Naval Group Sales After the France-Aus Sub Deal Dumped?

Summarising the comments of some well-placed French sources:  

Naval Group needs to look to the future now that the French-Australian submarine deal is dead. But France is still hurting.  

Australia will begin to detail the failures of Naval Group to show Australia’s disengagement is legitimate. Australia and France will enter into a secret legal battle (because the Australia-France submarine contract is secret) between all the parties. But without losing face. 

It is a big disappointment for France and its naval industry. We thought that with Trump's departure France had avoided the worst from the US. Well no. The French tend to have a little too much confidence in themselves and to believe that the others will be well intentioned. 

France’s Political Environment 

The Biden administration is astonished at the strong reaction of France to the AUKUS sub deal. There is a saying in France “A promise is only binding on those who believe in it.” The US is waiting for the comparatively “small country” France to calm down. But France feels alone. 

Let us not forget that France is entering the French Presidential election period and there is a record to defend. This French Presidential race part explains the severity of French reactions to the loss in Australia. President Macron wants to win a second term in 2022. 

This point about Macron's severe tone and France's Presidential Election was finally recognised by Australia's Defence Minister, Peter Dutton, on Friday, October 29, 2021 when Dutton "suggested the French president may be playing to domestic political sensibilities. “Look, don’t forget, too, that France has got an election in April of next year,”".  

Building More Nuclear Submarines for the French Navy? 

To make up for the loss of revenue from Australia, it would be desirable if the French Government asked Naval Group to build 8, instead of the projected 6, Barracuda Suffren-class SSNs for the French Navy. This would give France greater power in Asia.  
 
Recently, some French Parliamentarians insisted that France build 5 or 6 next generation SSBNs (called SNLE-3Gs) instead of 4, to strengthen France's nuclear weapon posture. 

 
Expanding the number of French submarines, would provide greater French independence but there are two problems:  
-  the French budget, and 
-  the fact that the French Government must not become the lifeline of Naval Group
    (even if the Government is the major shareholder in Naval Group).  

 

France’s Recent Arms Sales Performance Has Been Tough 

President Macron will try to encourage his European partners to buy French conventional submarines in a renewed pan-European push. But will the Germans (TKMS), Spaniards (Navantia) and Swedes (Saab Kockums) play the French game? Those countries are still likely to compete. 

For India, with their P-75I specifications, which require a confirmed AIP, France's chances will be complicated. France has been unable to develop an operational second generation AIP. 

Over the Netherlands’ Walrus Replacement Competition, many in France have doubts. 

It would be sad if France's submarine export market were limited to South America. 

The worst possibility for France would be that the Spain's s Navantia S-80s win markets. It would be shame. France is helping Brazil build conventional Scorpenes and the non-nuclear aspects of a Brazilian SSN. 

 

Outside of Naval Group and submarine matters France has been fooled over the plan to sell French built Dassault Rafale jets to Switzerland. US F-35A's won that sale, and France's unhappy sales record continues.