Australia buying 3-5 Virginias. Intentionally Unworkable?

Reports from various media outlets support my prediction, here and here that Australia will be buying UK designed nuclear attack submarines (now dubbed SSN-AUKUS) and will build portions of them in Adelaide, Australia.

But what I didn't predict is an Australian intention, real or politically imagined, that Australia will first buy from 3 to 5 Virginia's during the 2030s purportedly as  "submarine capability gap" fillers. I didn't predict Virginias due to all the problems and unlikelyhoods I detail below.

The $368 Billion (US or AU dollars?) over 30 years, quoted by the Govenment is a typical defence understatement. Australia operating two distinct SSN types may add A$100 Billion (especially in training, spare parts, basing and maintainence complications) to what I already calculated as a A$500 Billion Australian SSN program over 35 years (2023-2058). Those figures take into account inflation over those years, submarine operating costs and the cost of nuclear training literally thousands of technicians, engineers, scientists, teaching staff, submarine builders, emergency staff and, of course, a new generation of nuclear submariners.

Three to five Virginia SSNs, bought by Australia from US shipyards in the 2030s then Australian-UK production of Australian-UK-US designed SSN-AUKUS in the 2040s have been announced. This was by President Biden and Prime Ministers Sunak and Albanese in San Diego, US, on March 14, 2023 (Australian time).

But there are too many problems with a "quick solution" to buy Virginias.

A US Political Change of Heart?

A good intention to sell Australia Virginias in 10 or more years is a long time in AUKUS politics, where political continuity is essential, but unlikely. Biden will not be President in the 2030s.

Even before the 2030s there is uncertainty over Biden being re-elected in November 2024. Might a Republican President (at worst the alliance downgrader  Trump?) have different priorities, which might include bowing to already expressed USN pressure not to sell Virginias to Australia? 

Biden has simply made a promise he cannot possibly honour during his sitting presidential term.

The USN being a parent navy that is already reluctant to spare Virginia's for Australian use spells big problems down the line. US Navy Admirals and key US Congressmen have long said the US has too few submarines as essential priorities of the US's own sovereignty. Biden's, in re-election mode, statements on March 14, 2023 that he has conjured up 3 to 5 Virginias in 10 years time cannot re-imagine the reality that the experts of the USN already see. 

The problem of too little US submarine manufacturing capacity even for US Navy needs won't be allayed by the bizarre concept that Australia could fund, or send non-nuclear trained workers, for a new US production line for nuclear submarines. That would be akin to sending proverbial "coals to Newcastle" or car-workers to Japan. Short of a wartime escalation, the US and Australia simply have too few managers and workers to quickly produce an excess 3 to 5 Virginias. Sending nuclear novice Australian submariners to the USN for training might also be more of a hindrance than a help - given the USN always has too few training slots aboard its submarines.  

If Australia buys 3 completed submarines from the US this won't assist Adelaide in developing Australia deep maintenance facilities for a fleet as small as 3 Australian Virginias. The US instead already has a long backlog of nuclear subs that need deep maintenance and/or repairs. Australian Virginias are likely to languish at the back of the queue behind USN Virginias, Los Angeles and Seawolf SSNs and Ohio class SSBNs that need major work as essential components of the US's own sovereignty. 

Analysts have already reported it would take 15 years to train a whole Australian nuclear submarine crew including senior engineers and executive officers/commanders. Also a Virginia needs a vastly larger crew of 135 compared to a likely 100 in SSN-AUKUS (previously known as SSN(R)s) and only 58 in our present Collins subs. Even if we bought Virginia's in 2033 we could not majority crew them with Australians until 2038. This all points to years of reliance on US officers and crewman - something the USN wouldn't be happy about unless the USN remained de facto owners of "Australia's" Virginias.

The claim that it is a new policy that US Virginias annually visit Western Australia is misleading. US Virginia or Los Angeles SSNs or larger US SSGNs have been visiting Western Australia on average annually since 2005. 

Another concern is the irrationality of Australia operating US and UK designed SSNs simultaneously. It may well be that after Australia buys 5 Virginias it would make more sense to buy 3 additional Virginias to make up the complete and final fleet of 8. 

The alternative of building 3 UK SSN-AUKUS in Adelaide, to make up the 8, just doesn't make financial, training or operational sense. 

Early Virginias are an Intentionally Unworkable Non-Solution

In September 2021 the then Morrison Goverment promised all 8 nuclear subs would be built in Adelaide. South Australia and the Australia wide shipbuilding industry (consisiting of hundreds of Australian companies) accepted that promise with enthusiasm. But Albanese has reneged on that "will be built in Australia" promise as the Virginias will be US built.

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Flashback: Australian workers will miss out while Australia funds US workers to build the subs in the US. The Guardian reported September 25, 2022:

"The South Australian premier, Peter Malinauskas, has criticised a proposal for Australia to buy nuclear submarines directly from the US, saying it would “not be acceptable” for his state to miss out on promised submarine manufacturing jobs."

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Albanese has come up with a solution that USN and the Australian submarine building industry won't accept. "Build our submarines in Australia", from the Collins onwards, in the late 1970s, has been the essential requirement for our Australia-wide shipbuilding interests. 

Australian industry and South Australian State Government resistance to Australia buying already built Virginias from US shipyards will be such that Albanese can then honestly claim "Oh well! Then we'll need to wait for the UK designed SSN-AUKUS. They will be built in the 2040s." 

Therefore Australia's only real option is to wait until the UK, following its Dreadnought-class SSBN build (which will dominate UK resources until the late 2030s) is ready to build SSN-AUKUS in the UK and in Australia. For that we are talking much mid-2030s design work, then one or two SSN-AUKUS laid down in the the UK in about 2039 and maybe the first Australian one laid down in Adelaide in 2042. Commissioning of that first Australian SSN-AUKUS may be 2047. 

These are time spans so distant that the Albanese government cannot be held to account during the current Parliament and even the next. The Albanese government will be long gone before about 2035 when Australia will need to start tooling up for SSN-AUKUS production.