Shawn Chung’s November 14, 2023 comment and noting https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine#Boats_in_class has prompted me to add the following thoughts:
The
USN has announced the US intends to sell/deliver two used Block IV Virginias to
Australia in 2032 and 2035 see https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2023/11/13/heres-when-the-us-navy-plans-to-sell-subs-to-australia-under-aukus/
A downstream problem, which I don't think is being adequately addressed or at least publicized by the US, is that Australia will be receiving the last or near last two "pure SSN" Block IV submarines. This is at a time the US will be building "SSN compromised" Block V SSGNs. All meaning a higher proportion of Block Vs will be in the fleet than the USN may deem desirable.
10 Block Vs have been planned with the first to be commissioned by 2028 and one or two per year thereafter into the mid 2030s. So, as well as the US's AUKUS obligations impinging on actual numbers of Virginias available to the USN, there may be capability downsides in the mix of specific Virginia Blocks available to the USN.
I say "comprised" because the Block V's Virginia Payload Module (VPM) (see right sidebar of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine) is likely to involve negative trade-offs:
- a Block V will be 25m longer than a Block I-IV, and
- a Block V will be 2,300 tonnes heavier (higher displacement) than a Block I-IV).
This may negatively impact a Block V’s:
- speed (which may be 1 or 2 knots slower than a Block I-IV) and
- maneuverability (eg. a Block V can't accelerate or decelerate as quickly or turn as sharply as a Block I-IV)
In short the USN, until it begins to commission a return to "pure SSN" Virginia Block VIs and VIIs, towards the late 2030s, may have too many "SSN compromised" Block V SSGNs in its Virginia mix in the late 2020s to mid 2030s.
Peter Coates
Article from French site about SK SSN program.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/11/south-korean-admiral-claims-that-nuclear-powered-submarines-are-necessary/
“It is also worth mentioning that once South Korea starts developing its own SSN, France will be its natural partner as the United States refuses to give South Korea any sort of nuclear capabilities as written in the ROK-US Nuclear Agreement. Even after the revision of this agreement, the US is unlikely to allow selling nuclear fuels to South Korea as it views South Korea having nuclear capabilities as a breakdown of geopolitical balance in the Northeast Asia region.”
Hi Anonymous at 11/17/2023 12:39 AM
ReplyDeleteYes https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/11/south-korean-admiral-claims-that-nuclear-powered-submarines-are-necessary/ could be easily misconstrued.
And may even be a classic case of conflation.
The way I read it all Admiral Kim Myung-soo, the nominee for the ROK Joint Chief of Staffs said (in answer to a politician's question, about the usefulness of nuclear propelled subs) was:
“While those capabilities are needed, there are clear limitations as to what South Korea can do due to current ROK-US nuclear agreement restricts the use of nuclear materials in military use.”
THEN the more pro-nuke sub quotations in https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/11/south-korean-admiral-claims-that-nuclear-powered-submarines-are-necessary/ actually and confusingly come from:
- SK's Yulgok Kim, the secretary general of the ROK Forum for Nuclear Strategy
and
- Former SK naval Captain Moon Keun-sik, who serves as an adjunct professor at SK's Hanyang University who would appear to be the only one in the article floating the concept of French assistance.
It is notable that the article also leaves out the issue that FRANCE IS NOT HELPING BRAZIL WITH THE HARDEST ASPECT OF A NUCLEAR SUB, WHICH IS THE REACTOR. The reactor problem may have delayed Brazil's nuclear sub program by 5 to 10 years.
Regards Pete
from Fr Anonymous
ReplyDeleteThis story of Fr Nuclear transfer to SK sub is highly unlikely
This was not done to Brazil, a century long traditionnal Fr friend (numerous military cooperations , joint border in Fr overseas Dpt , Guyana,active fights against "garimperos" and organized crime...only cloud is the Mercosur/EU commercial dispute about Brazilian agricultural products
In the case of SK a lot of bad blood..accusation of "copy cat ", scandal with KHNP, thousands of safety cerificates forged(https://academic.oup.com/jwelb/article/13/1/47/5837954)
KHNP is a direct competitor to EDF .After winning a Nuc Job in the UAE, and after the "KNHP/Kepco scandal", the plant start up was delayed by 2 years to allow EDF to make audits and EDF is now the plant operator on a toll basis for the EAU utility
I believe Japan or SK can do it on their own, because they have the complete fuel cycle technologies for PWR,and could as the French piggy back on it.A 15 years project at least ,with a pilot plant on shore..
Hi Fr Anonymous at 11/18/2023 1:13 AM
ReplyDeleteThanks for your info. I wasn't aware of that France-SK friction.
I also think France would not want to alienate China if France helped SK build nuclear subs. Macron has built strong economic and political (even neutral strategic) relations with China.
Looking at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93France_relations#Economic_issues
"At a time when China–U.S. economic relations were deeply troubled, with a trade war underway, French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese leader Xi Jinping signed a series of large-scale trade agreements in late March 2019 which covered many sectors over a period of years. The centerpiece was a €30 billion purchase of airplanes from Airbus.
Going well beyond aviation, the new trade agreement covered French exports of chicken, a French-built offshore wind farm in China, and a Franco-Chinese cooperation fund, as well as billions of Euros of co-financing between BNP Paribas and the Bank of China. Other plans included billions of euros to be spent on modernizing Chinese factories, as well as new ship building.[29]
also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93France_relations#Taiwan_issues
"During an April 2023 visit to China, French President Emmanuel Macron called for Europe to reduce its dependence on the US and avoid being drawn into a confrontation between the US and China over Taiwan."
Regards Pete