On April 8, 2019 I wrote that Japan is frustrated that its twinjet F-15Js (ideal for intercepts) are wearing out doing so many peaceful interceptions. The 147 single engined F-35s that Japan has bought are basically underpowered for the peaceful intercept job - being relativey too slow horizontally and in climb rates. The F-35 is also not power-control surface configured to do the agile vectoring required of an air superiority fighter.
The Lockheed Martin comeback that the F-35s can perform interceptions with missiles from beyond visual range is not useful for peacetime interception when the interceptee has to visually see and then be escorted out by the interceptor. Hence a powerful (twinjet) aircraft is needed - preferably with more modern stealth levels than 4th generation F-15s.
Given the US's woeful decision (in 2006) not to export its twinjet 5th generation F-22 it is likely the US will decide not to export its proposed 6th generation F-X air superiority fighter. In any case the 20 year lead times to develop the F-35 and F-22 suggest the F-X will only be available to its likely only permitted customer, the US, in the early 2040s.
Russia has successfuly sold Kilo submarines to export customers for decades. More recently China is demonstrating that it can sell Yuan submarines (to Pakistan and Thailand) - submarines part reverse engineered from Russian Kilos.
So why can't Russia and China sell advanced air superiority fighters, with stealth features to a greater variety of countries? Russia was over-ambitious in going into a joint venture with India to develop Russia's fifth generation fighter PAK FA aka Su-57 (also see). India brought money to the project but India had no substantial stealth technological background to contribute.
In contrast a Russian-Chinese joint stealth project dynamic would be different and may be already occurring with Russia's export of 4.5 generation Su-35s to China (see Diplomat) (also Su-35s are being sold India and Egypt). Advanced Su-35 vectoring and supercruise Saturn AL-41F1S engines are advanced interceptor attractions.
Such Su-35 partial stealth developments could produce results in a Russia-China's stealth program by avoiding duplications of effort.
A Russian Chinese twin-jet stealth air-superiortity fighter might be the result by the late 2020s. Sales of export versions to Japan, India, France and other major customers may result.
With the prospect of 4 more years of isolationist Trumpism (2020-early 2025) and a continuing US twinjet stealth embargo, countries will need to be more self-reliant of the US "alliance". Major countries may increasingly emulate India's policy of non-aligned arms purchasing from many powers.
Also those allies who have already bought inferior F-35 interceptors at sky high US stealth monopoly prices will not want to suffer the same poor buying position again...
Pete
The Lockheed Martin comeback that the F-35s can perform interceptions with missiles from beyond visual range is not useful for peacetime interception when the interceptee has to visually see and then be escorted out by the interceptor. Hence a powerful (twinjet) aircraft is needed - preferably with more modern stealth levels than 4th generation F-15s.
Given the US's woeful decision (in 2006) not to export its twinjet 5th generation F-22 it is likely the US will decide not to export its proposed 6th generation F-X air superiority fighter. In any case the 20 year lead times to develop the F-35 and F-22 suggest the F-X will only be available to its likely only permitted customer, the US, in the early 2040s.
Russia has successfuly sold Kilo submarines to export customers for decades. More recently China is demonstrating that it can sell Yuan submarines (to Pakistan and Thailand) - submarines part reverse engineered from Russian Kilos.
So why can't Russia and China sell advanced air superiority fighters, with stealth features to a greater variety of countries? Russia was over-ambitious in going into a joint venture with India to develop Russia's fifth generation fighter PAK FA aka Su-57 (also see). India brought money to the project but India had no substantial stealth technological background to contribute.
In contrast a Russian-Chinese joint stealth project dynamic would be different and may be already occurring with Russia's export of 4.5 generation Su-35s to China (see Diplomat) (also Su-35s are being sold India and Egypt). Advanced Su-35 vectoring and supercruise Saturn AL-41F1S engines are advanced interceptor attractions.
Such Su-35 partial stealth developments could produce results in a Russia-China's stealth program by avoiding duplications of effort.
A Russian Chinese twin-jet stealth air-superiortity fighter might be the result by the late 2020s. Sales of export versions to Japan, India, France and other major customers may result.
With the prospect of 4 more years of isolationist Trumpism (2020-early 2025) and a continuing US twinjet stealth embargo, countries will need to be more self-reliant of the US "alliance". Major countries may increasingly emulate India's policy of non-aligned arms purchasing from many powers.
Also those allies who have already bought inferior F-35 interceptors at sky high US stealth monopoly prices will not want to suffer the same poor buying position again...
Pete
I would like to correct you in your sixth paragraph -(Indonesia and Egypt). India does not have SU-35 yet.
ReplyDeleteSecondly, in your 8th para you talk about ( if i am not wrong) possible Joint Chinese-Russian jet sales to Japan,India,France and other countries as well.
You might want to know that all 3 countries mentioned up there have their own indigenous 5th gen stealth jet program and France even skipping that and going with Germany for 6th gen jet so it is unlikely that they even in their dreams would go for sino-russo jet. all have bad relations with china and Russia as well except India.
No country will buy high tech gear from a country they may end up going to war with. For a start, some countries sell ‘export’ models that are a cut below the ‘non export’ version, so you would be at an automatic disadvantage. The enemy will know every strength & weekness of the gear, even better than the buyer. There is also the possibility of backdoors or secret ways of shutting down or built in weaknesses that will only come to light at the worst possible time.
ReplyDeleteIf the likes of Japan (or Australia) want a F22 equivalent or better, than the best option is to join a consortium & help fund & develop one that way. US has 300 million people to fund its plans. Joining a consortium like the UK effort which may well potentially include Italy & Sweden, will give you the money & expertise required & enough market to give economies of scale, without taking on all the risk of going alone. However a F35 setup is not a good idea. A small number of countries & a small number of high end companies (a bit like the Eurofighter consortium). Companies like BAE, RR, Leonardo, SAAB, Mitsubishi etc
Regards
A look at the updated Charles de Gaulle CVN
ReplyDeleteKQN
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIzVgY-r70c&t=0s
Thanks Anonymous's [way back in 2019]
ReplyDeleteYes of course Western countries would not buy a China-Russian developed stealth jet.
I just get rhetorical about the US forcing the sale of a second rate single engined stealth jet onto its allies.
At least Canada has resisted US F-35 sales efforts - so far.
At least Australia is part involved in the Loyal Wingman stealty UCAV.
Cheers
Pete
Hi KQN [your Apr 21, 2019, 11:32:00 AM]
ReplyDeleteThanks for the video on Charles de Gaulle CVN https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIzVgY-r70c&t=0s including the twin-jet Rafale [4.5 gen] fighters 6.05 in.
France's future 5th Gen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Combat_Air_System looks interesting. A long shot that may supplant the US's F-22 ban.
Regards
Pete