Submarine & Other Matters

I publish analysis about subs, other naval matters, nuclear weapons and broad political issues. Unlike most advanced countries Australian submarine changes are very slow. The first Collins LOTE may be limited to optronic masts (?) and only ready in 2030 (?). Triumphant Trump may decide to cancel Biden's "Democrat" AUKUS Virginia offer because the US Navy needs all operational SSNs right through to the 2040s. My colleagues Shawn C and Gessler are excellent writers. Pete

October 29, 2024

China Upset With NK Involvement in Ukraine

So North Korea (NK) soldiers are training in Russia to fight alongside Russian troops against Ukrainian forces. If this is to give NK troops infantry and tank battlefield experience this is bad news indeed for South Korea (SK).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_involvement_in_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#North_Korea_2

Also bad news is NK’s closer relationship with Russia. The last time good Russian-NK relations occurred NK invaded SK. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War#Prelude_to_war_(1950)

NK tank warfare hasn’t been practised since around 1950 and NK infantry since 1953. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War#Course_of_the_war

So lack of practice for up to 74 years needs to be made good as a prerequisite to NK invading SK. Also NK can upgrade its aging tank stocks and perhaps receive new Russian tanks, with Russian lessons learnt on the Ukrainian front.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Korean_People%27s_Army_Ground_Force#Armour

This time NK also has thermonuclear weapons, so can feel more confident that an SK (or allied) ground counter-invasion into NK might not occur.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#2017

Furthermore the Kim dynasty is unbalanced, as usual. Kim III may also coolly calculate that the West (especially the US) is distracted be two current wars: in Ukraine and Israel-Gaza-Lebanon-Iran.

Into this dark mix is the possibility Trump may win the November 5 Election. This makes the situation in NK-SK and the two current wars more volatile.

China is very unhappy that Putin has connected the Ukraine War with NK troop involvement. Here and below is the best commentary I've seen about implications for China including pressure for nuclearization in SK and Japan.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...: Early reports are coming in:

Intercepted audio purports to show a chaotic start to North Koreans joining
Russia's fight:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/intercepted-audio-purports-show-chaotic-170502439.html; 10/30/2024 4:11 AM
Pete2 said...: Thanks Anonymous at 10/30/2024 4:11 AM

For https://www.yahoo.com/news/intercepted-audio-purports-show-chaotic-170502439.html which reveals the major problems, starting with no common language, in integrating NK troops into the Russian alliance system.

Radio comms between NK and Russian units will need to be perfected. So not just interpreters embedded in units.

So language and basic logistical problems are huge. The NK units on the Ukrainian front may be more military trouble for the Russians than the NKs are worth.

Incidents of NK troops friendly firing at Russian units might become a common hazard.

The NK might be more a political "Coalition of the Willing" (COW) asset than a military asset for years. Looking back at NK-Russian history 1945-50 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People%27s_Army#Soviet_Korean_Units it may take up to 4 years to train up NK units sufficiently to safely and efficiently operate in theatre.

Meanwhile I wonder if the Chinese Army will also try to integrate into the Russian machine for Chinese Army battlefield experience on the Ukraine Front?

Regards Pete; 10/30/2024 5:50 PM