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Flowing from December 2018 reports it is likely several Indian entities will eventually agree to lease another Russian SSN. Indian entities would include the Indian Navy, Ministers of Defence and
Finance and maybe Indian Department of Atomic
Energy? all cleared by Indian Prime Minister Modi?). Leased would be another
improved Akula (aka Project 971) SSN (in Russia “multi-purpose”) nuclear
submarine from Russia.
The agreement would be with all the Russian opposite
numbers as well as Russia’s weapon export agency Rosoboronexport.
This new leased Akula is expected to be operational in time (2022?) to replace
India’s currently leased Akula (known as Chakra
II (was Russian Nerpa).
India's lease history is:
- Chakra I (a Russian
Charlie-class) in 1988 till 1991,
- Chakra
II in December 2011, notionally till 2021 or 2022,
- new lease would be another Akula, named "Chakra III"? from 2022?
In late November - early December 2018 the Indian Navy inspected
and discussed leasing terms for one of two Akulas, namely:
- “Bratsk”
(commissioned 1989 into the Russian Navy), and
- “Samara” (commissioned 1995 into the Russian Navy).
Right-click mouse to translate Russian
article indicating both Bratsk and Samara were transferred in 2014 to
Russia’s Northern Fleet repair and base complex for overhaul and deep modernization.
Also see interesting Akula specification towards the end of that Russian
article.
Bratsk and Samara's 4 year overhaul 2014-2018 is a long time. So it is
unclear how far “overhaul [including derusting water tanks and refueling the OK-650M
reactor] and deep modernization” has actually progressed.
A figure of US$3.3 billion ((Rs 23,000 crore = 230,000,000,000
Indian rupees). has been discussed. But it is unclear what that figure includes
(eg. just major repairs to bring one of these old Akula’s up to delivery to
India status or covering the whole 10 year lease cost)?
India’s naval chief Admiral Sunil Lanba also
reportedly
discussed an apparent linkage
between the new Akula lease with the construction in India of [what would be 6
x AIP Amurs under Indian Project 75(I)
] SSKs.
PETE COMMENTS
Some might claim that India leasing yet another Russian SSN
is a step backward from India concentrating on developing Indian built SSNs.
However a new Akula lease would benefit India’s long term
build 6 SSNs project. Indian technicians and engineers should be able to
examine what upgrades Russia is making to Bratsk or the Samara while they are
being upgraded. Indian technical observations can be transferred officially or
unofficially to India’s current SSBN and future SSN
projects.
Bratsk or the Samara should include many modernised features not present in India’s current Chakra II. The features may include improved data processing, more effective sensors and more potent weapons interface (maybe greater ability
to deliver anti-ship, ASW and land attack missiles?).
While India has not developed its own SSNs it is
important to protect Arihant-class SSBNs with one or two of its leased
Akula SSNs. Perhaps Indian SSBNs from now on might predictably leave or enter Fleet Base East, Vishakhapatnam, on deterrent patrols. In those cases SSBNs particularly need Indian SSNs to patrol against waiting Chinese SSKs, Bangladeshi SSKs and particularly Chinese SSNs.
FURTHER READING
Additional liaison agreement details from Russia https://sputniknews.com/military/201812051070410027-india-lease-nuke-submarine-russia/
Pete
14 comments:
Hi Pete,
IMO, if India is gona need SSN's to protect their SSBN's. India should simply make a deal with Russia and buy all the remaining Akula class SSN's. It would a lot better than leasing them. We all know that SSK's can't go deep enough where the SSBN's are ad I suspect that's why they want SSN's.
Hi Nicky
90%+ Akulas are old tech and very rusted and wont be worth leasing other than as a stop gap. the price is very dear too.
With AIPs, SSKs will basically become be useful in the role of silent 'ambush predation'. you need the rapid speed up and down the SSNs can provide to escort CBGs and SSBNs and hunt enemy SSNs.
Pete,
I am hoping India will get the next Akula and learn on the process and also keep the Nerpa permanently post lease in 2022 to learn to rotate SSNs on patrols. Unfortunately funds do seem to be crunch issue as the aircraft carrier, drones, artillery, jets etc have taken a big chunk of the capital commitments. So as I said a viable SSN made in India will happen only by the early 2040s at the earliest (provided Modi like dispensations are at the helm frequently)
Hi Nicky K.D Chaleunphone
India probably cannot afford buying 2 modernised Akulas, just buying one.
Also most Akula's are 1970s-early 80s tech. Most were launched in the 1990s and not maintained well by a Russia with little money. So most would be suffering from rust, much internal. Most would need their reactors to be refueled.
No easy, quick solution to India's SSN shortfall.
Regards
Pete
Hi GhalibKabir
Yes, much of the benefit of India leasing or buying an overhauled and modernised Akula, would be as a technology design that India could partly transfer into Indian SSNs from the 2030/40s.
Also if India buys/retains Chakra II and leases/buys another Akula then 2 Akula SSNs/SSGNs are probaly more stealthy then even the latest Chinese Type 093s/95s. India sweeping "inoculating" the potentially enemy SSK/SSN congested waters outside Mumbai & Vishakhapatnam for Indian SSBN operations may be essential.
Also the Arihants may be as noisy as Delta Is (not to mention looking like Russain Yankee SSBNs or George Washington class)
so Arihants may permanently need SSNs and all other ASW platform types around for bastion defence.
Regards
Pete
HI Pete,
I was nothing of the original version of the Akula more of the Project 971M (Akula III) and the Project 971U (Akula II)
All Akulas are old. 25 plus years old since being laid down. Does not change the outcome as the aged hulls and upgrade costs preclude leasing anything more than one boat at a time.
Hi Pete,
I think Russia does limit what sort of weapons India can carry (may have been relaxed post-MTCR). But I remember reading that the leased SSN may not be used in war like operations. I guess that does not preclude it from SSN 'hunting/tracking' ops.
I wonder if the IN has considered including advanced Israeli sonar and other technical aids et al in the Nerpa (assuming they retain it post end of lease 2022). That is what was done with Indian Su-30 jets (Litening G4 pods, EL-8222 jammers, mission computers etc with Israeli collaboration ensuring the jets can fire Israeli long range AAMs if need be)
example: https://www.israeldefense.co.il/en/node/27514
The Arihant is likely to be quite noisy (may be not as bad as the Xia but likely noisier than the Jin SSBN).
But your point on a couple of SSNs being necessary is very valid. But it is likely to be slow and if my hunch is right the 'cloud cuckoo land' dwelling liberati populating Sir Lutyens' Delhi will slow things down further after Modi likely departs in May 2019. (these are same characters who argued for dialog with Pakistan even as the GWB administration via the CIA passed concrete proof that the pakistan army and intelligence agency planned the Mumbai Siege in 2008. sad but true)
With such political dispensation likely to have a good shot at power in 2019, the Indian SSN program will have to brave enormous odds to fructify.
Hi GhalibKabir
So many issues and obstacles to progress. Though not as bad as Australia :)
After India leases another Akula could Russia and India agree on constructing Improved Akulas in India?
Regards
Pete
I think it is very safe to say the Russkies wont allow Akula construction in India. Even for the SSBN that is why their help remained to 'show-how' and let the Indians learn on the job. Even the HY-80 type steel India eventually made at home as the Russkies charged a bomb and then delayed the deliveries considerably affecting construction timelines.
The SSN will likely see little bit of similar 'show-how' (my hunch is the level of cooperation won't be similar which means India will have to work out the optimal reactor dynamics by itself... a significant ask IMHO). However that is contingent on who is at the helm at North Block in New Delhi (Home of the Defence Ministry). If a horrible choice similar to A K Antony is again foisted as Defence Minister along with the gandhi family blockhead scion as prime minister, then all bets are off. Already the SSK, SSBN, Aircraft Carrier programs are only limping to completion despite a good government at the helm.
I am not so sanguine though, considering the kneecapping democracies are receiving across the globe, a coalition of rapacious thieving dunces led by the gandhis is a possibility.
Hi GhalibKabir [at 11/12/18 8:16 PM]
If India used HY-80 steel for INS Arihant then this supports my theory that the Arihant class are improved Russian Yankee class https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yankee-class_submarine or Delta-Is by dimensions, displacement and several other ways.
If the Russians have just been showing-how then Russia is more likely to give hints on a mildly hump-backed 7,000 ton Yankee design rather than a radically hump-backed twice as heavy Delta IV https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta-class_submarine
Like we've discussed before I think France may be willing to sell reactor tech - for a price + Project 75(I) SSK sale
Perhaps India shouldn't have relied on Russian tech and Russian carrier operational experience (none) in building Indian carriers. US, France or UK vastly better.
I thought India had run out of Gandhis - but does https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rahul_Gandhi have a chance?
Regards
Pete
1. Some sources say HY-80, some say no, it is the vastly stronger AB-3 type Russian Steel in Arihant. I only know there was some trouble with Russia supplying steel and eventually India made that grade steel locally.
2. once upon a time there was only Russia. So i will not discount their support especially during difficult times in 1971 when Nixon and Kissinger threatened India
3. These are the 'fake' gandhis. Gandhi means 'grocer' and is a common surname in Gujarat. Indira Nehru the daughter of Jawaharlal Nehru married a regular Parsi/Zoroastrian/Indian of Iranian origin named Feroze Gandhi in 1942. Rajiv, her first son who governed from 1984-1989 as PM gave birth to a blockhead called Rahul Gandhi. His Catholic Italian Mother Sonia is the current head of the congress party and is a corrupt virulent communalist. She has billions stashed away in Swiss banks and in India. Google UPA-2 scams some time and see.
Many literate and illiterate Indians do not know this and keep voting like sheep for the same set of wolves who have economically slaughtered them every single time. Sadly he has a chance in 2019 as a grand coalition of rapacious thieves is coalescing around him. He is an useful dunce to have at the top and his mommy wants him crowned as PM (his 'birthright' )
Hi GhalibKabir at 14/12/18 7:57 PM
AB-3 may be a big jump in pressure hull steel strength - equivalent to HY130 according to the Table at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2015/07/chinese-and-russian-submarine-pressure.html
Fortunately Australian politics, at the national-federal level, doesn't have dynasties in way the following do:
- US (Kennedys, Clintons, Bushes, Trump his rich daddy and brothel owning grandpa) and
- China (Xi Jinping and father https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping#Early_life_and_education )
Fortunatly Australia has an average evenly high distribution of wealth, high literacy, low violence, low terrorism (touch wood) with the excesses of national politics more amusing/irritating than bitter.
Regards
Pete
The US and India suffer one major problem: tens of millions (US) and hundreds of millions (India) of human beings incapable of critical thinking (it is either involuntary because they are uneducated like in India or voluntary thanks to taliban like religiosity in the US)
Either way, what ends up happening is the growth path of the country stunts like India or the country loses its advantages over time (like the US might be beginning to).
The internal threat for India from the 'divide and rule' politicians is as bad as the external threats from China and pakistan. I am sure we can handle external threats.. but there are no SSNs or AB-3 steel to fortify India from the internal 'termites' calling themselves the gandhis or whatever.
to borrow and rephrase Paul Keating's acerbic quote on political harlots
"no country can survive its treasonous political and media harlots"... hard days ahead
Australia is on the hook in this SSK thingy... Hope Labor can solve the matter next year.
Hi GhalibKabir
I'm counting the days until Australia's May 18, 2019 Election. Only 148 days until the Opposition Labor Party comes to power - with many implications for Australia's naval shipbuilding race.
The Opposition Labor Party has promised a review of the Attack class submarine purchase - even though the Shadow Defence Minister weeks before promised Labor would still build 12 French designed subs.
see https://www.afr.com/news/politics/commonwealth-wants-french-taxpayers-to-pay-for-any-submarine-faults-20181113-h17uta
Regards
Pete
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