"Submarine Rotational Force" A$33 Billion AUKUS Non Event: REVISED

The decline in US SSN numbers until 2043 will prevent US second-hand SSNs being sold to Australia in the 2030s and severely limit Submarine Rotational Force numbers at HMAS Stirling in the 2030s. Australia is embarking on confusing A$multi-billion plans in the southern Perth area mainly for rare AUKUS submarines from the US and UK.

Plans include Australia spending around "$25 billion over a decade" to upgrade the Henderson shipbuilding and maintenance precinct in southern Perth, Western Australia. This, in part. aims to service SSNs. See https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-13/albanese-announces-aukus-12-billion-dollar-defence-spend-perth/105770188

Australia is also spending a minimum of A$8 Billion to expand its submarine base (aka HMAS Stirling or Fleet Base West) south of Perth - money which is also going into housing for US and UK personnel and their families. The base expansion is for handling "up to" 4 US attack submarines (SSNs) and a UK Astute SSN. This is the vaunted "Submarine Rotational Force" project, under AUKUS. See https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-12/inside-the-aukus-plan-to-station-american-subs-near-perth/105763818

Note - there have been loose, slow motion, rotations (or visits) of US SSNs through HMAS Stirling since 2005, if not before.

But if we build more facilities will more subs come? 

US submarine numbers will decline until at least 2043. This is tied to completion of the final US Columbia class SSBN. The Columbias are dominating US submarine production until 2042. The mathematics are each of these higher priority, much larger, Columbias require the US production effort of 2.5 standard Virginias. See Industrial-Base Challenges of Building Both Columbia- and Virginia-Class Boats at https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R41129 and endnote 37 at https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R41129 .

The US has made major efforts to lift submarine production and maintenance for more than a decade. But the inability to attract enough skilled labour, as well as supply chain inefficiencies, has stymied these efforts.

All this means that unless the US partly transfers SSNs from US territory, like Guam, there will be no US submarines available for higher tempo rotation through  HMAS Stirling, until 2043.

Then there is the UK promise, under AUKUS, that Astute class SSNs can spend more time being rotated through HMAS Stirling. This is even less likely. The UK usually has available only two, or more often, one operational Astute(s). Due to reactor and other quality control problems the Astutes have a low rate of availability.

The main mission of these one or two operational Astutes is to protect UK SSBN  patrol activity in the Atlantic. The UK has little margin of safety to increase the rare Astute rotations (really just short visits) through HMAS Stirling.

So on top of the unlikelihood of buying US and UK SSNs this side of 2045, a significant uptick in rotations through Australia is yet another hugely expensive AUKUS gamble.