In Rajesh Ahujh's "MY TAKE" at IDRW(dot)org on May 3, 2022 he wrote:
"Its Time that Project-76 supersedes Project-75I" at
https://idrw.org/its-time-that-project-76-supersedes-project-75i/
Pete Comment
India may be slow to mature new submarine projects compared to China, but it is far faster than Australia.
Australia launched its latest submarine, HMAS Rankin in 2001.
In that time India has leased Chakra II SSN in 2011, launched several Kalvari SSKs since 2015 and commissioned two Arihant-class SSBNs since 2016.
23 comments:
The simplest and most practical thing they could do is to build 6 more scorpenes with the latest advances (AIP 2G, LIB, etc.), before moving on to their own indigenous design.
India has picked up expertise from HDW and DCNS. It now needs a steady sub build program. Ideally one SSK every 2 years atleast to ensure the lines are warm.
I see naval assets mirroring developments in air assets. IN, as I mentioned in the past, will need SSBN, SS(G)N, SSK, XLUUV and smaller UUVs with proper offensive and defensive roles, not unlike a game of Go or Chess. That is how I see the PLAN and USN going already.
The IN needs to move pass its obsession with some gold-plated P-75(I) sumbmarine.
The current requirments for the P-75(I) with large size, advanced AIP and prefernece for Li-ion batteries and VLS cells are basically only matched by the KSS-III.
The KSS-III submarine was not built overnight. The South Koreans started with the Type-209 and gradually built their domestic capabilities over decades, building more than 18 submarines before the KSS-III.
Both P-75(I) and P-76 should have been a quieter and larger Kalvari-class follow on with AIP and whatever improvments they could incorporate in a reasonable time.
India has no need for a SSK like the KSS-III submarine which is basically trying to do a SSN's job with conventional propulsion. A fleet of 24 AIP equiped Kalvari-class and Kalvari-class derivatives would serve just fine in the BoB or Arabian Sea while also being cheaper and faster to produce.
The KSS-III submarine role is better filled by a future class of SSN submarines which would be much more suited to the large size and range and VLS capabilities that they desire,
Reading of the P75 project, I can't help wondering if India should be building a "son of Collins" class SSK. The size and range would be attractive for Indian Ocean operations. They could build them a lot faster than we could.
ASC owns a lot of the IP.
Very apt comment. A Kalvari based steady build with addition of AIP/LiB over time should suffice and if 1 kalvari per 20-24 months can roll off the lines it should keep the lines warm enough. In the midterm 2 fleet SSNs with 15-16 SSKs (plus 1 added steadily) till the IN has 6 SSBNs, 6-8 SSNs and 20-24 SSKs should ensure 9 chokepoint coverage and more if USN, JMSDF, RAN can all collaborate
To Anon @7:08 AM on August 13
I fully concur. Additional Scorpene/Kalvari-class with improvements in the short/medium-term followed by SSNs in the long term is the option that makes the most sense.
However, the people in charge of making defence acquisition decisions in India are not known for taking the sensible option.
Cheers
The Australians abandoned trying to get a SSK with SSN capabilities after wasting much time and money.
They were absolutely right in doing so. No reason to try to build a SSK with SSN capabilities when you can just build a SSN.
India has even more reason to go down the SSN route given that building and operating a SSN in India should be much easier since the basic infrastructure for nuclear submarines is already in place.
Hi Anonymouses, GhalibKabir and Gessler.
I agree additional Scorpenes in the short/medium-term followed by SSNs in the long term is the option that makes the most sense.
After all 6 Kalvari Scorpenes are commissioned it makes logistical, spare parts, training and low price sense to build another 6 Scorpenes. But this time with Lithium-ion Batteries or NOT if Naval Group cannot mature LIBs technology in 3 years.
Over the the 14 years since Project 75(I) was conceived (in 2008) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project-75_(India)_submarine#Progress LIBs have been the fastest growing submarine propulsion innovation. This is while 75(I)'s requirement for AIP has held up the project, with no end in sight. Hopefully Naval Group can develop LIBs even if at Sea 2nd/3rd generation Naval Group AIP is too far in the future.
Also DRDO AIP has promised much but just hasn't delivered for a decade or so.
See https://idrw.org/kilo-and-kalvari-class-to-get-next-gen-lithium-ion-batteries-soon/ indicating Lithium-ion batteries may be on the way for Scorpenes in the medium term.
SSNs
At the same time development-build of 6 Indian Alpha class SSNs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_75_Alpha
is critical as SSNs are the main defence for Indian SSBNs against Chinese SSNs.
Regards Pete
European suppliers have all an offer with Li batteries.The preferred technology in Europe is the LiFePO4 system pionneered by Saft but also recently by FAAM for the italian U212 NFS
Naval, TKMS and Navantia have agreements with Saft.The LiFePO4 system is intrinsically safe,shows long life (2000+cycles) flat discharge curve and rapid charge.Selected by Tesla , BMW,aircraft ect.Do not use exotic materials such as Mn, Ni or Co.Will likely dominates the automotive market on large scale
It is not however as performing in term of power density (25/30 % less) as the LiCo or similar technology used in Jap/SK that requires extensive safety and battery management system and are essentially a scale up of consumer electronics market
To fully exploit its rapid charge ( indiscretion ratio divided by 3)very large diesel engines are required
One move from 2/3 days to typically 5 to 7 days usually at higher speed
It is undestood the the Scorpene for Indonesia incorporates this technology
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/indian-p-75i-submarine-plan-unrealistic-timelines-cannot-be-met-russian-designers/articleshow/93573148.cms?from=mdr
Elaborating on the concerns with the project, Andrey Baranov, the Deputy Director General of Rubin Design Bureau has said that the requirement is for a brand new submarine design that would present difficulties at the manufacturing stage. Rubin is the leading Russian design bureau for a range of submarines, including the Kilo class used by India.
“Our major concern is that the requirements specified by the Navy and the timeline for the project are not matching. The Indian Navy would like to have the latest, state of the art submarine with powerful weapons, an Air Independent System and high stealth. No one in the world has such a submarine ready,” Baranov said at the Army 2022 exhibition.
Thanks Anonymous [at Aug 16, 2022, 2:53:00 PM]
I've also come across a link https://defenceaviationpost.com/russia-on-the-indian-navys-submarine-plans-drastic-adjustments-are-required-for-the-p75i-tender/ :
"Russia On The Indian Navy’s Submarine Plans: “Drastic Adjustments” Are Required For The P75i Tender"
"...In 2008, according to Baranov, his office received the initial papers from India for the P75I project.
“You can check how long it has been since the last Request for Proposal (RFP) was released. Therefore, we believe that a complete book can be written about Russian involvement in P75I,” he stated.
According to Baranov, the main issue for Russia is the discrepancy between the Indian Navy’s deadlines and the requirements it has set forth.
...But the RFP’s (request for proposals) specifications call for an extremely constrained timeline. And the designer is given a lot of responsibilities. In addition, the designer has little control over the Indian construction process, according to him..."
This pursuit of a ‘perfect’ anything incl submarines ends up being the enemy of the good. Unless there is compelling arguments for a radically redesigned SSK, incremental adjustments of the Scorpene should do nicely for now. In fact the IN can order a 100 or so F21 torpedoes first to ensure operational capabilities are not compromised first in the Kalvaris
Hi GhalibKabir @Aug 17, 2022, 2:25:00 PM
Very true about "This pursuit of a ‘perfect’ anything incl submarines ends up being the enemy of the good."
This applies to India's need for additional and more modern torpedoes and completing Kalvari commissionings.
India, like Australia, faces limited resource choice dilemmas for new SSK AND/OR SSNs.
India could wait forever for "perfect AIP" for existing Kalvaris and for future P-75I and P-76 SSKs
or India could go the way of the US, UK and France in dropping future SSK projects and only building SSNs from now on.
Nuclear reactors beat AIP anyday.
Australia could spend its whole existing 2% GDP Defence Budget building Interim SSKs AND 8 future SSNs
when, like India, Australia may have a more pressing need for Nuclear Weapons mounted on rapid launch second strike long range land based missiles as a deterrent against China.
Once an Australian "Agni series" program is matured Australia can embark on an "Arihant-Alpha" like SSBN-SSN program.
Regards Pete
N power is defo any day better. However, I do think an SSN-SSBN fleet only is likely to be prohibitive in terms of cost.
Also naval needs necessitate SSKs and mini subs and UUVs in and around Indian waters.
That said i do expect the proportion of SSNs in Indian sub fleets to rise to possibly 1/4 of the total
To GhalibKabir
I am not so sure
Once you "bite the bullet" of the huge front end and fixed costs associated with Nuclear infra in the broad sense...
The marginal cost maybe 2 to 3 time/unit but the strategic and tactical value is of a different order of magnitude for a blue water navy
-TKMS record with AIP is Bremen-La Rota (close to Gibraltar) in 3 weeks submerged.. this is the time needed by a Fr Rubis class SSN,fairly routinely ,from Toulon to Noumea in New Caledonia in a completely submerged mode around the Cape and Australia
.Contrarily to coastal , strait areas ect ,in an ambush mode.In fact SSK with AIP move slower sometimes than 1780 fully rigged sailing Navy ships ..Japan , Brazil,..Australia ! find little value in AIP in opposition to Greece , Israel ,Italy, Germany (baltic)or Singapour
-for the NW Atlantic (from Spain to Newfounland up to Greenland and Norway (where the action is likely to be..) the French navy estimates that one SSN is Worth 4 to 6 SSK
(Double crew, number of days at sea underwater and surface area covered (15 to 20 times larger by unit time)
-In the escort mode around a carrier group or any significant asset, SSK are just too slow
Hi Ghalib
While SSNs are expensive they form the best defence for India's No.1 nuclear deterrent which will be full size SSBNs maybe before 2030.
India muddling along to put AIP in a new class of SSKs may well hold up India's SSN Project https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_75_Alpha by 5 years.
Hi anon and Pete. I will partly agree and disagree. The problem is SSNs have definite advantages in transit times and hunting abilities, but, in a real ‘flaming war’, a barracuda SSN with 20 weapon racks is not much different from a scorpene with 18-20 racks. An Astute with a mix of 38 for missiles and torpedoes is a bit more better but if you in a hot war, how much does it make a difference? I would argue here that numbers in the SSK ranks would make a material difference.
Now if the Virginia type with the VPL and stowage for 60 plus shots would make a material difference and the SSN advantage will be more clear.
What I think might be needed could well be a hybrid of Ohio SSGN and Virginia SSN, though I would say the Virginia is a mini SSGN already. We need a SSGN that can act as both as a long range missile launcher and a SSN SSK hunter…Australia might be well served by block V Virginias and not Astutes and now thinking of it the short fin barracuda would have been a dud in a hot war.
I can elaborate more… but will leave it here for now
Hi GhalibKabir @Aug 26, 2022, 4:40:00 AM
Yes. I'm also inclined to "leave it here for now".
Australia is great at talk, reviews and beginning submarine projects, but completed its last sub in 2003 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMAS_Rankin_(SSG_78).
In treading water Australia is gradually moving towards the:
- "SSN" Taskforce Report https://www.defence.gov.au/about/taskforces/nuclear-powered-submarine-task-force
- Sometime before, during or after the Strategic Review Report https://www.defence.gov.au/about/reviews-inquiries/defence-strategic-review
- Sometime next year.
If all goes like greased lightning Australia's next sub will be commissioned in 2048, if Adelaide can stretch out the deadlines and budget for as long as possible - to maximise delays for dollars.
In comparison India is actually quick in launching conventional AND nuclear boats.
Regards Pete
I can sympathise with the Australian defence ministry as the real choice needs to be made in Washington and not at ACT. They have gone for the SSN already.
The US needs to decide if it will equip RAN for both sea control and sea denial or will equip it only as a support wing of a quad naval force. That choice should make a big difference on what sub will be given - the astute or the Virginia block 5 based. Of course it is a given the helicopter carrier of Juan Carlos type in Sydney etc will be accompanied by SSGN block 5 as escorts, missile boats and SSN hunters. US will need to lead efforts to marshal support for waivers from the NSG and IAEA besides helping with submarine supply.
SSK OTH only need be deployed uptill the outer EEZ to give a two layer ring against the PLA-N interspersed with air assets, USVs and UUVs.
Hi GhalibKabir @Aug 26, 2022, 6:03:00 PM
Yes, its more up to Washington making Virginia Block 5s, with their ample VLS capacity, available to Australia. Meanwhile the folks in Canberra have little leverage over the US giant but more sway over UK. Virginias will be in continuous US production for the next 15+ years while Astutes are ending in 2027 with no restarting until about 2045.
Australia's 2 x Canberra class LHDs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canberra-class_landing_helicopter_dock Juan Carlos variants, are not geared for medium-high intensity warfare. No good in a Taiwan scenario. Even if the Canberras were retrofitted with F-35Bs they could only carry about 7. 7 is too few for continuous air patrols to protect the odd flotilla Australia could send towards Taiwan.
Australian involvement in Taiwan might likely pan out to 2 Destroyer/Frigates and a supply ship, which would require the US SSN protection you mention
Australia is already equipped with a handful of Collins SSKs and the "air assets, USVs and UUVs" you mention would be useful supplements to cover the submarine shortfall until Aus SSNs are ready in about 2048.
Regards Pete
You are right about the Juan Carlos class ships. While 14 F-35 won’t be exactly useless, I don’t think we are envisaging Australia sending a flotilla into the SCS unaided. Even a neighbourhood drongo boozed up at the local bottle O won’t think of such a daft scheme. 😂.
Any scenario involving RAN assets within 200-300 nm of Taiwan will happen if and only if US, Japanese and Korean surface and submarine assets are out in full force. (Likely Indian, Vietnamese and singaporean assets will be involved at such a stage too.)
For instance, if the Juan Carlos can be part of a flotilla with US Burke class destroyers and bunch of SSNs then there is much meaning in even 7 extra F-35s on CAP.
If we are talking big regional confrontation, the only way that is gonna be credible is if US, UK, Japan and Korea truly put their skin in the game and signal to the CCP politburo that they are dead serious about going all the way up the escalation ladder if required and are not bluffing at all. Basically we are talking doo doo hitting the fan big time. I hope we don’t see such a thing in our life times.
The US plainly needs to show its skin in the game by setting up an extra RAN specific Virginia Block V line asap with attendant facility build up at Osborne. Nothing else will do !
Hi GhalibKabir @Aug 29, 2022, 7:39:00 PM
There are so many current and future Chinese aircraft, missile and naval assets that could upset an Australian flotilla as it chugs away towards Taiwan. This flotilla would need to travel the speed of its slowest vessel - the supply ship's 16kn? cruising speed.
Chinese DF-21D and DF-26 anti-ship missiles at Chinese bases in the Solomons and South China Sea islands, Chinese SSKs and SSNs, could destroy Australia surface vessels long before they get anywhere near the Taiwan theatre. So future Aus SSNs (if China "cooperates" by waiting until 2048?) might be the only viable Australian vessel types to make a difference around Taiwan.
Regards Pete
You are assuming there will be no ASBM, ALCM and other hypersonic vehicles being developed by India, US and Japan etc between now and 2048 and shared with Australia.
India’s Agni Prime is steadily catching up on similar lines as its Chinese ASBM counterparts DF-26 and 21. I am sure the even the gormless moron of a clueless US will also start testing ASBMs and hypersonic vehicles in much more bigger way. Your scenario assumes way too much passivity by China’s rivals me thinks…. If that much passivity indeed comes to pass … india US etc might as well consume some pesticide and commit suicide. 😆 😂
Zhongnanhai will only take absolute threat of a teeth knocking punch of an escalation risk seriously. India US and whatever Pentad or triad better be serious….
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