Kym Bergmann, Editor APDR has written an excellent article concerning Australia's US$3 Billion AUKUS donation to the US's highly profitable submarine industrial base.
Kym's article is Australian, "Government deceit on AUKUS buy-in cost" of November 2, 2023 at https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/government-deceit-on-aukus-buy-in-cost/ which in part records:
"...late at night in Canberra – also on October 25 [2023] – Senate Estimates heard the following from the deputy head of the Australian Submarine Agency:
“Rear Adm. Buckley [said]: In terms of the uplift to the US
system, we have provision for US$3 billion—that’s the provision that we’ve
allocated within our model. On the UK side, we’re still working through what
that provision might be.”
And shortly afterwards:
“Senator Simon BIRMINGHAM: To be clear, it’s US $3 billion?
“Rear Adm. Buckley: It’s US $3 billion.
“Senator BIRMINGHAM: Is that funding subject to the normal currency adjustment that defence gets for major acquisitions and those factors? As the dollar has gone down, is defence having to find more to meet that US $3 billion.
“Rear Adm. Matthew Buckley: My short answer is yes, it would be subject to those arrangements. Our agreement with our partners was for US $3 billion, so yes, it would be.”
In summary, for at least the past eight months the government has implied a far lower figure will be given to the US rather than the actual amount – an unprecedented occurrence for large Defence contracts. The motivation is presumably to minimise embarrassment and live in hope that the correct [$4.6 to] $4.7 billion is never reported."
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Pete Comment
See my previous article on this matter "Virginia Purchase: US Dollars vs Australian Dollars" of September 7, 2023 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2023/09/virginia-purchase-us-dollars-vs.html ]
It is possible the US$3 Billion donation is just the first tranche of a US$1 Billion year on year donation to the US submarine industrial base.
That first tranche covering US$1 Billion (AU$1.5 Billion) for 2024 and then the same amount for 2025 and 2026.
The second tranche of US$3 Billion donation might then cover 2027, 2028 and 2029 and so on. In that way Australia might be donating US$1 Billion (AU$1.5 Billion) per year from 2024 through to 2039, when the 3rd Virginia might be received.
Hence the total Australian donation for 2024 through to 2039 (inclusive) may be US$16 Billion (AU$24 Billion).
Pete
ReplyDeleteI share your concern about the cost of AUKUS, which I have expressed multiple times before.
However I observe that politically, both sides of Australian politics have accepted AUKUS costs, and neither side argues them. I think that is because the way AUKUS implementation has been defined, it is effectively a budget saving in the short term.
In the next 5 to 10 years till SSN construction, AUKUS expenditure will be $10 billion on infrastructure and training only, and well below the $2 billion per year that would have been spent on Attack class SSKs. The big bills (buying Virginias and building SSN AUKUS SSNs) have been deferred to post 2030. By then the current generation of leders on both sides will be retired. Ergo they don’t care.
Is a Virginia “worth” $10 billion Aus? I think it depends. Compared to two Hunter frigates costing $5 billion Aus and needing four times the crew number, I would say yes. Compared to four or five TKM Type 216SG SSKs for the same price, obviously not.
Hi Anonymos at 11/03/2023 9:04 AM
ReplyDeleteHow can Australians have any confidence that Australia's largely opaque and SECRET AUKUS spending will be predictable and a saving?
The Australian Government's deception that the 3 Billion DONATION to the US SSN sector was in Australian dollars has been exposed as a much higher payment in US dollars. The US$3 Billion has been exposed as AU$4.6 Billion.
Just read https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/government-deceit-on-aukus-buy-in-cost/
One could assume Australia will continue to donate to the higly profitable US SSN industrial base at the rate of AU$1.54 Billion, year on year from now to 2039.
Have we been told otherwise in the SECRET AUKUS BUDGET?
How many AU$Billions per year will need to be spent on educating/training 1,000s of nuclear submariners, maintainers, shipbuilders, technicians, scientists, officials and nuclear safety experts from the late 2020s?