France's two Subs & Exploration Offer to the Philippines

Riyaz ul Khaliq for Turkey’s Anadolu Agency (AA) October 18, 2022 reported  a seemingly odd offer “France wants to explore Filipino waters in exchange for  French submarines [presumably Scorpenes]: Report"

"Manila says deal not easy since it involves constitutional process."

Pete Comment

The Philippine economy has sufficiently grown enough to buy new naval vessels. Buying submarines is a medium term aim. 

Even in the unlikely circumstance that France would offer two Scorpenes to the Philippines completely “free”, other submarine necessities (training, spare parts, regular upgrades and repairs) run into $100s millions over time.

Also just two subs is usually too few in a world where a minimum of three vessels (as in the "Rule of Thirds") dominates most navies' thinking (Malaysia and Chile being exceptions). So the Philippine Navy, after taking on two “free” Scorpenes, may realise that paying for a third Scorpene (this time at full cost) might make more sense. Looking to the more distant future – if the Philippines became a customer for French Scorpenes it might remain a customer for a future generation of fully paid for French subs.    

French Government owned Naval Group has been interested in selling Scorpenes to the Philippines for several years. Naval Group’s desire to "give" has been heightened by Australia's cancellation of the French Attack-class submarine deal, the Netherland’s delay in choosing a Walrus-class replacement, India’s delay in the P-75(I) project, Poland's delay in the Kobben-class replacement, still early days in the process of a French Scorpene sale to Indonesia and Morocco may be interested in buying.

Mentioned in the article is that South Korea and Japan are also wishing to sell submarines to the Philippines. Germany, Sweden and now Spain might logically also wish to sell. Who knows whether Russia (the Kilo builder) is also eyeing the Philippine market, something more viable after Russia lives down the Ukraine invasion stigma. 

It is unclear whether France's alleged "exploration" offer is a media beatup. If true the offer to "explore waters" can be seen as a sweetener of alliance support wrapped up in submarines to the Philippines, This is given much of the water that the Philippines calls the "West Philippine Sea" is more commonly called the "South China Sea". Hence France would be exploring those waters in a degree of confrontation with China. France could claim to be exploring, or FONOPing, on the Philippines' behalf.