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There's quite a bit of naval news this week, with the first one about Australia.
"Australia awards BAE & ASC first SSN-AUKUS contract"
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/03/australia-selects-bae-systems-and-asc-to-build-ssn-aukus/
This is totally expected, as they are the only submarine builders in the UK and Australia, and Pete has commented on this award in his own article.
My own opinion is that Australia, after investing US$3 billion in the US submarine industrial base, is not likely to receive new-build Virginia-class submarines. Although, by the 2030s, 30 year old Virginia Block 1s [a subclass of just 4 boats commissioned 2004-2008] are highly likely (and Australia will also have to pay for their Mid Life Update). [The Block 1s suffer from only having 12 x single Tomahawk sized VLS (see right sidebar). They would need to be reconstructed at huge extra expense to incorporate 2 x large multipurpose Virginia Payload Tubes (VPTs) that could take larger, more potent, hypersonic missiles, to deter China.]
A more viable option could be to speed up the delivery of SSN-AUKUS, from the 2040s to the mid-2030s. This can be done by expanding the production infrastructure at ASC and by starting industrial training early (first 100 welders being sent to Hawaii next year).
According to ASC, only 1% of all the welds on the Collins-class, from 1987 to 2003, were found to be defective. So ASC could start producing hull sections for all the SSN-AUKUS boats (Australian and UK), for example the rear-half, and send them to Barrow to assemble and build the UK boats. This would speed up production efficiencies for both navies.
Hi Pete,
ReplyDeleteThis is quite impressive news imho. AUKUS seems to be taken quite seriously by all sides concerned. Every few months there seems to be news of something or other happening involving Australian staff/crew being trained . This is so unlike every other Aust naval program I've followed, though I guess the Hunter program isn't doing badly either.
Cheers mate,
Andrew
Hi Andrew at 3/25/2024 5:45 PM
ReplyDeleteYes Australian finance is hopefully lubricating progress in the US and UK industrial bases.
Such early money for the UK may well be a sign of Australia hedging against the Virginia “deal” falling through.
Be they US or UK designed SSNs I think Australia is gifting such large sums because the SSNs should mainly be seen as potential long range nuclear strike platforms. They will eventually be armed with nuclear tipped hypersonic missiles as deterrents against China.
If Australia merely wanted submarines as torpedo and conventional Tomahawk carriers we could stick with SSKs rather than paying about 5 times more for SSNs. So, via SSNs, Australia is paying its most powerful allies, entry fees for the weapons platforms necessary to be in the Nuclear Weapons Club, by the 2050s, if not sooner.
Cheers Pete
Hi Pete,
ReplyDeleteThe 26th Virginia-class boat USS Idaho (SSN 799) was just christened.
https://www.navaltoday.com/2024/03/19/us-navy-christens-new-virginia-class-attack-submarine-uss-idaho/
With the Block 1 boats, USS Virginia is now 20 years old, so should be undergoing an MLU soon, though I have not found anything in OSINT about fitting a VPM plug. I know that the Block 1 Virginias were built in five hull sections, Block II onwards had four sections, and this may complicate inserting the VPM.
The whole strategic logic about Collins/Attack/Virgina/AUKUS-SSN is that Australia wants long range boats. This has likely not changed, though I can see an Australian SSN supporting ASAS units with cruise missiles during a raid somewhere, I don’t think Australian hypersonic missiles will count for much numerically amid the flurry of USN missile attacks.
Oh speaking of BMs, South Korea just approved development of the Hyunmoo IV 2 ship launched IRBM, so from 2036 they will have plenty of tools to dig out the DPRNK rats from their warrens https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/03/south-korea-starts-ship-launched-ballistic-missile-development/
Hi Shawn
ReplyDeleteLooks like USS Idaho (SSN-799) will be commissioned in 2025 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Idaho_(SSN-799)
Something I just noticed - by the time Virginias Block 1s Might be handed over to Australia, in the mid-2030s, they will already be THIRTY years old. With only about 8 years left in their unrefuellable reactors. Also such a Virginia would need to wait their (for the USN) "low priority turns" on the already long, late US maintenance queue.
So we'd need to be talking Virginia Block IIIs that already have the large multipurpose Virginia Payload Tubes needed for Australian missile upgrades.
The submarine insertion and extraction of an Australian SAS team would be done in low profile silence ie. no noisy cruise missile firings.
Thanks for https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/03/south-korea-starts-ship-launched-ballistic-missile-development/
Which in part says the ship launched Hyunmoo-IV-2 "is similar to that of South Korea’s...Hyunmoo-IV-4 SLBM) and the range is estimated to be more than 800 km in order to neutralize major facilities in all regions of North Korea from the ship, and it is expected to have extreme precision."
So this dual-warhead capable SK SLBM, about 9.8m tall, permitting to fit, in a VLS, in a standard 10.4m SSN beam, might be a good candidate for an Australian nuclear tipped SLBM in time.
Cheers Pete