A France wide lack of nuclear workers foils claims France could deliver Barracuda SSNs to Australia quickly and easily – outside of the likely delay: 2050 or later (see my previous article).
Also Barracudas lack all
important VLS. Only VLS can launch ever larger diameter future longer range
hypersonic missiles for land attack. Such missiles would act as a partial
deterrent against China.
On nuclear workers see the
French source “France’s struggle to deliver a second nuclear era” by Sarah
White in Saint-Marcel (France) at the Financial Times APRIL 23 2023
at https://www.ft.com/content/d23b14ae-2c4e-458c-af8a-22692119f786 which
includes:
“France, which employs
some 220,000 people in the nuclear industry, needs to rebuild a deep bench of
qualified workers for its new nuclear drive. Among them will be highly trained
welders like Geoffray and his colleagues — EDF estimates France will need double
the 500 it has today by 2030. At the Hefaïs welding school launched last year
by the company and other manufacturers near Cherbourg, on the northern coast
close to France’s nuclear submarine shipyards, the complexities of even that task are apparent.
After nine months of
training there, including with headsets on virtual equipment, they can qualify
for a first job, says Corentin Lelièvre, the school’s director. But it can take
five to seven years of experience and repeat training before they are entrusted
with the most intricate tasks.
Those can require
developing a quasi-acrobatic skill of being able to keep a steady hand while
working upside down, or using a mirror in cramped corners of a reactor circuit
to guide the weld — a one-shot operation that workers can’t go back on once
it’s started. It also involves learning to work safely in a radioactive
environment, and in a post-Fukushima world, how to grapple with extra layers of
documentation.”
++++++++++++
France’s future “PA-NG” nuclear aircraft carrier + its two future K22 reactors are two more
major nuclear projects confronting France’s naval nuclear worker shortage.
After the Attack fiasco, we are strogly reluctant to any sub coop with Australia !
ReplyDeleteHi Pete
ReplyDelete2 comments
1-The Barracuda attack SSN is an up to date dedicated hunter with a reduced crew and size, relying on the civilian PWR fuel infra (before and after..none of the HEU 27 UKN sub have been dismantleed so far..)Relevant to SK , Japan , US or China, less to India, not at all to Australia
It is not aquipped with VLS (SLCM capability marginal ) as in the Fr approach it is a very expensive and clumsy way (reloading at sea?) to launch cruise missile (sub or hyper) vs mobile trucks or aircraft (Sebastopol, Kertch bridge, russian attacks , israeli..)
VLS is a n alternative to SSBN (SK , Israel) or the results of interservices rivalry with excess SSBN assets as in the US)..Launching a 100 /400 kg warhead, with metric precision inthe 500 to 1500km....can be done cheaply and more massively
2-the people shotage is real everywhere, in the crew and in the yards and worlwide
You are talking of a 5/10 years ramp up
Many assets in the UK ,Italy, Germany are idle due to crew shortage
In the yards the limiting factor is people , hihly trained operators in particular such as qualified /certified welders.Last week it was revealed thea the US yards will no be able to deliver more than one SSN in 2025 (USNI /Feb 20)..Aukus not obvious
The Naval yards for subs are full for the next 10/15 years as well as probably the nuclear reactor Indret facilityy (Hence the habit of Naval to help build sub yards, in India , Brazil ,probably in Surabaya, ..and the "huge cost" of the cancelled Aus programm..
Clearly restarting an effort in AUS would be "a stretch" as building a 7th or an 8th barracuda for the Fr Navy would be a priority, and a political sensitive issue
TheFr vision is that the objective of the Aus defense is to be completely interopereable with the US in naval and aiborne assets ..Constellation frigates , Helo ..
To tackle the general issue several initiatives are in place in Engineering and vocational schools
Started in 2022 the HEFAIS welding school,10MM euros investment,new building ,1 instructor for 6 students, started in 2023 and "produces" 200 highly trained welders /years(the curricula is on theirsite)not only for N but also for yards or oil and gas.9 months initial training.. , some unemployed people , women..effect visible in 2025 +.Free as paid by companies or unemployement / local Gov agencies
Pete as anonymous said, shortage of skilled technical labour is a problem in most countries in the OECD, including Australia, France, UK and USA.
ReplyDeleteThis is very much a product of the 1990s ideology to downsize government technical agencies and hire in private sector suppliers. The governments then typically eliminated or shrank their technical training at this time was another budget saving. Trouble is, most private sector companies are notoriously stingy on training, assuming they can always buy any labour they need from the market.
So now we are in the 2020s, 30 years later, and the pre 1990s stream of trained tradies and technicians are starting to retire. They will take 4 or 5 years to replace.
Pete
ReplyDeleteOn the subject of happier news, South Korea (Hyundai) and Babcock have signed an agreement to develop submarines (SSKs) for the export market! This would be an under 3000 tonne SSK that might meet the needs of Philippines or Indonesia.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/02/hd-hhi-to-develop-submarines-for-the-export-market-with-babcock/
If France, UK and USA are all unable to assist Australia build submarines now (whether SSN or SSk) Australia ought to be talking to Japan and South Korea. In this regard the inclusion of both in the list of options for the GP frigates is an encouraging development.
Hi Anonymous at 2/24/2024 7:34 PM
ReplyDeleteI agree after the 2021 Attack fiasco, France's Naval Group would be understandably reluctant to any undertake another submarine deal with Australia!
Also Japan, is hesitant in dealing with Australia after Australia's 2014 "handshake" promise in 2014 to buy Japanese subs led to Australia (under a new Prime Minister) rejecting Japan in 2016.
Australia is a poor risk - sellers Beware! Shipbuilding is too highly politicized in Australia for long term contracts to be honoured by Australia.
Regards Pete
Hi French Anonymous at 2/25/2024 12:08 AM
ReplyDeleteI have responded to one of your points, on LEU vs Australia's responsibility for HEU submarine reactor waste disposal see:
"SECRET Clauses of AUKUS SSN Agreement"
of Feb 26, 2024
at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/02/secret-clauses-of-aukus-ssn-agreement.html
Regarding Barracuda not having VLS - yes this is a major disadvantage compared to US VLS SSNs and presumably future VLS SSN-AUKUS. A Barracuda reloading its missiles at sea would reveal itself to Russian and Chinese sensors. It defeats the "discrete operation" so prized for $multi-Billion submarines.
Hypersonic SLCMs launched by SSN or SSKs have a big future. But Australian SSKs would simply not have the diesel round-trip-range to get within 1,500km of such critical Chinese targets as Shanghai or Beijing.
On "2-the people shortage" you make some very good points which I aim to address on Thursday.
Regards Pete
Thanks Anonymous at 2/25/2024 9:43 PM
ReplyDeleteAs with French Anonymous above - on Thursday I aim to respond to your skilled worker shortage issue that is impacting the whole (white) Western world.
But significantly there is less of a skilled worker shortage in Northeast Asian Western countries (South Korea, Japan and Taiwan).
Meanwhile China is developing and building new ships and SSKs at a great rate. Fortunately China seems not yet satisfied that its newest SSNs (Type 095s) and SSBNs (096s) should be mass produced.
Regards Pete
Hi Anonymous at 2/25/2024 9:54 PM
ReplyDeleteYes Babcock has been very active also signing agreements with Indonesia's PT PAL see https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/search?q=babcock and Babcock Canada with South Korea's Hanwha Ocean https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2023/06/canadian-submarine-replacement-long.html .
KSS-III export variants in the 2,000 and 3,000 tonne class may have big futures see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KSS-III_submarine#Export_variants
It would be in character if Australia finds all the SSN possibilities "too hard and costs too high" and opts for Japanese Taigeis, SK KSS-IIIs/3000s or simply XLUUVs after the 2025 Australian Federal Election. After all Australia has mapped out decades of local surface warship construction for remaininng Arafuras, large Hunter-class frigates and smaller General Purpose (GP) frigates.
Whether the six Large Optionally Crewed [but, for Australia CREWED without decent permanent living facilities] Surface Vessels from the US, decision morphs into 6 Australian built corvettes remains to be seen.
Regards Pete
Hi Pete
ReplyDeletePerhaps this is interesting for you Its about the Dutch Walrus replacement program. Next friday there will be a winner announcement. It seems like it that NAVAL Group is gonna be the winner
https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/9-vragen-over-finale-nieuwe-onderzeeboten-070324.html
Thanks Anonymous at
ReplyDeleteI have used your information for article
"Walrus Replacement Decision March 15? Naval Group?" of March 8, 2024
at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/03/walrus-replacement-decision-march-15.html
Regards Pete