Thailand Puzzling Whether to Buy Chinese Submarines

A model of a Chinese S20 (or S-20) submarine at an arms trade show. Note that it is being marketed by "CSOC" - which is the China Shipbuilding & Offshore international Co (CSOC) Ltd.

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A Chinese Type 039A or Type 041 Yuan class submarine - with many Russian Kilo characteristics. Thailand has been puzzling whether to buy 3 small version Yuans - called "S-20" or "S-26T".

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For the latest on Thailand's on-again, off-again interest in submarines see Submarine Matters Does Thailand Need Submarines At All? August 12, 2015.

COMMENT

Please connect with my Chinese Yuans for Thailand and Pakistan? June 27, 2015. It looks like I was right (in the June 27 article) in being cautious - I said "China is an unconfirmed choice" and "If China is finally chosen".

The whole process of Thailand selecting Chinese submarines looked strange from the beginning. The "process" being a mere Naval Committee deciding on Chinese submarines and then publicising the decision before the Thai Cabinet had signed off on it. 

It all looks like a face saving formula where the Thai military government only indirectly proposed submarines. But high defence spending was/is unpopular with sections of the public. Other competing spending priorities, such as reformed healthcare, were raised. 

Perhaps only two Chinese submarines, or other subs, might be bought at some point in the future.

ARTICLE

The Financial Express, July 16, 2015 reports http://www.financialexpress.com/article/null/thailand-puts-1bn-chinese-submarines-purchase-on-hold/101548/:

Thailand puts $1bn Chinese submarines purchase on hold

Thailand has put on hold the purchase of submarines from China, the Thai defence minister said on Wednesday, raising questions about its commitment to acquiring its first such vessels. Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwan said this month the navy had approved a 36 billion baht ($1.06 billion) plan to buy three submarines from China.

Thailand, a staunch U.S. ally for decades, has stepped up engagement with China as China increases its influence in the region with loans and aid for infrastructure, and as a 2014 coup in Thailand strained Thai-U.S. relations.

Prawit, known to be a strong backer of the plan to get submarines, told reporters the acquisition was on hold while the navy re-considered the role of the vessels and their cost. “We will wait for now and not introduce it to the cabinet for approval,” Prawit told reporters. “For now, the navy must inform itself and educate itself on whether the submarines are worth it and how much they will add to the Thai navy.”

Thailand has been considering getting submarines since the 1990s with both Germany and South Korea seen as possible suppliers, though deals have never been concluded. In November, Thailand’s navy chief said he had revived plans to procure submarines.

Officials say Thailand’s quest for submarines makes sense strategically and could help ensure freedom of navigation in the Gulf of Thailand if territorial disputes in the energy-rich South China Sea blow up. Vietnam has taken possession of three Russian-built Kilo-attack submarines and has three more on order. Singapore, which has four second-hand submarines, has ordered two from Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems . Indonesia has ordered three from South Korea’s Daewoo Shipbuilding.

China this year surpassed Germany, France and Britain to become the world’s third-largest arms exporter, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute think-tank. China was the first major power to acknowledge Thailand’s ruling junta following a May 2014 military coup."

Pete