Anonymous on August
6, 2024 commented “The violence looks like it will spread beyond Lebanon” pointing to Howard Altman’s article
Scramble Underway To Prepare For Looming
Iranian Retribution Strike On Israel dated August 5, 2024
at https://www.twz.com/news-features/scramble-underway-to-prepare-for-looming-iranian-retribution-strike-on-israel
Pete Comment
The need for an Israeli pre-emptive missile, drone and aircraft strike against
Iranian missile and drone launch sites may be necessary assuming, unlike April
13, 2024, Iran does not intend to "telegraph" its intention
to launch a major missile and drone strike against Israel.
As I commented as "pete747303e046b1699"
on April 27, 2024 at
https://intelnews.org/2024/04/26/01-3342/#comments
on IntelNews
:
"This short term redemption was possible because Iran apparently gave
those Arab countries (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jorden, and Iraq) a few days notice
that Iran would be sending those drones and missiles through their airspace on
the way to Israel. Unsurprisingly some or all of those Arab countries forwarded
the warnings to Israel and the US. Also Israel and the US, no doubt by
intelligence means, intercepted Iran’s warnings to those Arab countries.
I think Iran may have even telegraphed its intentions far and wide for all to
hear in order to signal its displeasure, but not to cause too much death and
destruction in Israel."
If, in August 2024, Iran gives no such warning, then death and destruction in
Israel may be considerable.
However, a pre-emptive Israeli strike may further escalate matters if Israel
adds additional items to the existing Iranian ballistic missile, SAM and drone
launch site target list. Such an extended list might include command and
control centres containing senior and undercover Iranian Revolutionary Guards, regular Iranian military officers and Iranian proxy groups in Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Further escalation might be triggered by US pre-emptive and/or retaliatory
strikes (in support of Israel) against Iran and/or its proxies.
This may provide a pretext for Russia, part sponsor of Iran, to enter the conflict in ways
unexpected. Russia may also exert more offensive effort in Ukraine, while the US and the Western world generally, are distracted by the Middle East-Iranian situation.
The misadventures of AUKUS robot AlboGov never cease. I publish on subs, other naval, nuclear weapons & broad political issues. Aussie sub changes are glacial: talk rather than actual new subs. The 1st Collins LOTE may secretly concern the US Combat System & be ready 2029. Trump may decide to cancel the AUKUS Virginia offer due to USN advice it needs all operational SSNs right through to the 2040s. My colleagues Shawn C and Gessler are excellent writers. Pete.
August 6, 2024
Israel vs Iran Exchanges Could Escalate Wars: Ukraine
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8 comments:
Fallout from the assassination continues:
"In response to the assassination of former Hamas Political
Chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, the Islamic
Republic has arrested over 20 senior intelligence officers
and military officials, as well as staff workers at the
military-run guesthouse, The New York Times reported on
August 4. A day prior, The Independent Persian claimed that
some 40 members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’
(IRGC) Ansar al-Mahdi Protection Unit were arrested shortly
after the assassination."
Source:
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2024/08/analysis-mass-arrests-and-conflicting-narratives-following-the-haniyeh-assassination.php
====================================
"An official in the Joint Operations Command in Iraq
revealed on Tuesday that a second attack targeted Ain
Al-Asad airbase, which houses US forces, in the western
Iraqi governorate of Anbar.
The Iraqi security official told Al-Ain News that five
missiles launched by armed groups supported by Iran
targeted Ain Al-Asad airbase, where the international
coalition forces led by the United States are
stationed."
Source:
https://www.iraqinews.com/iraq/second-attack-targets-ain-al-asad-airbase-within-24-hours/
The DOJ says a man with Iranian ties in New York tried
to hire hitmen, a female spy, and a fake protest mob to
assassinate US officials:
"Asif Raza Merchant, 46, was arrested on July 12 and has
been accused by federal prosecutors of having close ties
with Iran's government.
The Justice Department said he'd planned to hire hitmen to
carry out the assassinations, as well as a woman who
would perform "reconnaissance" and 25 people who would
stage a protest as a distraction after the killings."
Source:
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/doj-says-man-iranian-ties-041714883.html
Thanks Anonymous at 8/08/2024 3:14 AM
This highly complex article https://uk.news.yahoo.com/doj-says-man-iranian-ties-041714883.html you point to dated Aug 7, 2024 also provided summary points:
"The [US] DOJ said on Tuesday it's charged a Pakistani man with plotting assassinations of US officials.
Asif Merchant is accused of having ties to Iran and trying to hire hitmen in New York for the killings.
While the DOJ has not mentioned who was targeted, Donald Trump was reported to be one of those under threat."
I think this is unlikely to happen and just too far-fetched in general but somebody at Jerusalem Post considered this worth printing so...
https://m.jpost.com/middle-east/article-813485?dicbo=v2-rnznamz&obbow
"Several Arab sources reported Tuesday that if the conflict between Iran and Israel escalates, Pakistan plans to supply Iran with Shaheen-III medium-range ballistic missiles."
Hi Gessler at 8/08/2024 5:26 PM
I agree with you, mainly because Iran already has its own long range cruise and ballistic missiles in their hundreds or thousands.
Demonstrating that - on April 13, 2024 Iran fired 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles at Israel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel#Launching_of_missiles_and_drones.
"some of the missile types used by Iran were the Emad with a warhead of 750 kg, Ghadr-110 with a warhead of between 650 kg and 1000 kg, Kheibar Shekan with a 500 kg warhead, and probably Shahab-3B with a warhead of 700 kg."
Almost all were shot down by Israel and its allies (especially the US) - many before the missiles reached Israeli airspace. While other Iranian missiles crashed before they reached Israel due to technical defects.
Another issue is Pakistan's ambiguity of owning convention HE warheads and nuclear warheads on its missiles. If Pakistan gave Iran missiles there may be a possible, if remote but serious issue that some missiles might have nuclear warheads. Even this remote possibility might lead to US and Israeli pre-emptive strikes against Pakistan before Pakistani missiles could be transferred to Iran.
Regards Pete
Love what the Ukrainians are now doing, by crossing into Kursk, they’ve inverted Russian intentions, and Putin’s cronies are now scrambling to counter them. In the meantime, this at least pauses Iran’s anticipated attack on Israel.
It’s like Prigozhin’s parade - the longer the Ukrainians are in Kursk, the weaker Putin gets. I’m actually hoping for a Ukrainian Thunder Run to punch North towards Moscow.
The Pakistanis and Iranians don’t like each other - they’ve had border tensions for decades, and have been using SRBMs and drones in a low level conflict against each other. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67999465
Hi Shawn at 8/10/2024 7:51 PM
Yes its true the Pakistanis and Iranians are often scuffling, making Pakistan giving or selling missiles to Iran remote.
I'm just hoping Putin doesn't become so angry at the Ukrainians being on Russian territory in the Kursk region that he escalates things. For example Russian forces damaging Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant into meltdown and/or blowing up the dam(s) that keep it cool. Poison gas is another not yet used Russian weapon.
Pete
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-fully-ready-to-add-to-fleet-2nd-sub-with-n-tipped-missiles/articleshow/112433199.cms
Update on Indian SSN program.
"Parallelly, on the conventional (non-nuclear) warfare front, the around Rs 40,000 crore project to indigenously construct two nuclear-powered submarines, armed with torpedoes, anti-ship and land-attack missiles, is now before the PM-led Cabinet Committee on Security for the final nod after repeated iterations and inter-ministerial consultations, another source said."
"It will take at least a decade to build the first two SSNs, which will be around 95% indigenous, while the next four will be approved at a later stage, the source said."
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