October 31, 2022

B-52s to be in Australia Part time: B-21s Full time?

Australia’s Government owned ABC News, October 30/31, 2022, reports:

"The United States is preparing to deploy up to six nuclear-capable B-52 bombers to northern Australia, a provocative move experts say is aimed squarely at China.

An investigation by [ABC TV Program] Four Corners can reveal Washington is planning to build dedicated facilities for the giant aircraft at Tindal air base [at Katherine, 320 km southeast] of Darwin.

The US has drawn up detailed plans for what it calls a "squadron operations facility" for use during the Northern Territory dry season, an adjoining maintenance centre and a parking area for "six B-52s".

See the full ABC report here.

Pete Comment

This more than symbolic story comes within limits that:

-  the necessary B-52 parking area at Tindal might only be completed by 2026

and

-  Tindal might only be fully B-52 usable for 5 months a year, around May to September, during the tropical area's "Dry Season".

US bombers have been visiting Australia’s Northern Territory for years. See Submarine Matters’ January 2019 article "US B-2, B-52 and B-1 Bombers Exercising in Australia".

Still the ABC report represents progress in US support for Australia. B-52s can carry conventional and nuclear weapons and could store them at Tindal during periods of high tension with China.

The ABC report could be a curtain raiser for a possible Australian interest in purchasing nuclear-capable US B-21 stealth bombers, for delivery to Aus by 2030 or so. 

In that regard tomorrow (November 1, 2022) Australia’s Defence Strategic Review might be presenting a probably ambiguous “Interim Big Picture Report”.

That Review may be more explicit on February 1, 2023, when it presents its “Final Report” with Recommendations.

October 30, 2022

Taigeis: LIBs: More Powerful Kawasaki Diesels: Table

Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) can be recharged to a higher total capacity and more quickly than Lead-acid Batteries (LABs). But to do this LIBs require more powerful diesels. So Japan has been installing more powerful Kawasaki diesels in its new Taigei-class submarines. 

Wispywood2344 on September 24, 2022 commented + some additions by Pete:

Japan's Soryu Mk.1s [see table below] are equipped with LABs and use conventional diesel gensets [that are likely 2 x 12V25/25SB diesels, each of  2,120kW = 4,240kW maximum power] see table below]

But the LABs can only absorb 60-70% of maximum diesel power - amounting to 3,700 kW (= 2 x 1,850).

This results in an Indiscretion Ratio (IR) of about 9-10% at an average speed of 4kt. This is without using the Soryu Mk.1's Stirling engine AIP. 

The Taigei-class submarines use LIBs instead of LABs. These LIBs can be recharged to a higher extent than the diesels to LABs 70% rating and more quickly. 

The Taigei's likely 2 x 12V25/31S diesel gensets can be run [at a maximum 5,520kW (= 2 x 2,760) with almost all absorbed by the LIBs. This represents 50% more than the Soryu Mk.1's  previous 12V25/25SBs working with LABs [1].

As a result, LIB charging power is greatly increased and the IR, at an average speed of 4kt, is reduced to about 4-5%. 

Pete Comment

More and more countries are adopting LIBs for their submarines, but to quickly recharge the LIBs to their fullest extent requires much more powerful diesels. The world's most common submarine diesel maker, MTU, might need to learn from Japan's Kawasaki what level of genset power will be required. Will MTU 4000s be powerful enough? 

[1] More informations see Japanese Ministry of Defense's Technical Research and Development Institute (TRDI) specification "New Snorkel Generator System (Part.1)". p.10

Number of LIB/"SLH" Modules Disagreement

In the Table below you will see:

-  agreement between Wispywood2344 and Anonymous on 640 LIB (Japanese codename "SLH") modules for submarines 27SS and 28SS

-  but disagreement between them on the number of LIB/SLH modules for 29SS  and 30SS (Wispywood2344 says 640 and Anonymous says 720).

Pete has noted this disagreement in the Table below. 

TABLE

Submarine Matters' Oyashio-Soryu-Taigei Table, as at March 21, 2023. 

SS
No.
Diesel Type
Motor
Build No
Name
Pennant
No.
MoF approved amount ¥
Billions FY
LABs, LIBs, AIP
Laid Down
Laun
-ched
Commi
ssioned
Built
By
5SS Oyashio
8105 Oyashio
SS-590/ TS3608
¥52.2B FY1993
2 x 12V25/25S 
diesels for all
Oyashio class
(each diesel
2,000kW)
LABs only
 Jan 1994
Oct 1996
Mar 1998
 KHI
6SS-15SS
Oyashios 
10 subs
SMC-7?
8106
-8115
various
SS-591-600
¥52.2B per sub
FY1994-FY2003
LABs only
 15SS Feb
2004
15SS
Nov
2006
15SS
Mar 2008
 MHI
&
KHI
16SS
Dragon
class  Mk I
8116
SS-501
¥60B FY2004 
Mk.1 LAB+AIP Soryus have 2 x Kawasaki 
+ a SMC-8 motor
LABs + AIP
Mar 2005
Dec 2007
Mar
2009
MHI
17SS
8117
Unryū
SS-502
¥58.7B FY2005
LABs + AIP
Mar 2006
Oct 2008
Mar
2010
KHI
18SS
8118
Hakuryū
SS-503
¥56.2 FY2006
LABs + AIP
Feb 2007
Oct 2009
Mar
2011
MHI
19SS
8119
Kenryū
SS-504
¥53B FY2007
LABs + AIP
Mar 2008
Nov 2010
Mar
2012
KHI
20SS
8120
Zuiryū
SS-505
¥51B FY2008
LABs + AIP
Mar 2009
Oct 2011
Mar
2013
MHI
21SS LIBs Concept
Research
Project
No 21SS built. It was an 8 year research project on LIBs. 1st LIBs sub launched was 27SS in 2018.
   


22SS
8121
Kokuryū
SS-506
¥52.8B FY2010
LABs + AIP
Jan 2011
Oct 2013
Mar
2015
KHI
23SS
8122
Jinryu
SS-507
¥54.6B FY2011
LABs + AIP
Feb 2012
Oct 2014
7 Mar 2016
MHI
24SS
8123
Sekiryū
SS-508
¥54.7B FY2012
LABs + AIP
KHI
25SS
8124
SS-509
¥53.1B FY2013
LABs + AIP
22 Oct 2013
12 Oct   2016
MHI
26SS
8125
SS-510
¥51.7B FY2014
last SMC-8 motor
LABs + AIP
2014
6 Nov 2017
KHI
27SS a Soryu
"Mk II" as it
has LIBs. 1st
Soryu Mk II 
8126
Oryū
11th
Soryu
SS-511
¥64.4B FY2015 
with 2 12V25/25SB diesels (totaling 4,240kW) 
SMC-8B motor. [Wispy & Anon
agree it has 640 LIB/SLH modules], other improvements
LIBs only
(SLH type)
Nov
2015
4 Oct
2018
2020
MHI
28SS Soryu
Mk II, 12th &
final Soryu
8127
SS-512
¥63.6B FY2016
"2,950t" surfaced
12V25/25SB diesels
[
Wispy & Anon 
agree
 it has 640 LIB/SLH modules],
LIBs
Jan 2017
KHI
29SS
1st
(surfaced)
8128
Taigei
"Big 
whale
"

Used as
a test
sub. Not
opera-
tional
SS-513
¥76B FY2017 (Heisei 29)
Higher ¥76budget 
may be due to 1st of class many changes. 
2 x
4,240kW)[Wispy says 640 LIB/SLH modules, Anon says 720.]
SLH
LIBs
maybe
960

14 Oct
2020
 
9 Mar 2022
MHI

30SS 
2nd Taigei Class 
8129
Hakugei
"White
whale
"
First
opera-
tional
Taigei

SS-514
¥71.5B FY2018 
(Heisei 30)
says 640 LIB/SLH modules, Anon says 720.]
SLH
LIBs
KHI
01SS 
3rd
Taigei Class
8130
Jingei
"Speedy
whale
"
SLH
LIBs
maybe
960+
2024?
MHI
02SS 
4th
Taigei Class 

SS-516
¥B? FY2020 (Reiwa 02)
Improved SLH LIBS. New
2 x 12V25/31S
diesels (totaling
Impro
ved SLH
LIBs
2020?
2022?
2024?
KHI?
03SS
8131?
SS-517
¥B? FY2021
LIBs 
2021?
2023?
2025?
KHI?
04SS
8132?
SS-518
¥B? FY2022
LIBs
2022?
2024?
2026?
MHI?
05SS 
8133?
SS-519
¥B? FY2023
LIBs
2023?
2025?
2027?
KHI?
06SS
8134?
SS-520
¥B? FY2024
LIBs 
2024?
2026?
2028?
MHI?
07SS 
8135?
SS-521
¥B? FY2025
LIBs
2025?
2027?
2029?
KHI?
08SS 
8136?
SS-522
¥B? FY2026

LIBs
2026?
2028?2030?
MHI?
Key to Table: Table information provided exclusively by Anonymous to Submarine MattersLABs = lead-acid batteries, AIP = air independent propulsion, LIBs = Lithium-ion Batteries. 
¥***B
 = Billion Yen. MHI = Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, KHI = Kawasaki Shipbuilding Corporation of Kawasaki Heavy Industries. 
---

October 28, 2022

Aus SSNs With Future Weapon "Ambiguity"

Anonymous, on October 28, 2022 made the following excellent comments: 

Pete. Thanks for [France's SSN offer Should be a Taskforce Plan B] and link back to your previous accurate posts. I share this view to the point that your plan B is now my plan A. 

I note ASPI interviewed Admiral Mead [on October 27, 2022] who remained optimistic about the RN-USN project. Of course it is his job to do so. Yet the fact that he suggested a (now) “14 year old girl” might become the commander of Australia’s first SSN suggests it will take another 20 years.

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australias-navy-is-cultivating-a-nuclear-mindset-says-ssn-taskforce-chief/

Since the announcements that both:

(1) USA are struggling with Virginia program delivery and would have difficulty supporting RAN SSNs before 2040 and

(2) the UK cannot supply the Astute class and would presumably offer Australian participation in the SSN(R] program it is difficult to share Mead’s optimism.

The Columbia SSBN program runs to 2041 assuming no further delay. Starting a US SSN design then assuming a two year drumbeat and 8 year construction time would mean a first RAN SSN by 2049 and 8 not completed until 2063. What will the PLAN have by then? As per your point on US politics, there will be another 4 POTUS elections before that start date.

The UK SSN(R) will best case not complete design till 2026, while the Dreadnought SSBN program runs to 2038. The corresponding start date would give a first RAN SSN by 2046 and 8 by 2060. The UK approach now also has a lot more cost and delivery risk because the SSN(R) design is not complete.

The cost of the US SSN(X) and UK SSN(R) will also be so much higher that they might delay other defence programs, like the Hunter frigates and completion of the F-35 acquisition.

Also the potential decade plus delay in the start of Adelaide sub construction jobs won’t go down well in the new government, which creates political risks for the RAN. What if Labor decides to fund something else instead in the mean time?

So I’d rather we set out on a more achievable and affordable task sooner and got 8 French SSNs that would still be regionally superior to Chinese or Russian SSNs, than wait to build the world’s best SSNs and possibly never receive them.

Pete Comments

Thanks Anonymous. Taking your points in turn.

Yes a French SSN offer, if firm, may well be more useful and relevant for Australia to face a China that refuses to wait for the late 2040s AUKUS sub in-service date. Australia rejecting a French SSN option on refueling grounds seems a false goalpost when it is recalled the French fuel is lower proliferation sensitive LEU. Also amidst the $10s Billions of SSN infrastructure Australia will need to construct an Adelaide or HMAS Stirling LEU refueling capability could be part of it.

I think a US SSN, be it late model Virginia or SSN(X), will be built to include such high anti-China, anti-Russia ASW Seawolf-like specs, that its higher cost and technical sensitivity will prevent export to Australia. The Astutes going out of production, UK SSBN production hiatus, and SSN(R) high ASW specs and cost and delay also being nonstarters.

Added to all that is unforeseen inflation in the US, UK and Australia and unfavourable exchange Australian dollar rates making an already extremely expensive AUKUS SSN project a huge financial risk over the 25 years until an Aus SSN is operational.

So, yes a French Barracuda SSN could cut risks in several ways.

On the ASPI article Mead is as careful as his position allows. Marles has more latitude though runs against the US and UK’s well documented delays till 2040s when Marles talks of “need for haste is dictated by deteriorating strategic circumstances”. Nowhere in the public AUKUS SSN program delivery timings is there hope for “haste”.

I see the article’s statement “Marles has undertaken to strengthen the lethality and deterrent effect” as providing distant hope that Marles is hinting that the 25 tonne Conventional high explosive limit for AUKUS SSN weapons can be enriched by other explosive technologies.

But this is probably a faint hope until

A.  In Ukraine Russia uses a Radiological Weapon (eg. using explosives to spread  radioactive substances in the large power Reactor complex over a wide area) or uses a Nuclear Weapon.

or

B.  After China installs ballistic or hypersonic missiles on the Solomons

or

C.  When China invades Taiwan.

Fear of China made SSNs for Australia an unexpected possibility and even greater future fears of Chinese or Russian acts may make Australian weapon “ambiguity” possible.

October 27, 2022

France's SSN offer Should be a Taskforce Plan B.


(Above cartoon courtesy Ron Tandberg in the Sydney Morning Herald April 2016)

---

Looking back. Under the then new Australian Prime Minister (Turnbull) Japan and Germany's loss was France's 2016 SSK gain - but only until 2021. 

The 2021 AUKUS SSN new choice was Morrison's and Johnson's (both gone) and Biden's. Biden is the last, albeit ineffectual, AUKUS triplet. A visibly aging Biden will be an 82yo President on the outside chance he's Inaugurated in 2025. 

The extremely expensive, conventional weapon limited, Australian SSN issue now belongs to new Prime Minister Albanese, whose administration is now reassessing all Australian defence issues.

In 2016 after the winning Aus SSK announcement I mentioned France's ability to possibly later offer SSNs as an advantage over TKMS. In that same article I also raised the issues of possible future China and Trump threats. 

Might 2016 concerns continue to be relevant in 2022-2025?

2025 may bring a possible return of US Trumpist isolationism making the AUKUS  SSN option even harder, more expensive and late compared to France offering cheaper, already in production, Barracuda SSNs, in the more immediate future.

I humbly suggest Australia's Nuclear Powered Submarine Taskforce should give highly developed consideration to France's SSN as a Plan B if AUKUS submarine Plan A continues to prove an overly late, expensive and high risk option.

Also France (eg. to Israeli enjoyment) has proven itself a nurturer of a wider range of weaponry than the UK or US have been willing, not to put too fine a point on it.