Payne Reliever Pyne will become the sole Defence Minister

Defence Industry Minister, Christopher Pyne (left) and Defence Minister, Marise Payne uneasily sharing the defence portfolio. Even their names Pyne-Payne are uneasily similar. 

(Photo courtesy The Australian).

PREDICTION

Defence Industry Minister, Christopher Pyne who uneasily shares the defence portfolio with the actual Defence Minister, Marise Payne, will oust her by late February 2017.

Late December to early February is the most frequent period for Australian ministerial changes/shakeups.

REASONS

Christopher Pyne is an outspoken threat to an increasingly desperate Prime Minister Turnbull. Turnbull is barely clinging to office with a slim majority.

Marise Payne, emerged from obscurity in September 2015. She was very much the appointment of Turnbull - when Turnbull's stocks were high. As Turnbull's stocks decline (weakened by the 2016 Federal Election) Marise Payne's legitimacy declines.

The very quiet Marise Payne has missed opportunities, that the defence portfolio offers, for essential political grandstanding. 

Christopher Pyne is ambitious, extraverted and very senior to Marise Payne in time served as a Minister and Cabinet Minister.

Christopher Pyne has been frustrated, since becoming Defence Industry Minister (since 19 July 2016)  about having to frequently share decisions and functions with Marise Payne.

Marise Payne has largely completed her best role, policy review (2016 White Paper, accampanying documents) and oversaw policy presentation for the selection of the DCNS submarine (Shortfin).

Marise Payne probably has already overseen substantial planning concerning the Offshore Patrol Vessel and Future Frigate selection processes. Further selection and implementation work could be done under just one Defence Minister. 

Marise Payne (a Senator from NSW) has insufficiently performed large parts of a defence minister's role, for example international defence policy sound bites (why hasn't she criticised China over the South China Sea?). 

Marise can be moved, with honour, sideways, into another ministerial job that is heavy on policy review (health, education, welfare?). This also maintains the numbers of NSW politicians in the overall Turnbull Ministry.

Marise Payne's health may be putting pressure on her position.

MEDIA ARTICLE

DENNIS SHANAHAN of The Australian in part reported 29 November 2016 – http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/defence/marise-payne-surgery-adds-to-reshuffle-rumours/news-story/479572c92b609e40d7ab27d5dcb28834:

 “Defence Minister Marise Payne’s illness and surgery have increased speculation in Coalition ranks that there will be a ministerial reshuffle [six senior portfolios] just before Christmas or in the first quarter of next year...Yesterday Senator Payne issued a statement about her absence for the past 10 days, revealing the surgery as questions about her future intensified. She said she expected a “full recovery” but did not say when she would return to work...

Senator Payne’s illness — an abdominal infection requiring surgery last weekend...suggesting Senator Payne may have to be relieved of her job...But yesterday she released a statement that said she would not attend the Senate again this week and “underwent surgery over the weekend to address a severe abdominal infection for which she had been previously receiving treatment. 

Senator Payne will have missed the final two weeks of the Parliamentary sitting year.

Some Liberal MPs have been critical of her performance as Defence Minister since the Prime Minister appointed her as the first woman to the post when he took over from Mr Abbott last year.

Senator Payne’s Defence portfolio was split and responsibility for the massive defence projects over the next decades given to Christopher Pyne as Minister for Defence Industry, a move seen as a weakening of her position."

Pete