On Australia’s On Line Opinion, under the pseudonym “plantagenet”, on 29 October 2020 at https://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?discussion=9299&page=0
I started a discussion under with the predictive title “Trump Tipped To Win Election”.
So
far it has proven more accurate than most pollsters who predicted a landslide
for Biden with Biden 9% or more ahead. The discussion has attracted 102
comments so far. So what do you think of my
29 October 2020 prediction below?:
" Trump Tipped To Win Election
Short Proposition
It is better to be pessimistic, that way you won’t be disappointed. While the
collective polls at http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/ currently
tip Biden to win on a 9% basis, collective poll predictions proved wrong in
2016.
Within the collective polls Rusmussen Reports, a very accurate pollster in
2016 http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/how_we_did
sharply
disagreed with the collective on 28 October 2020, tipping Trump to win by 1%.
Long Proposition
See Rusmussen's 2020 prediction here http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_oct28
“Trump 48%, Biden 47%, Wednesday, October 28, 2020
President Trump has seesawed back into a one-point lead over Democrat Joe Biden
in Rasmussen Reports’ daily White House Watch survey.
The latest national telephone and online survey finds Trump edging Biden 48% to 47% among Likely U.S. Voters. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) remain undecided... The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points...”
The US voting system is very complicated, due to:
The President is elected according to the Electoral College System http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College not
directly on the popular vote. In 2016 Trump won more Electoral College votes
(304 to Hillary’s 227) while Hillary won more popular votes (65,853,514
compared to Trump’s 62,984,828).
Tied to Electoral College system, Swing/Battleground/Toss-up State results
often determine who wins. See this Electoral Map http://www.270towin.com/maps/biden-trump-polling-map where
Trump or Biden needs 270 Electoral College Votes to win. Swing States (Florida,
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin and Iowa) are
identified and predicted here http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/28/us-election-polls-tracker-swing-states-donald-trump-joe-biden .
In very close State counts disputes have been filed with State or Federal
courts, perhaps ultimately for the US Supreme Court to decide. http://theconversation.com/the-case-of-biden-versus-trump-or-how-a-judge-could-decide-the-presidential-election-146367 .
This 2020 election is very unusual in that the President says he won’t accept a
Biden win under the electoral system http://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/24/politics/trump-election-warnings-leaving-office/index.html .
Here's hoping Biden wins.
Posted by plantagenet, Thursday, 29 October 2020 5:13:02 PM "
5 comments:
C'est fini pour Trump. Hats off to him though for energizing his base and get out the votes.
However, playing only to his base means plenty of Americans get fed up with his antics, especially suburban women. In 2020, there are just a few millions more of the latter. Even with the pre-virus growing economy, he never tried to expand his base.
Last, the uncontrolled pandemic iceberg ensures that the Trump ship became the Titanic.
He only has himself to blame for his own defeat.
KQN
the game is over.
Hi KQN [at November 8, 2020 at 12:02 PM]
Indeed Trump did "energize" his Base and the US economy for his first 3 years.
Then Trump boosted COVID by denying its seriousness, thereby infecting his Base and hobbling the American economy.
US "suburban women" were not impressed with Trump's boasting "when you're a star, they let you do it. You can do anything. ... Grab ‘em by the pussy. You can do anything.” See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_Access_Hollywood_tape
Regards
Pete
Hi Anonymous [at November 8, 2020 at 1:24 PM]
Lets hope "the game is over."
But I doubt it. Maybe vote recounts in some US states.
As the US is culturally litigious, Trump campaign pushed State and Federal court cases will drag out Election finality.
Also COVID in the US will remain bad and even get worse as the US moves into deep Winter.
After January 20, 2021 Inauguration Day, I think residual US right-Trumpists will quickly blame Biden for not curing COVID or fixing the Economy overnight.
Regards
Pete
"WHY BEIJING HASN’T CALLED BIDEN"
BY JAMES PALMER, Nov 11, 2020 http://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/11/why-beijing-not-called-biden-election-transition-china-trump-xi-jinping/
"That the Chinese leadership hasn’t congratulated the U.S. president-elect doesn’t mean it favors Trump.
Four days after the U.S. presidential election was called for challenger Joe Biden, China still hasn’t phoned to congratulate the president-elect. Its delay is matched by a few other autocratic states, such as Russia, but most democracies and some other key U.S. allies like Saudi Arabia have called Biden despite President Donald Trump’s continued denial that he lost.
Beijing’s response doesn’t indicate favoritism for Trump. If there is an ongoing power struggle between two factions, China doesn’t want to take a side. And with the ruling party denying the election result, the president attempting to declare a false victory, and the government conducting a purge of the Defense Department and the intelligence services, that’s not an unreasonable assumption on Beijing’s part.
If Trump’s refusal to concede were happening in another country, the United States might make the same assessment. It is only confidence in U.S. institutional democracy and the continued rule of law that suggests otherwise—something the Chinese leadership doesn’t share. This view is influenced by the experience of politics at home, where rubber-stamped votes mean nothing compared with behind-the-scenes contention. (State-run social media has more openly mocked Trump, however.)
Some analysts have worried that China will take aggressive moves thanks to the distraction in the United States, but I don’t think that’s likely. A crumbling United States, from Beijing’s point of view, is an unpredictable one. While Chinese diplomats are happy to shore up their relations with other countries as their U.S. counterparts face domestic chaos, radical moves are unlikely.
Just as some Americans are convinced that the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party is around the corner, Chinese leaders have believed for some time—and especially since the 2008 financial crisis—that history is on their side and that the U.S. system is doomed. If anything, the events of last week have confirmed that. And if you’re winning anyway, why risk changing the game?"
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