to do so. Yet the fact that he suggested a (now) “14 year old girl” might become the commander of Australia’s first SSN suggests it will take another 20years.
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australias-navy-is-cultivating-a-nuclear-mindset-says-ssn-taskforce-chief/
Since the announcements that both (1) USA are struggling with Virginia program delivery and would have difficulty supporting RAN SSNs before 2040 and (2) the UK cannot supply the Astute class and would presumably offer Australian participation in the SSN(R] program it is difficult to share Mead’s optimism.
The Columbia SSBN program runs to 2041 assuming no further delay. Starting a US SSN design then assuming a two year drumbeat and 8 year construction time would mean a first RAN SSN by 2049 and 8 not completed until 2063. What will the PLAN have by then? As per your point on US politics, there will be another 4 POTUS elections before that start date.
The UK SSN(R) will best case not complete design till 2026, while the Dreadnought SSBN program runs to 2038. The corresponding start date would give a first RAN SSN by 2046 and 8 by 2060. The UK approach now also has a lot more cost and delivery risk because the SSN(R) design is not complete.
The cost of the US SSN(X) and UK SSN(R) will also be so much higher that they might delay other defense programs, like the Hunter frigates and completion of the F35 acquisition.
Also the potential decade plus delay in the start of Adelaide sub construction jobs won’t go down well in the new government, which creates political risks for the RAN. What if Labor decides to fund something else instead in the mean time?
So I’d rather we set out on a more achievable and affordable task sooner and got 8 French SSNs that would still be regionally superior to Chinese or Russian SSNs, than wait to build the world’s best SSNs and possibly never receive them.
Thanks Anonymous @Oct 28, 2022, 9:00:00 AM
I've turned your comments into article "Aus SSNs With Future Weapon "Ambiguity"" of October 28, 2022 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2022/10/aus-ssns-with-future-weapon-abiguity.html
Cheers Pete
Post a Comment