China's impending security agreement with the Solomons Islands is something for all in the Southwest Pacific (including Australia and New Zealand) to worry about. Submarine Matter's reported the China-Solomons danger way back in 2019.
It pays to look at where China will build its air and naval bases in the Solomons. This includes renewed interest in the small Solomons island of Tulagi. Tulagi, like China's South China Sea islets, is just large enough to host a Chinese air and naval base.
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On November 6, 2019 Submarine Matters intelligence reported
https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2019/11/chinas-future-forward-base-of-tulagi.html
"China’s Future Forward Base of Tulagi a Threat to Australia."
"In August 1942 US Marines (in the Guadalcanal Campaign) fought and died to liberate the strategically important island of Tulagi (in the Solomon Islands) from the Japanese.
Now Tulagi, with its dual-use capable natural deep water harbour and airfield has been leased, cheaply, for 75 years to China. See the map below.
Australian politicians appear to have been taken by surprise and have been unable to head off the lease. China is now too politically powerful and can target its increasing cash reserves to buy off islands that are close to, and strategically important to, Australia.
The New York Times, not Australian news outlets, broke the story on October 16, 2019 and advised:
“The renewable 75-year lease was granted to the China Sam Enterprise Group, a conglomerate founded in 1985 as a state-owned enterprise, according to corporate records.
A copy of the “strategic cooperation agreement,” obtained by The New York Times ... reveals both the immediate ambitions of China Sam and the potential...for infrastructure that could share civilian and military uses.
Signed on September 22, 2019 the [lease] agreement includes provisions for a fishery base, an operations center, and “the building or enhancement of the airport.”
Tulagi island (part of the Solomon Islands) in relation to Australia. (Map courtesy Agency France Press via Yahoo News, October 2019) ---
[Under pressure from Australia the Solomons Island government cancelled the October 2019 deal with the Chinese "military technology" aligned China Sam Enterprise Group. But a new 2022 agreement might see a Tulagi 75 year lease renegotiated.]
The military value of Tulagi includes its potential use as a forward Chinese naval and air base in cutting naval strategic lines of communication between the US and Australia (map above).
China can improve Tulagi’s airfied to accommodate maritime patrol aircraft to blockade Australia northern approaches (Tulagi to Port Moresby (New Guinea) and return) and Australia’s eastern approaches (from Tulagi to New Caledonia and return). From Tulagi Chinese strike aircraft could hit the cities of Cairns and Townsville (both on the Australian mainland).
Tulagi as a forward operating base for Chinese surface ships and submarines would save many days of passage to block the major east coast Australian city-ports of Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne.
Australia’s leaders have been virtually silent about the strategic possibilities of the Tulagi Lease:
Perhaps Australia knew about Tulagi-China negotiations in advance. But as Australia could not alter the situation, because of China's power and money, Australia was reduced to feigning surprise.
The possibility that China could develop Tulagi at the rate of its rapid South China Sea island seaport-airport building is a major concern, to say the least.
Pete"
2 comments:
Thanks Pete. From a strategic perspective there is a lot more at stake here than Australia - USA links. Between Tulagi and the South China Sea the trade routes between Australia and Korea and Japan could be easily cut off. They are Australia’s second and third largest trading partners (increasing as Australia China trade declines). Japan is quite dependant on Australian coal and gas supplies for energy.
So this reinforces the need for an east coast sub base, but which one? Would Brisbane be within missile range of Tulagi? Would Newcastle or Port Kembla be safer?
Hi Anonymous
Yes Chinese bases in the Solomon Islands will be well placed to blockade Australia from Western alliance friends and sea trade.
In WWII Japan attempted to build an air base on Guadalcanal in the Solomons. This led to large land and naval battles fought by US Marines and the US Navy on a scale far beyond Australia's military resources.
I reckon I partly anticipated a Chinese missile threat from Solomons bases in my comment of March 15
See https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2022/03/brisbane-jellyfish-effective-anti.html?showComment=1647318348810#c2380596291572753804 which in part indicated:
"Another problem in siting a base in Brisbane is it is too far north, giving less warning time against Chinese bomber aircraft or Chinese island based missiles.
This is particularly if China, in future, has bases in islands (PNG, Solomons, Vanuatu or New Caledonia) relatively close to Brisbane.
Future Federal, Queensland State and Brisbane Local governments will be mindful that "public consultation processes" will be highly controversial and divisive.
Defence Minister, Peter Dutton, may be partly right in thinking money and jobs for his Brisbane electorate of Dickson https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Dickson#Members will conquer fears and be good for his future careers.
"public consultation processes" will also act as "Wedge Bait" (you saw that phrase coined here first) outing Labor, Greens and other concerned politicians.
Regards Pete
Mar 15, 2022, 3:25:00 PM"
Probably Port Kembla would be the the best option for the East Coast Submarine Base. It has pre-existing port, wharf and land use advantages. Also submarines, entering and leaving Port Kembla, can easily be protected by nearby surface warships coming down from the main naval base in Sydney Harbour.
Cheers Pete
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