May 15, 2024

How Submarine Deployment Impacts Sleep Quality

Might sleep impacts in diesel-electric submarines be different from those impacting nuclear submariners? Might a sleep deprived SSBN Trident D5 nuclear weapons officer (above) pull the big red buttoned trigger in error? Will nuclear defenders everywhere exude the inner glow of the long gone B52 bombadier spelling the end of personkind? These, and other questions are untouchable in the following overt tip of a largely classified iceberg, as we don't know it. 

Will Harris, a third-year medical student at Harvard Medical School, has penned an article of May 14, 2024 for Sleep Review magazine. Before medical school, Will Harris served as a nuclear submarine officer in the United States Navy for eight years. The article is at https://sleepreviewmag.com/sleep-health/demographics/career/submarine-deployment-sleep-quality/ :

"How Submarine Deployment Impacts Sleep Quality
of May 14, 2024

A submarine officer-turned-medical-student strives to understand how submarine deployment can affect cognition and sleep quality.

By Will Harris

As a medical student interested in providing better advice on sleep habits to my patients, I recently started reading the book Why We Sleep by Matthew Walker. In its first chapter, the book describes the Mammoth Cave sleep experiment, in which two researchers lived underground for 32 days with a constant ambient temperature and no exposure to natural light. 

Living in a cave for more than a month might seem like a radical idea, but to me, it feels familiar. Thirty-two days in a confined space with constant ambient temperature and no exposure to natural light seems like a fairly short period, actually. I’ve lived in such an environment for well over 100 consecutive days. And thousands of people are living like this right now onboard nuclear-powered submarines.

Life on a Submarine

Before starting physician training at Harvard Medical School, I was a submarine officer in the United States Navy. I spent three years on board a nuclear-powered fast-attack submarine based in Bangor, Washington. During this time, I spent about one year underwater. 

Life on board a submarine can be challenging for many reasons.

  • You might see the sun through the periscope occasionally if you’re lucky. There is no other exposure to natural light. 
  • Submarine crews do not always follow a 24-hour day. An 18-hour day is common, in which sailors are typically awake and working for about 12 hours and asleep for about six hours.
  • The diet consists of canned fruits and vegetables (fresh produce runs out after about a week), powdered milk, frozen meat and fish, and baked goods. 
  • In terms of exercise, a crew of about 150 sailors can share one exercise bike, some free weights, and one or two treadmills (depending on the submarine’s size).

Since all American submarines are equipped with nuclear reactors, they have the fuel to stay at sea for decades. They also can create oxygen and water. So time at sea is limited only by the amount of food carried on board.

Since leaving the submarine force and starting medical school in 2021, I’ve thought a lot about the physiological impacts of a submarine deployment. Here is what I’ve learned about how an 18-hour day on a submarine deployment can affect cognition and sleep quality. 

Three Studies on Submarines and Sleep

Researchers have tested the effects of circadian rhythm and sleep-wake patterns on cognition and sleep quality using a protocol called forced desynchronization, under which participants follow a consistent sleep-wake cycle that is different from 24 hours.

1999 study used submariners following an 18-hour-day schedule as test subjects for studying circadian rhythm. The submariners followed a typical work-sleep schedule of 12 hours working and six hours sleeping during a three-month patrol. Saliva samples were taken periodically to measure melatonin levels. This study found that the circadian period of test subjects remained around 24 hours.

We can feel confident that submariners’ circadian rhythm continues to follow roughly a 24-hour schedule, even if they do not. But how does the 18-hour day affect cognition and sleep quality? 

Here, it’s helpful to look at a study in which researchers examined neurobehavioral function and cognition in humans living in a 20-hour day. Test subjects were scheduled for 15 to 24 cycles of a 20-hour rest/activity cycle. Data was collected on circadian parameters such as melatonin and core body temperature, cognitive tests including short-term memory and reaction time, and sleep was assessed using an electroencephalogram. They found that sleep performance and cognition suffered when the circadian rhythm was out of phase with the sleep-wake cycle.

One final study to consider: In 2015, researchers looked at sleep quality for submariners on a 24-hour schedule. Crewmembers underwent polysomnography (PSG) at the beginning of a submarine deployment and on day 51. They also completed surveys on subjective sleep quality. This study found that sleep quality did not suffer based on PSG evaluation or survey data.

Desynchronization Impacts Sleep Quality

In summary, life onboard a submarine presents many challenges, including an 18-hour sleep-wake cycle, lack of natural light, lack of fresh fruits and vegetables, access to exercise equipment, and potential exposures.

Several studies show that sleep-wake cycles and circadian rhythms become desynchronized during an 18-hour day, and such desynchronization can negatively impact sleep quality and cognition. There is evidence that submariners on a 24-hour day do not have their sleep negatively impacted, which suggests that poor sleep is due to an 18-hour day rather than other exposures onboard a submarine, such as the lack of natural light."

May 10, 2024

How a Virginia Block V SSN Works

 

Here and above is an animated explanation of how a Virginia Block V works.
(Video courtesy AiTelly uploaded July 2023)
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May 6, 2024

Collins LOTE Part 2: Replacements & Upgrades?

See official "Details" about the LOTE.

Following Collins LOTE Part 1: Budgeted. Saab, LM & MTU of April 22, 2024 what replacements and upgrades are needed for the LOTE?

If the 6 Collins were Life of Type Extended ("LOTEed") from 2026 at 2 year intervals the first 2 would probably retire in the 2030s with the remaining 4 soldiering on through to the mid 2040s. 

Main items I think worth replacing or upgrading are: 

- replacing the Collins’ 3 x Garden Island-Hedemora DIESELS. These are probably no longer in production. They are relatively compact permitting all 3 to sit parallel - saving space. However they are probably unreliable (in the saltier waters of the Indo-Pacific) - so probably need a high level of expensive deep maintenance. The 3 might be replaceable by 2 more powerful Kawasaki 12 25/25 SB-type or 2  MTU 4000s submarine diesels (that for more than decade have become highly mature for Indo-Pacific conditions). So, as replacements, 2 x MTU 4000 submarine diesels for each Collins might be reasonable. 

-  maybe new Generators to replace the 3 × Jeumont-Schneider generators with 2

-  strengthening the pressure hulls, as the need for extensive hull cutting to replace/overhaul the Hedemora Diesels has weakened the pressure hulls, reducing safe diving depth.  

-  many combat system items: ie. photonic aka optronic masts replacing existing periscopes, latest technology work stations, new servers, new hardware and software to torpedo tube launch Australia's new Tomahawk anti-ship and land attack missiles. 

-  many worn mechanical moving parts and seals need replacing 

-  electricals that have water damage need replacing, as they can corrode, then fuse, then catch fire. 

-   Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) perhaps cannot be retrofitted into the Collins. The Collins' balance/buoyancy, electrical and electronic fittings and components have been built specifically around Lead-acid Batteries (LABs).

Timings

I'm not convinced the Virginias will be delivered to Australia in the 2030s as the US will lack enough Virginias even for the USN. See pages 19 to 20 of this CRS ReportUS Virginia production might reach "shareable levels" (phrase coined here first) after the US' new Columbia-class SSBNs "are expected to be completed" in 2042

Even LOTEed Collins will only last till the mid 2040s when their pressure hulls become too metal fatigued due to contraction-expansion cycles. 

So Australia may increasing need to rely on AUKUS Pillar 2 generated Ghost Shark XLUUVs from the early 2030s to do everything except fire torpedoes and missiles.

Virginias and/or SSN-AUKUS's might be available to the RAN from the mid-late 2040s. 

May 1, 2024

Sweden wants Larger Warships and More Submarines

As I highlighted in March 2024, Sweden's March 7, 2024 entry into NATO has accelerated Sweden's overall military procurement. With the publication of a document (298 pages in Swedish) by the Swedish Parliamentary Defense Committee, Sweden is now looking at long-term programs for the 2030s.

According to Naval News, this report includes a new class of frigates for participation in NATO Standing Naval Forces, and a new submarine class to replace the Gotland boats in the late 2030s.

A30 submarine project

image: SAAB. The Blekinge-class will stop at two, with a follow-on class
 planned
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To recap - Sweden's A26 Blekinge-class SSKs, which were ordered in 2015, will finally be delivered in 2027 and 2028, and replace the two 38-year-old A17 Vastergotland boats, the HSwMS Sondermanland and the mothballed HSwMS Ostergotland.

The Royal Swedish Navy's (RSwN) three A19 Gotland class submarines are now 28-years old, and should decommission in the late 2030s. The Swedish parliament is therefore considering building four A30 submarines after the Blekinges are completed, for delivery after 2038. The fourth sub will expand the Royal Swedish Navy's (RSwN's) active submarine force to 6 boats. 

The A30 could be a smaller (less capable?) submarine than the A26, but could also carry more weapons.

New Frigates?

image: Finnish Navy. Pohjanmma-class
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As I also highlighted in my March 2024 article, Sweden decided to construct four new corvettes in 2020. These are the Luleå-class corvettes (named after small coastal towns) which are expected to be delivered from 2030. 

These warships will be larger than the 640-tonnes displacement Visbys. They were initially planned as enlarged Visbys. But a clean sheet design was chosen and these ships could emerge as a cousin of Singapore's 1,200-tonne displacement Independence-class Littoral Mission Vessel (LMV).  SAAB contributed to the basic design of the LMV, and also provided composite superstructures

The Visbys will now undergo an mid life update (MLU) to remain in service to 2040.

The Swedish Parliamentary Defense Committee now advocates a follow-on procurement of surface combatants, with deliveries starting in the latter half of the 2030s. Naval News has suggested that a variant of the Finnish Pohjanmaa-class multirole large corvettes (117m long ships with a displacement of 4,300 tonnes) is a prime candidate for this new class of warships. As the Pohjanmaa class recently entered production, with the last ship scheduled for completion in mid-2028,  Sweden could to take advantage of the 'hot' construction yard with a follow-on order.

image: Finnish Navy. Pohjanmaa-class production schedule
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Note that Sweden does not have large naval shipyards, and SAAB had to build the hull of the 4,000 tonne displacement SIGINT ship HSwMS Artemis in Poland.

Update - 2/05/2024

Naval News has posted a YouTube video interview with the Chief of the Royal Swedish Navy on the sidelines of the Sea Air Space 2024 convention and she confirms that Sweden has already integrated into NATO and is prepared to join the NATO standing MCM and Maritime groups.


Naval News interview with the Chief of the Royal Swedish Navy
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April 29, 2024

The Royal Navy's Gun Revolution


A training exercise for a 30mm DS-30B naval cannon. In this case its on a UK Royal Fleet Auxiliary vessel 12 years ago. Same weapon used on HMS Diamond - details below.
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The Royal Navy (RN) of the United Kingdom has always been a gun-armed Navy, since it was founded as the 'Tudor Navy' by Henry VIII in 1485. While the 'missile age' of naval warfare has diminished the importance of gun weapons as offensive weaponry, recent events in the Black Sea and the Red Sea have reinforced the importance of guns for warship self-defense.

The UK Defence Journal recently published a question formally asked in the UK parliament about the UK's air defence assets. This has confirmed an issue that was brought up by Navylookout.com in an after-action report of the Type 45 Daring-class air defence destroyer HMS Diamond's engagement of Houthi UAVs, ASCMs and ASBMs in January 2024 - that the 'main-gun' of RN destroyers and frigates, the British 4.5-inch (114mm) Mark 8 naval gun, does not have anti-aircraft capabilities, as Naval Lookout observed

"4.5-inch Mk 8 gun is now really only useful in the Naval Gunfire Support role in relatively benign environments. The software support for its original limited anti-air capability was withdrawn some time ago as a cost-saving measure."

I've been curious about the resurgence of naval guns as a counter UAV/USV weapon, especially as there are now proximity and guided projectiles for 30mm, 40mm, 57mm, 76mm and 5-inch (127mm) naval guns. 

Smaller 30mm calibre gun ammunition are much more economical than expensive SAMs for knocking out small cheap swarms of UAVs and USVs, but a larger calibre weapon can engage targets at a further (thus safer) distance - the Danish frigate Iver Huitfeldt fired 50-100 76mm rounds against an approaching drone when its ESSM missile system failed for 30 minutes - though the resulting weapons failures were actually the result of long-standing issues known to the Royal Netherlands Navy.

HMS Diamond has engaged Houthi airborne targets with its Sea Viper (48 Aster 30/15/1NT missiles). On April 24, 2024 it was HMS Diamond's Sea Viper system that shot down a Houthi ASBM, a first for the Sea Viper/Aster missile system (see final paragraph here). HMS Diamond's 2 x 30mm DS-30B cannon and 2 x 20mm Phalanx 1B close in weapon system (CIWS), have also been seen action, and these guns are mounted on the flanks of Daring-class Type 45 destroyers like HMS Diamond.


image: Seaforces.org. A 30mm DS-30B autocannon and 20mm Phalanx Block 1B aboard a Type 45 Daring class Destroyer
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The DS-30B is a stabilized Oerlikon KCB 30mm cannon with a pedestal-mounted 30mm automatic cannon that can fire proximity fused ammunition. Here is a report of 5-inch fused ammo for the USN as an example of this concept. The UK RN has not disclosed if it uses such fuse ammo. The KCB has an effective range of 3km, while the Phalanx's is 1.5km, now considered marginal against supersonic threats. 

To upgrade its ships' self-defence capabilities against asymmetric threats, the RN has experimented with adding Marlet LMM (Lightweight Multirole Missiles) to its DS30M Mk2 mounts (which use the Bushmaster 30mm canons) but this has not been successful. 

The latest news is that the RN is going Star Wars, by outfitting many of its ships with the 50kW Dragonfire Lase Directed Weapon (DEW) from 2027.

The Type-45 Daring Class entered Royal Navy service in 2009 and is scheduled to retire in 2038, when the planned Type 83 destroyer replaces them. The RN's Type 23 Duke-class frigates are also retiring by 2035, which means that the Royal Navy is phasing out the 4.5-inch naval gun, so restoring its capabilities against aerial targets is not a priority.

The Type 26 Gasglow-class frigates, the first of which is now 65% complete, has switched to the 5-inch (127mm) Mark 45 Mode 4 naval gun, which is used by the US Navy and the Royal Australian Navy and is capable of firing programmable and guided munitions.

April 27, 2024

TKMS Launches Singapore's 4th Invincible Class Sub

thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) on April 22, 2024 launched RSS Inimitable the fourth Type 218SG Invincible-class submarine for the Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN) at a ceremony in Kiel, Germany. The launch was attended by Teo Chee Hean, Singapore's Senior Minister and Coordinating Minister for National Security, and Boris Pistorius, Germany's Minister of Defense. 

Image: TKMS. Note the 'panel' next to the visible torpedo tube muzzle, likely a sonar module. 
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As I mentioned in my "State of ASEAN Submarine Forces: Singapore" article in June 2023, with the introduction of the Invincible class, Singapore will have undergone three generations (Challengers, Archers, now Invincibles) of submarines in the space of 25 years. 

After a contest between TKMS and Naval Group (Scorpene), TKMS was awarded a contract for two boats (then called Type 218SGs) in 2013, and a second order of two in 2017. Construction, in Kiel, Germany, on the lead (renamed Invincible class sub) RSS Invincible, started in 2014 - it was launched in 2019. Then the second, RSS Impeccable and third, RSS Illustrious, were simultaneously launched in 2022.

TKMS states that the Invincible class, at "70m length and around 2,000 tons" displacement, currently are the largest submarines the yard has built. If this statement is true, then the Invincibles are slightly larger than their Israeli cousins, the Dolphin II (68.6m length, 2,050 tons surface displacement), through the upcoming Type-212CD class boats that entered production in September 2023, and the  Israeli Dakar class, ordered in 2022, will be larger boats.

RSS Inimitable is the fourth and last of the class (as stated in a press release by Singapore's Ministry of Defense). TKMS will hand over the sub to the Republic of Singapore Navy in 2025, after testing and outfitting.

Image: TKMS. Note flank sonar arrays (often classified items shielded from public view) have not yet been fitted.
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RSS Invincible still remains in Kiel for RSN crew training at the German Navy's Submarine Training Centre, at Eckernfoerde Naval Base. TKMS has also signed an MoU with Singapore's ST Engineering to 'enhance the Type 218SG Type 218SG submarines over their operational lifetimes". This further enhances the relationship the RSN and ST Marine have established with TKMS and the German Navy.

Video: RSN Youtube channel: Join ME5 Francis Lee as we follow him in a day of his life as a Submarine Project Officer in Kiel, Germany

RSS Impeccable arrived in Singapore in July 2023 (see my article) for local sea trials and workup, and will be fully operational and commissioned later this year. This will likely coincide with the retirement of the RSS Conqueror, a 57-year-old boat that has been in Singapore commission for 20 years.

Singapore media claims the RSS Inimitable will be delivered to Singapore by 2028.


Here and above. Channel News Asia (cna) announced RSS Inimitable's launch.
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April 26, 2024

Aussie SemiAutonomous Weapons Forge Ahead

Following the early and within budget Ghost Bat and Ghost Shark success stories comes a rapid SemiAutonomous patrol boat development - see APDR's article. All these semi-Australian projects are forging ahead - all unmanned-SemiAutonomous-remotely piloted technologies. These terms sound contradictory, but all these represent multi-node, distributed technologies with some artificial intelligence input.  

The above projects are in such contrast with almost inevitable failures in Australia's MANNED vessel and submarine projects. 

The Australian Government should look hard at cancelling more manned "Shipwrecks in the making". All Australia's Manned naval projects seem to be 10 years late at 3 times original cost estimates. 

Manned projects might increasingly be seen as gratuitous career promotion opportunities for too many armed forces offices seeking combat overseas. Some members of my family directly recognised this. We need more computer experts who can operate systems remotely. 

The studies of how to safely weaponize SemiAutonomous systems is a major study of Five Eye software and computer hardware specialists. I think a subset of this study are some  activities under AUKUS Pillar 2. Having some men in the loop makes such systems safer

eg. the US showed the way with weaponized Predators and Reaper UCAVs. On the whole they functioned extremely well in the Middle East, Afghanistan and less well known theatres. These US UCAVs were/are being remotely piloted from Creech Air Force Base, Nevada, with in the loop approvals coming from Washington DC, and forward observation posts in theatre. The public don't/didn't hear about the 1,000s of  successful weapon release and/or reconnaissance Ops, only about the rare targeting mistakes. Reapers over Yemen might now be very much the go.

So Australia is catching up and will probably save A$Billions avoiding totally manned traditional weapon solutions.

April 25, 2024

Did Israel throw ROCKS at Iran?

I would like to leave the geo-political issues of the 2024 Israel-Iran confrontation here and here to political experts (I only have a major in international relations). Though my opinion is that Iran has its own perception as a major player in the Middle East, and had to 'demonstrate' its power to strike Israel.

300 Iranian one-way UAVs, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles are a lot. It would overwhelm most unprepared nations, and cause thousands of casualties. 

The Iranians did prewarn the Saudis, Kuwaitis, Jordanians and Iraqis. So Israel, the US and NATO had plenty of warning to set up combat air patrols and pre-position their warships that have SAMs and AAA. We are also not certain which weapons Iran used, and they could have used older weapons that had a higher chance of interception or failure. 

But people were going to be killed - no one, including the IDF, expected Israel's integrated aerospace defense system, in conjunction with allies' fighters and air defense, would stop 99% of the weapons.

Nevatim Airbase (believed to be a storage site for nuclear weapons) is probably one of the better-guarded sites in Israel. So Iran scoring a couple of ballistic missile hits on it is high on Iran's 'achievement' list, not the fact that little damage was caused. The one video of incoming I have seen shows ballistic, unguided munitions, so they may have not been a priority for Israel's Iron Dome or David's Sling SAMs.

I think Iran lucked out - with little damage and no deaths in Israel. Israel could have  responded in a number of ways, from using a remote control machine gun within Iran to assassinate another Iranian nuke scientist, to storm of nuclear-tipped Jericho missiles.

Instead the IDF choose to throw 3 ROCKS at Iran.

The Rafael ROCKS.

Image: Rafael/IDF of a ROCKS test missile - nicely done up in telemetry/unarmed red with black and white checks.
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The ROCKS Autonomous Extended Stand-Off Range Air-to-Surface Missile was first shown at Aero India 2019, and according to its sales brochure, has anti-radiation features and uses an Inertial Navigation System (INS) to work in GPS-denied areas.

ROCKS is likely a variant of Rafael's Sparrow Ballistic target missile, which is a two-stage missile air-launched from an F-15. As this article in the Financial Times shows, spent first-stage boosters were found in Wasit Province, in eastern Iraq, about 560km West of the Isfahan target area, on the night of Israel's retaliation.

image: Rafael of Sparrow target ballistic missiles
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The Financial Times article highlights IDF attacks on Syrian air defence positions. This was followed by Israeli aircraft crossing into Syrian airspace to fire the air-launched ballistic missile(s) at the Isfahan Air Base. 

There were early Iranian reports that it shot down 3 Israeli drones over the Isfahan area. If there were any such drones they were probably coordinated to distract or EW lure Iranian air defenses to mask the real ballistic missile action.

The Times of Israel published an article based on a New York Times report (paywall) that claims Iran did not detect the incoming missile, and it damaged a 30N6E2 Flip Lid target-engagement radar of the S-300PMU2 battery protecting the airbase.

So Israel basically replied to Iran: "Hey, you fired 300 weapons at me, 1% hit and caused minor damage, while I fired 3 or 4 missiles that penetrated your air defences and took out an S-300 radar at your most sensitive airbase/facility. You wanna play a game of missile polo? I have nukes and lots (probably) of conventional Jericho and Popeye Turbo missiles, so u wanna bet on whether Tel Aviv or Tehran ends up the smoking radioactive crater?"

So I hope that we are backing off (again) from nuclear brinkmanship (Pete predicts there will be a second strike on Iran that might precede Israel's invasion of Rafah, in Gaza). But the true winners of this missile ping-pong will be Rafael and Raytheon, who will enjoy massive sales of air defence equipment this year - as countries replenish expanded stock, and to better protect themselves.

Update 15/4/2024 - the Indian Crystal Maze 2

Two days after the IDF strike on Isfahan, Indian media reported that the Indian Air Force successfully test fired a Crystal Maze 2 ALBM from a Su-30 MKI fighter. 

Crystal Maze 2 is an 'Indian-developed' version of the ROCKS, and it is currently unclear if India is procuring this missile for Rafael, or testing an Indian-produced variant. Nevertheless, it is clear that India has noted the use of ROCKS by the IDF and has decided to disclose that India now has the same ALBM capabilities.


ANZAC Day 2024

Australia and New Zealand commemorates ANZAC Day on April 25th each year. It is our secular "holiest" day. The day remembers the sacrifice of troops of the combined Australian and New Zealand Army Corps (ANZAC) in World War One and of Australians and New Zealanders who fought in all later wars. 

The following are songs and photos I've put together to remember them.


Anzacs (or 'diggers') at Gallipoli in a rare quiet moment in 1915. Gallipoli's field Hospital tents were  constantly being shelled by the Turks, because the Turks knew (and it was true) that ammunition was actually being stored in some of those tents... Much safer for the wounded to be taken to nearby ships and then to nearby islands, like Lemnos.
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My Grandfather, Staff Sergeant G. Leo A Coates, working at the 1st Australian Stationary Hospital on Lemnos. 1915. He's doing an X-ray of a bullet in the soldier's leg. My grandfather copped a lot of X-rays (decades later dying of cancer) as there was no lead operator shielding, only a canvas curtain. My grandfather then shifted to Gallipoli later in 1915. (Donor Royal Australasian College of Surgeons - Photo courtesy AWM Archive Store).
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This great song And the Band Played Waltzing Matilda by Eric Bogle is about the life of a digger wounded at Gallipoli.

There is a myth that true Anzacs were and are all front line infantry. Some other occupations were actually more dangerous than infantry. Pilots often suffered the highest casualties of any service with about a quarter dying in training then another quarter in combat. Submariners, were often in the greatest danger both from the enemy and also from accidents (together killing about a half of submariners in total). Here is the Navy Hymn for Submariners.


Here and above the hymn Abide With Me is traditionally sung at ANZAC Day services. The singer is Hayley Westernra from Christchurch, New Zealand.
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Iconic Vietnam War photo by Michael Coleridge. Diggers of 5 Platoon, B Company, 7RAR, waiting for Iroquois helicopters to land and return them back Nui Dat at the end of an operation.
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 The song I Was Only 19 (by that under-appreciated Australian group Redgum) is in memory of Australians who fought, died and were injured in Vietnam (early 1960s to 1972).


Here and above. I think Eric Bogle’s The Green Fields of France (also known as "No Man's Land" and "Willie McBride)  (above) is the best anti-war song ever written. As a haunting poem, march, song of love and injustice it is a fitting anthem to remember the men and women, living and dead, who are our people,  our Anzacs.

The Ode For The Fallen (lines 13 to 16) - here and above.
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April 22, 2024

Collins LOTE Part 1: Budgeted. Saab, LM & MTU

The Collins Life of Type Extension (LOTE) has been little discussed of late drawing suspicions it may be cancelled like many RAN ship and submarine projects. However I consulted the Australian Submarine Agency (ASA) website which has recently added more certainty to the LOTE project, budget and all. 

See https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/collins-class-submarines    

"...Australia's Collins Class submarine fleet will undergo a life-of-type extension (LOTE) at Osborne shipyard in South Australia. 

The LOTE will keep the Collins Class submarine operationally capable and available into the 2040s, supporting the transition to Australia's nuclear-powered submarines.

Budget: $4.3 - $6.4 billion

Timeframe: First LOTE scheduled for mid-2026

Industry: more than 1500 jobs

Location: Osborne South Australia (LOTE) and Henderson Western Australia (sustainment)" 

PETE COMMENT

The estimated range of the Budget: $4.3 - $6.4 billion (Australian dollars) is clearly quite broad. 

Some defence commenters, with some accuracy, claim it is best to triple an Australian government defence program budget estimate due to the many uncertainties impacting multi-year projects. Such uncertainties include:

-  shortage of skilled shipbuilding labour in the "white" Western world generally (meaning higher wages than intended are required to attract labour). No such shortage exists in Northeast Asian countries.

-  higher than expected inflation, which has already hit Australia since January 2023

-  project deadlines not met, part caused by:

-  the Australian defence industry tendency to add many more upgrade items "bells and whistles" than originally envisaged.

So the new "Rule of Triples" ((you saw it coined here first) in Australian budgeting may mean (with 2 years of LOTEing for each of the 6 Collins = 12 years) by 2038 the budget may well balloon to between A$13 Billion and A$19 Billion.

Some might now say - "well if LOTEing costs that much why don't we buy/build a new class of Interim Conventional Submarines?

To which I counter: 

It would take about 3 years (ie. by 2027) for the Australian Government to summon up the support for New Conventional Submarines.

Then 2 years minimum to choose the foreign main contractor (2029).

Then the Build in Osborne Political Reality (ie. no whole sub foreign build) pans out to Signing the Contract (2030).

Then the always slow Osborne build takes 15 years (2045) until first of class is launched.

Then 2 years ironing out working up bugs until Commissioning first of class (2047).

Then each successive submarine in a class of 6 would take around 18 months to build ie. launched in June 2048, Dec 2049, June 2051, Dec 2052 and June 2054).

The kicker is these New Conventional "Interim" Submarine timing realities would directly clash with the SSN-AUKUS timings which may start to be built in Osborne in 2042. Osborne simply wouldn't simultaneously build 2 types of submarines unless in a runup and during World War Three (maybe China and Russia vs Democracies including Australia). But I digress.

So LOTEing makes sense especially if Saab Kockums is involved, in part because Saab did the Mid-Life Upgrade of Sweden's Gotland-class, similar to Collins in significant ways. A new Combat System for the Collins, integrated by Lockheed Martin, may be a high price aspect. New diesels needed, probably MTU 4000s, will also be expensive. Submarines are always expensive.