Much on India's Outlook: QUAD Meeting Part 1

Gessler has been very productive describing the QUADrilateral Security Dialogue discussions, with particular focus on India's outlook. 

Below "Quad Foreign Ministers Meet Prior to Close Aussie Election" in posts of February 12, 2022 Gessler wrote:

“Hi Pete, posting here after quite a while, hope you're doing well! [After my health vicissitudes last year, I'm doing very well. Thanks Gessler ;]

I don't have much to add regarding the potential effect of the February 11, 2022 QUAD  meeting on Australia's political environment, other than the plausible idea that a meeting of Presidents/Prime Ministers would have had a much greater effect than one of Foreign Ministers but as it happens the next Heads of State/Heads of Government-level QUAD meeting may only happen after the Australian federal elections are over [In Tokyo - sometime in May 2022 or, if Russia and/or China become more aggressive, later]. 

Current Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison (aka "Holy ScoMo, Defender of the Faith" to his "friends", who tend to be enemies) stands stiffly. As Australia's numero uno Family Man, he takes this Photo Op with his Quads.
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Coming back to the February 2022 meeting itself, it appears the general scope of the agenda (to include the now oft-repeated "Free & Open Indo-Pacific", maritime security, vaccine partnership, cyberspace & emerging technologies regulation, space, etc.) has largely remained on the same track as it was left by the meeting of national Leaders in Washington DC in 2021... 

...but of note is the fact that while the American, Japanese & Australian representatives have each independently voiced their concerns about the Russia-Ukraine situation, the notable exception was India which refrained from touching the subject - being the only QUAD member country that abstained from voting against Russia at the UN and the only one that enjoys generally good strategic & economic relations with the Russian state. It reflects the fact that while the individual sound-bytes provided by the three other member-states all mention Ukraine, the official Joint Statement (which understandably has to be signed off by all parties) makes no mention of Ukraine at all:

See US State Department reproducing the Quad Foreign Minister’s “Joint Statement on Quad Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific” February 11, 2022.

To put it in the words of the Indian External Affairs Minister (responding to a question about his position on the Ukraine situation): 

“This meeting is focused on the Indo-Pacific, so I think you should figure out the geography there.” 

See India’s The Wire, on February 11, 2022 “In First Physical Meeting in Two Years, Quad Foreign Ministers Discuss Ukraine, Myanmar” “India’s refusal to get drawn into any public recrimination of Russia was starkly demonstrated when External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, chose not to respond on Russian actions in Ukraine. See https://thewire.in/diplomacy/in-first-physical-meeting-in-two-years-quad-foreign-ministers-discuss-ukraine-myanmar 

Its quite evident that India will try its best to keep the QUAD's focus on the Indo-Pacific, for both its own interests and, perhaps in India's view, that of the other QUAD members**. In many ways that echoes the thought process & statements made by the German Navy Chief in New Delhi recently which can be concisely summarized as "Forget Russia, focus on China" (statements which incidentally got him fired because apparently that sort of stuff wasn't meant to be said out loud...even though anyone looking at German policy with regard to the Ukraine situation would have figured that one out quite easily). 

** Expanding on that bit - this can be seen in two ways. On the one hand, it can be seen as a lack of unity or cohesion due to differing strategic viewpoints. On the other it can be seen as a much-needed anchor that keeps the QUAD's strategic focus on China, which arguably is a much bigger threat not only to the immediate safety & security of the QUAD member-states but also to the entire rules-based global order shaped by the United States since the collapse of the USSR. Simply put, the greatest threat to US/Western/Democratically-governed world order in more ways than one (military, economic, social). 

Not to mention - sound foreign policy, especially as practiced at one point (and hopefully will be again) by Cold War US diplomats. This is with regard to 'divide-and-rule'. QUAD governments should do anything to avoid nurturing a Coalition of enemy states [ie. Russia AND China]. The Coalition should only be made by the 'good [democracy] guys', the bad guys should be made to fight alone. 

Simply put - Pick your main enemy, work with everyone, even your other enemies, to take him [currently Xi's China] down. It was this thought-process that allowed likes of [now 98 year old] Henry Kissinger to exploit the Sino-Soviet schism of the 1960s & 70s. At that point the diplomatic efforts were enabled by Pakistan which in many ways set up the thaw in US-China relations, the thaw that succeeded in depriving the Soviets of an important ally right up till Tiananmen Square 1989. 

If the time comes to work with Russia in certain areas in order to address the bigger threat - the enabling environment may well have to be facilitated by a country that maintains cordial relations with both sides. If one were to view the QUAD as sort of a multi-faceted grouping or bulwark that seeks to address/contain/resolve the Chinese threat in all the domains where it manifests itself, then in that grouping, India is gonna have to be that country. 

Because let's face it, Vladimir Putin may rule Russia for a long time, but it won't be forever. And any Russian leader in the coming decades is going to have to be increasingly apprehensive of China's potential designs & intent on the vast, sparsely-populated & resource-rich Siberian hinterlands & the Russian Far-East. And if this new Cold War 2.0 is gonna be anything like the last one, the Chinese threat is gonna be around for at least as long as the Soviet one did, if not more. Cheers!”