In response to Anonymous fine comments of February 12, 2022 particularly:
"Is coalition with ALP and Greens possible? Radical ecologists do not seem to accept nuclear submarine. US and Europe concentrate Ukraine issues, but military operations by China in the East China Sea after the Olympic games should be highly cautious."
---------
Yes, there is a coalition of some interests and some voting patterns between the Australian ALP and Greens.
At the national level of Government this is evident in:
- people's votes for the Greens at elections being passed on to the much larger ALP, especially important in the by May 21, 2022 Federal Election
- Adam Bandt, leader of the Australian Greens and federal Member for Melbourne (in the Lower House of) Parliament, sometimes, but not always, voting with the ALP in the Lower House.
and
- the Greens are powerful in the Upper House (Senate) with 9 out of the 76 Senate seats available. This is particulary when the Greens vote with the ALP Senators.
If the ALP win the 2022 (Lower House) Federal Election AND the ALP and/or Greens win an extra Senate seat the details and buying-submarines-budget environment of the AUKUS nuclear submarine process may change.
It is true the Greens do no accespt the AUKUS submarine deal and if the ALP win the 2022 Election SOME Leftwing members/Senators of the ALP (some may be persuaded by China) to block AUKUS progress.
Thanks for the details on the attitudes to China of some Japanese politicians.
I do not know what the situation will be after the May 2022 Australian election. Based on last night’s NSW State election results, four outcomes now seem possible:
ReplyDelete1. LNP coalition survives in majority government (now looking unlikely)
2. Labor minority government with “Teal independents” (now looking likely)
3. Labor minority government with “Teal independents” and Greens (also quite likely)
4. Labor majority government (looking less likely given strong vote to independents in NSW)
I have discounted an LNP - Greens minority govenment (clashing ideology) and LNP - Teal independents (climate change and ICAC policies irreconcilable).
Of these scenarios, AUKUS and the SSN program seem likely to proceed under scenarios 1, 2 and 4. Under scenario 3 (Labor - Greens minority government) AUKUS SSNs could continue if they were supported by any two of Labor, Liberals and “Teal independents”. We have seen such deals before, and I expect we will see plenty more again, especially after the next election if multiple independents hold the balance of power. Further, I still cannot see the Liberals in opposition voting against SSN funding, since they would be killing their own legacy project. In that case, a Labor-Liberal marriage of coalition could easily pass SSN funding bills in the Senate.
Thanks Anonymous
ReplyDeleteI'd be grateful if you could provide the uninitiated more detals on
"Teal independents (climate change and ICAC policies irreconcilable)."
including the Teals election performance.
Cheers Pete
Pete
ReplyDeleteThe “Teal Independents” is the name given to the group of centrists independents being organised by Simon Holmes a’Court. They use a “teal-blue” colour in their marketing. They are well financed and standing candidates in at least a half dozen otherwise safe Liberal seats in inner city electorates in Sydney and Melbourne. They tend to be “small-L liberals” who favour stronger action on climate change and corruption, and are opposing sitting government MPs. Zali Steggal would be an example in the current parliament. They are considered a serious threat to the Liberals in several seats. Some associated independents performed well at the NSW State bi-elections on Saturday, notably in inner-Sydney Willoughby. I have not seen them express any views on AUKUS SSNs either way. The website of their umbrella funding group is linked below.
https://www.climate200.com.au/candidates
Teal 1
ReplyDeleteHere's the first part of an interesting article, called "The Teal Party" [a new Australian political phenomenon for me.] It appears more paletable than the Greens or ALP for the monied Conservatives in inner city electorates.]
It is written by Daniel Wild, published on 29 December 2021
at https://ipa.org.au/ipa-today/the-teal-party
"ORIGINALLY APPEARED IN THE DAILY TELEGRAPH
Earlier this month, Liberal MP for Wentworth David Sharma said “working with my colleagues, I’ve been able to achieve some important goals, including a commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050.”
This, and a vague reference to “new policy measures to accelerate our transition to a lower carbon pathway” were the only policy achievements Sharma could name.
There is no question that Sharma is a talented and gifted politician who is genuine in his stated desire to make Australia a better country.
[See "‘teal’ independents" below]
But it is interesting to note that net zero by 2050 was Labor policy in the lead up to the 2019 election. The fact that it is now the Coalition’s policy is due to political pressure exerted by the left-leaning ‘teal’ independents that Sharma claims have little influence.
There is no doubt that the ‘Voices for’ groups and the Climate 200 party have had a significant influence over debate in our country, especially on the issue of climate policy.
They will probably push the primary vote in inner-city Liberal-held seats such as Wentworth, Kooyong, and Goldstein further down. In the 2019 election, for example, both Sharma in Wentworth and Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong already had a first preference vote below 50 per cent.
These seats will never go Green or Labor because the wealthy constituents are afraid of what would happen to their back-pocket. But a sensible sounding, fiscally conservative and climate conscious ‘independent’ is a very attractive proposition for some.
The effect of this will be to force the inner-city Liberals further to the left in an attempt to feed the crocodile which will inevitably eat them anyway.
By bankrolling typically already well-off left-leaning independents in affluent inner-city Liberal-held seats, the climate lobby groups have essentially forced the Coalition to adopt a policy that was a Greens fantasy only a decade ago.
From “axe the tax” to a “plan for net zero” in just eight years.
Sharma’s central pitch to voters in his electorate is this that he can achieve more through working within the Coalition than a left-leaning independent can achieve on their own or in concert with a small number of other like-minded independents.
What Sharma fails to recognise is that his admission that his only success is in implementing net zero shows the opposite point to the one he intended to make: that the way to achieve change in Australia today is to be a small vocal minority with well-funded backers, not through the major parties.
If inner-city Liberals weren’t feeling the electoral heat from the climate independents Morrison would be spending more time in Gladstone and less in Glasgow.
The same is true on the other side.
A recent survey by the Redbridge Group found the United Australia Party was polling at around 20% in the western Sydney seats of Banks, Lindsay, and Macquarie. A similar survey in Victoria found that almost 40% of those polled said they were undecided or would vote for a minor party at the state election in November next year.
Teal 2
ReplyDeleteHere's the second part of an interesting article, called "The Teal Party" [a new Australian political phenomenon for me.] It appears more paletable than the Greens or ALP for the monied Conservatives in inner city electorates.]
It is written by Daniel Wild, published on 29 December 2021
at https://ipa.org.au/ipa-today/the-teal-party
Yes having Clive Palmer bankroll in the tens of millions is necessary for the rise of the UAP. But it isn’t sufficient. Money without message is ineffective. Hence Palmer’s failure to pick up any seats in the 2019 election.
But the UAP lead candidate and former Liberal Craig Kelly has a message on lockdowns and mandates that appeals to anywhere from a quarter to a third of voters who don’t believe the major parties speak for them or their values.
Whether Kelly can maintain the rage until polling day remains to be seen. As does his and Palmer’s capacity to receive enough first-preference votes to capture any lower house seats.
What we do know is that it’s only because of the growing vote for UAP and One Nation in Queensland that Scott Morrison finally took a stronger stand against vaccine mandates and lockdowns. In other words, the minor parties to the right of the Coalition have already had an impact on public debate (although as yet no discernible impact on public policy outcomes).
What we also know is that the views expressed by Palmer, Kelly, and Pauline Hanson could not be freely expressed from within the Coalition. Kelly himself was kicked out of the Liberal party for advocating treatments for Covid considered too unconventional. While North Queensland Coalition MP George Christensen was condemned by the entire federal parliament, including his own party, for saying lockdowns don’t work.
And those brave and courageous Coalition Senators that have spoken out, like Senator Alex Antic of South Australia and Senators Matt Canavan and Gerard Renick of Queensland, have done so knowing that a promotion to the front bench won’t be coming anytime soon.
Daniel Wild is the Director of Research at the Institute of Public Affairs"
Hi Anonymous [at Feb 13, 2022, 11:07:00 PM]
ReplyDeleteThanks very much for your description below on the Teal Independents. Yes, depending where they direct their preferences they could do some damage to the hopes of the Liberals or ALP. People, like me, are tired of the staid and stogy Libs and ALP. If a "Teal" stood in my "provincial" electorate I might vote for him/her. Pete.
Thanks for the following:
"The “Teal Independents” is the name given to the group of centrists independents being organised by Simon Holmes a’Court. They use a “teal-blue” colour in their marketing. They are well financed and standing candidates in at least a half dozen otherwise safe Liberal seats in inner city electorates in Sydney and Melbourne. They tend to be “small-L liberals” who favour stronger action on climate change and corruption, and are opposing sitting government MPs. Zali Steggal would be an example in the current parliament. They are considered a serious threat to the Liberals in several seats. Some associated independents performed well at the NSW State bi-elections on Saturday, notably in inner-Sydney Willoughby. I have not seen them express any views on AUKUS SSNs either way. The website of their umbrella funding group is linked below.
https://www.climate200.com.au/candidates
Feb 13, 2022, 11:07:00 PM"
Pete
ReplyDeleteYes I find many of the Teal candidates impressive myself. One of them (Sharkie) is aligned with former submariner Rex Patrick who has made well informed criticisms of the Attack Class project. I am hopeful their policy on submarines will be similar to his.
Hi Anonymous [Feb 14, 2022, 6:12:00 AM]
ReplyDeleteSharkie's record is commendable. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rebekha_Sharkie
Though I have one hesitation. Her full name is Rebekha Carina Che Sharkie.
Now, as we inner-llectuals know, "Che" was quite revolutionary. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Che_Guevara
It is true that THE world's most famous poster (of Che) adorns my wall, along with a young Queen Elizabeth II
not to mention Queenzy's alter ego, Xena "Warrior Princess".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xena:_Warrior_Princess
My question is, "Is Che a latter day Teal?"
Pete