In view of the Russia-US alliance (RUS)
Australia looks to China, free of any pangs as to our traditional links or
kinship with America. [1] considering [2]
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Labor_Party#World_War_II_and_beyond
[2] https://interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/china-versus-america-on-global-trade/#map
Australia's newfound knowledge of Virginia SSN technology will be
of considerable value in the transfer of technology prior to our purchase of Type 095 SSNs. [3]
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| RSS Invincible, image courtesy: Republic of Singapore Navy |
Minister Ng's announcement did not reveal any specific details on when the two new submarines will be ordered or delivered, but as of March 2025, two Invincible-class boats are in commission in the Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN), while two boats remain in Kiel, Germany, one for crew training while the last boat fits out. Dr. Ng has indicated that he expects these four submarines to fully commission by 2028.
Considering the original two Invincible-class boats were ordered in 2013, the new third batch should see significant modifications to the design and incorporate new technologies, such as lithium-ion batteries and increased Unmanned Underwater Vessel (UUV) storage.
The RSN's current commissioned submarine fleet consists of two Invincible-class and two Archer-class (ex-Vastergotland A17) boats, as the last two Challenger-class boats retired in late 2024, leaving the RSN with four operational AIP boats.
As I mentioned in my June 2023 article on the state of Singapore's submarine forces, the two Archer-class boats were purchased from Kockums in 2005, undertook a major refit that included the addition of a Stirling AIP module, and commissioned in 2011 and 2013. This should enable the Archer-class to remain viable boats into the early 2030s.
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| First MRCV keel laying, image: Naval News |
My own opinion on the speed of the MRCV program is due to two primary factors:
1. The Victory-class missile corvettes are now 33 years old and worn out.
2. Once the MRCV construction program is completed, the yard will then switch to the production of the still mysterious Joint Multi Mission Ship (JMMS) program.
We should find out more about the MRCV program and perhaps JMMS, as the upcoming IMDEX Asia 2025.
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| RSAF Fokker-50 MPA: image courtesy Republic of Singapore Air Force |
Other navies that boast nuclear-powered submarines, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, are known to regularly use them during lengthy and complex warship missions to gather valuable intelligence on potential adversaries.
Meanwhile, commercial airline pilots who flew over the Tasman Sea last week have told the ABC they monitored radio communications from the Chinese warships to military surveillance aircraft as far back as a week ago, warning about possible live-firing activity.
"The Chinese vessel made a broadcast on 121.5 [VHF frequency] about a live firing drill, telling the NZ aircraft to remain at a safe distance," one international airline pilot told the ABC when describing a flight on Tuesday, February 18.
"The NZ aircraft replied that under international law they can be there, it occurred a couple of times. Many civilian aircraft heard it and told the Chinese to 'go away.'"
This week aviation officials revealed they were first informed that a Chinese live-firing exercise had begun when a Virgin Australia pilot relayed warnings they had picked up mid-flight via an emergency radio frequency."
[Also see "NZ defence minister warns of
'extremely capable' Chinese warships in Tasman Sea" of February 24, 2025 at
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-24/chinese-warship-missiles-in-tasman-sea-nz-minister-warning/104973290
]
Andrew Greene, Defence Correspondent for Australia’s ABC News has written the excellent article below. It includes a major section on Hypersonic missiles for future Australian SSNs.
PETE COMMENT
I have written extensively about hypersonic missiles for the last 13 years https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/search?q=hypersonic in connection with future Australian Virginia SSNs.
See my “Comments” here https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2008/10/hypersonic-missile-research-and.html
Preferably Australia's future hypersonic missiles should be nuclear tipped when the threat from China warrants
it - say in the 2040s.
See my discussion of Australian Virginia or UK-AUKUS SSHNs (H for Hypersonic
missiles) instead of the terms SSGNs or SSNs for Australia. See my articles https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2023/07/sshns-or-xluuvs-are-australias.html
and https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/05/australias-nuclear-weapon-sshns-2030s.html
.
Our Hypersonic missile warheads might need to be developed by Australia or preferably sourced from the US under yet another US-Ally nuclear sharing agreement.
The US shares nuclear weapons with five NATO countries: Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands not to mention dangerously with NATO country Turkey https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_sharing. This is separate from the 1958 US-UK nuclear weapon sharing arrangement.
ARTICLE
Senior military figures insist "strong and tangible" progress being made on AUKUS and future Australian submarines are "highly likely" to carry hypersonic missiles.
New budgetary analysis for the US Congress has outlined the difficulties America's shipyards face to increase nuclear-powered submarine production so that Virginia-class boats can eventually be sold to Australia under the $368 billion AUKUS program.
The blunt assessment of US industrial challenges has been published as senior military figures express confidence that the ambitious AUKUS endeavour will succeed and predict future Australian submarines are “highly likely” to carry hypersonic missiles.
Under the AUKUS plan Australia is expecting to receive at least three second-hand Virginia-class boats from the US beginning in the early 2030s, before eventually building a new class of boat with the United Kingdom known as SSN-AUKUS.
RAN Submarine Petty Officer Mark has
been awarded a Conspicuous Service Medal in the Australia Day (January 26,
2025) honours for his rescue of a fellow submariner.
CPL 3 Michael Rogers’ article which appeared on
the Australian Submarine Agency's website
reports, January 31, 2025, at https://www.asa.gov.au/news/fear-sharks-shelved-line-duty:
“Fear of sharks shelved in the line of duty”
.jpg)
Submariners rarely have to deal with a man overboard,
but one sailor’s action during the nightmare scenario was recognised as part of
the 2025 Australia Day Honours.
HMAS Farncomb was transiting submerged to Hawaii for
Exercise Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) 2022 when it started to experience a noise
interfering with the sonar.
They surfaced “pretty much smack bang in the middle of
Australia and Hawaii” so Petty Officer Mark, an acoustic warfare analyst, and
his team could investigate the noise.
After checking the hull’s forward section for anything
unexpected, Petty Officer Mark was inspecting aft of the fin when he felt the
boat lift beneath his feet.
He looked starboard and noticed a large wave
barrelling towards the sub.
Knowing he wouldn’t make it to safety in time, he
shouted a warning to his team on the forward hull, took shelter on the port
side of the fin, and braced as the wave washed over the bow.
When he looked forward he saw one of his sonar
analysts thrown backwards and washed overboard, weighed down by a bag of tools.
Unable to tell if his shipmate’s life jacket had
inflated or if he was injured, Petty Officer Mark leapt into the ocean after
him.
He swam to his shipmate to ensure he wasn’t hurt and
steered him away from the submarine’s propeller.
They waited about 30 minutes for Farncomb to manoeuvre
and pick them up.
During the wait, Petty Officer Mark remembered why he
hadn’t participated in a swim exercise during 17 years in Navy – a fear of
sharks.
“It didn’t even cross my mind. I remember the water
coming towards me when I dived in and thinking ‘all safety is lost’, because I
knew we would be alone and isolated,” Petty Officer Mark said.
“It wasn't until I started swimming with Adrian in
between my legs and items from the tool bag started popping up around me that
it was like, oh, there could be some hungry fish here.”
Petty Officer Mark reached in his pocket to check his
knife was still there.
“It was tiny and not going to do anything, but [the
shark] was going to earn [the kill],” he said.
After being hauled back on board and making sure his
mate was in good spirits, Petty Officer Mark made his way down the conning
tower to the “days since last incident” count in the seniors’ mess.
“I walked in, still fully dressed and soaked from head
to toe, and wiped the number off the board and put a big fat 0,” he said.
“At the time my adrenaline was pumping but I just
wanted to show people that, yeah, everyone's okay and everything is fine.”
'When the letter came through with the gold crown of
the Governor-General letterhead I thought I was in trouble for something.'
Petty Officer Mark was recognised during the 2025
Australia Day Honours for his outstanding leadership and courage, awarded a
Conspicuous Service Medal for his actions.
“It was a bit of a shock, actually. When the letter
came through with the gold crown of the Governor-General letterhead I thought I
was in trouble for something,” he said.
“I haven’t known too many sailors that have been
recognised like this. So it’s a pleasant surprise but it hasn’t really set in
yet.”
Born and bred in Hobart, Petty Officer Mark joined the
Navy as a boatswain's mate after seeing a 60 Minutes story on boarding
operations in the Gulf, and after five years he wanted more of a challenge.
“As a submariner, the coolest thing you can do is
track other submarines, so that’s what led me down the sonar system path,” he
said.
“Before [Navy] I used to work at Woolworths, so it's a
long way from pushing trolleys in the carpark.”
Looking back, Petty Officer Mark doesn’t think he
would have done anything differently during the daring dive, no matter who was
swept overboard.
“It wouldn't matter what rank or role I was in or what
person it was that went, I think the reaction's the same,” he said.
“I’m still scared of sharks, though, and I probably
still won’t participate in any swim exercises.”
Original story by CPL 3 Michael Rogers.
++++++++++++
Pete Comment
Another biological threat to submariners are polar and brown bears, but not in the Southern Hemisphere.
The russian Navy is known to shoot them and their cubs.
France has never promised to export already developed SSNs (Suffren-class or otherwise) to Australia. The suggestion of retired submarine specialist and a past president of the Submarine Institute of Australia, Peter Briggs, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/aukus-risks-are-piling-up-australia-must-prepare-to-build-french-ssns-instead/ cannot be met due to France's "no SSN export policy" and industrial limitations (see Part One of February 4, 2025).
A. When, in 2016, Australia was seeking a "regionally superior submarine" which would have needed many characteristics of an SSN, DCNS (now Naval Group's) Chief Executive Herve Guillou ambiguously told AAP on March 24, 2016:
"“If, in 2050, Australia wants a nuclear submarine, they [France? or Australia with French assistance?] can design a nuclear submarine” see https://web.archive.org/web/20160403082949/http://indaily.com.au/news/2016/03/24/france-pitches-nuke-sub-option-for-australia/ In 2016 and to this day French government owned Naval Group (NG) made no offer to export an SSN to Australia.
It may be no coincidence that France's completion year for its fourth and final 3rd generation SSBN is 2050. France's single nuclear sub assembly might then be available for new business which would include the SSN successor class to the Suffrens. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNLE_3G#Design_and_operation
Naval Group's ambiguous offer from 2050 to help design an SSN for Australia is later than the UK's offer to joint design (with the US and Australia) the SSN-AUKUS from the late 2030s and build SSN-AUKUS from the early 2040s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SSN-AUKUS .
B. Moving from ambiguous Naval Group commercial spin in 2016 - to a higher authority, French President Macron said in 2022, SSNs should not be sold to Australia.
Macron said the sale of nuclear submarines to Australia “risks increasing tensions with China and make Australia dependent on other countries.” See https://see.news/macron-warns-australias-nuclear-subs-deal-will-not-deliver of 18 November 2022.
C. Whether nuclear submarines use HEU (like the US and UK) or LEU (like France) France's opposition to exporting SSNs to Australia still holds. This is because of French concern over offending China.
Another reason is French unwillingness to risk its most sensitive technical secrets. Here is a 22 July 2022 Australian academic's comment:
"The French government never has exported, or even permitted
formal negotiations to export, the nuclear submarine technology it considers a
crown jewel of its military. Exporting nuclear submarines would require a high
level of bilateral trust, which Morrison shattered and Albanese would need to
rebuild."
Macron is still France's President and he has not altered France's no nuclear submarine exports to Australia policy. Even if France permitted SSN exports to Australia France's/NG's single nuclear submarine assembly line at Cherbourg can only cater for the French Navy's remaining Suffrens, then its new SSBNs, out to 2050.