The misadventures of AUKUS robot AlboGov never cease. I publish on subs, other naval,
nuclear weapons & broad political issues. Aussie sub changes are glacial: talk rather than actual new subs. The 1st Collins LOTE may secretly concern the US Combat System & be ready 2029. Trump may decide to cancel the AUKUS Virginia offer due to USN advice it needs all operational SSNs right through to the 2040s. My colleagues Shawn C and Gessler are excellent writers. Pete.
October 7, 2021
No Israeli Submarine Caught By Algeria
What looked like news of an Israeli Dolphin-class submarine being caught spying on Algerian Exercise RADAA 2021 in late September 2021
turns out to be Iranian propaganda, that was quickly declared false by the Algerian Ministry of National Defense.
Defense News recently reported that Estonia is going on a modernisation drive for artillery, coastal defense systems, drones and air defense systems: https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/10/05/estonia-eyes-artillery-missile-defense-drones-in-modernization-drive/
Right after that, it was announced that Estonia had selected the Blue Spear anti-ship missile for coastal batteries: https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/10/estonia-selects-blue-spear-anti-ship-missile-for-coastal-batteries/
Now this is a little bit strange - we first heard about the IAI/ST Engineering Blue Spear publicly last year, and it's apparently been under development for a few years: https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2020/07/28/singapore-israeli-firms-team-to-develop-new-ship-killing-missile/
The original assumption was that Blue Spear was being developed as a Harpoon replacement for the Singapore Navy (which incidentally used Gabriel I-III on the Sea Wolf-class MGB from the early 70s, before switching to Harpoon on the Victory-class MCV and Formidable-class FFG) which would equip the Republic of Singapore Navy fleet in a few years time.
While the Estonian tender is relatively small, the fact that Blue Spear won indicates that it is either already in operational use, or about to be deployed, especially when you take into account that the IAI Sea Serpent, which looks like a Blue Spear derivative tailored for the RN's SSGW requirement, has an 'end of 2023' delivery date.
Estonia's relationship with Singapore has been growing, with its Singapore embassy established this year. The Estonian president, Kersti Kaljulaid, paid a three-day working visit to Singapore in July, where she also meet Singapore's Defense Minister. https://news.err.ee/1608274146/president-kaljulaid-on-working-visit-to-singapore
Ms Kaljulaid's visit could also have been fact finding, as Singapore is a major user of Israeli defense systems - from Spike ATGMS to Spyder SAMS, surveillance radars and Hermes UAVs. Singapore also operates Venus 16 USVs for coastal defense and MCM.
Israel is certainly enterprising in its missile sales.
Sometimes I have a feeling that tech transfer via US citizens retiring in Israel is added to some Israeli reverse engineering of US weapons and blueprints.
Estonia's army is <6000 strong, not even a mechanized brigade, of which 2/3 are conscripts. Why would they need a 290km anti-ship missile? It could end up in Finland if it misses its target. The Blue Spear does not look stealthy at all. I would have gone for the NSM. Estonia is not that far from St-Petersburg. Russia could just send a few mechanized armored divisions. 6000 folks are not going to last more than a few hours. KQN
Not sure your "feeling" about Israelis "reverse engineering" and "US retirees" is correct
There is in Israel a strong technological base and an innovative posture..beyond just weapon As far as weapon systems is concerned, from armor active protection , CRAM defense missile, , drone ,SEAD elimination , cyber,or counter E measure for example, they are the top world innovator over the last 30/40 years. Certainly more than the US , the French, the Indian or the Chinese ,that all 3 emulate the US with a 5 to 20 years lag , the British that do not do much ,or the Russian who are in a US parity exhausting race at the strategic level
This is due to their strategic tactical pressing needs, to the immigration of close to 1 M former soviet/russian jews , highly trained in the 80 ,and the integration in the US financial system which allow start up financing well above the israeli finance industry capacity( not benefactors ,it is a "virtuous circle.") They are agile , they just do it, because they are small and therefore no place for so many "committees"
They obviously do reverse engineering like everybody else , the US support of 3B/y in US made weapons is important (less than 1% og their GNP, 10%of their military budget about, also a US defense industry subsidy by the US Congress) but this is not the predominent factor.This is a simplistic (arab/iranian?) perspective
The main Israeli problem is their internal fabric solidity (religious vs non religious, israeli arab vs israeli jews, oriental vs european and so on )
Re Israel Pete what you have is a density of threats ,translate into needs, a density of talents and a density of money. Needs , talents , money.. what else is important ! ..Saudi Arabia spend 3 times more..
You see under your eye South Korea moving to that model , see their weapons export rates.. because over the last 10 years they are not sure anymore of the US posture.
Taiwan would be in a similar situation if they had not been overly confident in the benevolent nature of the PRC Goverment and of the US commitment
And on the relevance of East Asian/Israeli high tech weapons, intelligence systems and counter-terrorism methods I'm also aware that Israel has close ties with Singapore.
Not to put too fine a point on it, both being surrounded by larger Islamic nations concentrates efforts somewhat.
9 comments:
Hi Pete,
Not really your bailiwick but..
Defense News recently reported that Estonia is going on a modernisation drive for artillery, coastal defense systems, drones and air defense systems:
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/10/05/estonia-eyes-artillery-missile-defense-drones-in-modernization-drive/
Right after that, it was announced that Estonia had selected the Blue Spear anti-ship missile for coastal batteries:
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/10/estonia-selects-blue-spear-anti-ship-missile-for-coastal-batteries/
Now this is a little bit strange - we first heard about the IAI/ST Engineering Blue Spear publicly last year, and it's apparently been under development for a few years: https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2020/07/28/singapore-israeli-firms-team-to-develop-new-ship-killing-missile/
The original assumption was that Blue Spear was being developed as a Harpoon replacement for the Singapore Navy (which incidentally used Gabriel I-III on the Sea Wolf-class MGB from the early 70s, before switching to Harpoon on the Victory-class MCV and Formidable-class FFG) which would equip the Republic of Singapore Navy fleet in a few years time.
While the Estonian tender is relatively small, the fact that Blue Spear won indicates that it is either already in operational use, or about to be deployed, especially when you take into account that the IAI Sea Serpent, which looks like a Blue Spear derivative tailored for the RN's SSGW requirement, has an 'end of 2023' delivery date.
Estonia's relationship with Singapore has been growing, with its Singapore embassy established this year. The Estonian president, Kersti Kaljulaid, paid a three-day working visit to Singapore in July, where she also meet Singapore's Defense Minister.
https://news.err.ee/1608274146/president-kaljulaid-on-working-visit-to-singapore
Ms Kaljulaid's visit could also have been fact finding, as Singapore is a major user of Israeli defense systems - from Spike ATGMS to Spyder SAMS, surveillance radars and Hermes UAVs. Singapore also operates Venus 16 USVs for coastal defense and MCM.
The Seawolf class submarine, USS Connecticut, just had a collision in the SCS. 11 submariners were injured.
KQN
Hi Shawn C
Israel is certainly enterprising in its missile sales.
Sometimes I have a feeling that tech transfer via US citizens retiring in Israel is added to some Israeli reverse engineering of US weapons and blueprints.
Regards
Pete
Hi KQN
Yes I saw the many USS Connecticut collision articles replicating on the web.
Interesting if it turns out Connectic crashed into a Chinese SSN or Chinese SSBN.
Seafloor/rock collisions also happen occasionally.
Pete
Estonia's army is <6000 strong, not even a mechanized brigade, of which 2/3 are conscripts. Why would they need a 290km anti-ship missile? It could end up in Finland if it misses its target. The Blue Spear does not look stealthy at all. I would have gone for the NSM.
Estonia is not that far from St-Petersburg. Russia could just send a few mechanized armored divisions. 6000 folks are not going to last more than a few hours.
KQN
Hi Pete
Not sure your "feeling" about Israelis "reverse engineering" and "US retirees" is correct
There is in Israel a strong technological base and an innovative posture..beyond just weapon
As far as weapon systems is concerned, from armor active protection , CRAM defense missile, , drone ,SEAD elimination , cyber,or counter E measure for example, they are the top world innovator over the last 30/40 years. Certainly more than the US , the French, the Indian or the Chinese ,that all 3 emulate the US with a 5 to 20 years lag , the British that do not do much ,or the Russian who are in a US parity exhausting race at the strategic level
This is due to their strategic tactical pressing needs, to the immigration of close to 1 M former soviet/russian jews , highly trained in the 80 ,and the integration in the US financial system which allow start up financing well above the israeli finance industry capacity( not benefactors ,it is a "virtuous circle.") They are agile , they just do it, because they are small and therefore no place for so many "committees"
They obviously do reverse engineering like everybody else , the US support of 3B/y in US made weapons is important (less than 1% og their GNP, 10%of their military budget about, also a US defense industry subsidy by the US Congress) but this is not the predominent factor.This is a simplistic (arab/iranian?) perspective
The main Israeli problem is their internal fabric solidity (religious vs non religious, israeli arab vs israeli jews, oriental vs european and so on )
Hi Anonymous [at Oct 8, 2021, 7:53:00 PM]
Thanks for your views. My own can be a bit hasty.
Indeed Israel regularly produces sorely needed high tech weapons.
This is given Israel is constantly outnumbered and under threat from some of its neighbours.
Some of these threats allow Israel to try out, modify and perfect its weapon systems.
The export market (even Estonia and much larger customers) permit Israel to reduce the development costs per unit sold.
Australia may come calling as a customer for new weapons systems to deter China after Beijing absorbs Taiwan.
Regards
Pete
Re Israel
Pete what you have is a density of threats ,translate into needs, a density of talents and a density of money.
Needs , talents , money.. what else is important !
..Saudi Arabia spend 3 times more..
You see under your eye South Korea moving to that model , see their weapons export rates.. because over the last 10 years they are not sure anymore of the US posture.
Taiwan would be in a similar situation if they had not been overly confident in the benevolent nature of the PRC Goverment and of the US commitment
Hi Anonymous [Oct 8, 2021, 9:34:00 PM]
And on the relevance of East Asian/Israeli high tech weapons, intelligence systems and counter-terrorism methods I'm also aware that Israel has close ties with Singapore.
Not to put too fine a point on it, both being surrounded by larger Islamic nations concentrates efforts somewhat.
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