Thailand Suspends Chinese Submarine Deal (Wrong Subs Anyway)

Shawn Chung has provided the following acute assessment:

With a new, non-military government in power in Thailand, we now get the inevitable news that another Thai military white elephant project has been suspended.. not cancelled, suspended. 

As I wrote about the Chinese S26T submarine deal before, it has a number of issues - political (buying three submarines during the COVID pandemic was not what the Thai people wanted), as well as the MTU diesel engine fiasco - how this was written into the contract actually give the Thai's a legal out, thought its not known what exactly went in the G2G contract.  

If the S26T deal was completed, the Royal Thai Navy (RTN) would have acquired a single 2,600 ton AIP submarine for approximately $390 million, which doesn't sound like a bad deal, but the systems and weapons were never openly discussed. For a general comparison, Pakistan's deal for the similar Hangor-class is estimated at $4-5 billion for 8 vessels, between $500 to $625 million per boat.  

According to the reports, Thailand will instead seek to purchase an anti-submarine frigate from China, which would add about $60 million more to the project cost. No specific frigate type was mentioned, though the Type 054A (Jiangkai II) has just ended its production run, with the final two (from an order of four) just delivered to Pakistan.

Thailand intends to revisit the S26T project at a later date, but there's no news on what will become of the first S26T - which is estimated to complete construction in 2025. There are a number of possibilities, including the hull sitting pier side for a number of years until the Thais reactivate the project. But the boat could be absorbed into the Chinese navy or sold the Pakistan navy - though there may be Thai-specific design quirks, like an enlarged captain's quarters, that may have need to be altered.

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Pete Comment - Wrong Subs Anyway

(Map courtesy US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA))

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Flashback to this 2015 SubMatts article and it seems the US1.1 Billion deal for Thailand to buy 3 x S26Ts was more about Thai inter-service politics, payoffs and appeasing China, than logic. When the Thai Army staged a successful coup in May 2014 largesse needed to flow to the Army's junior partner, the Navy. This came in several forms including permitting a big ticket purchase of submarines (for which officials and officers receive "commissions"). China, an important trading partner and military threat to Thailand, offered 3 subs at a very low price (by the high cost standards of subs).   

The major operating environments for Thai submarines, the Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea, are simply too shallow for the large 2,600 tonne S26T subs that China is offering. In the map above Thailand's surrounding sea depths severely limit operations for large subs. The lightest blue (almost white) for the seas/oceans on the map indicate sea depths of less than 200 meters around Thailand's whole coastline. This is for Thailand's west coast (Andaman Sea) and especially east coast (Gulf of Thailand - out to hundreds of kilometers). Wiki indicates the Gulf of Thailand has an average depth of 58m, with its maximum depth being only 85m.

Thailand should be considering submarines of 500 tons or less. Small subs can operate more safely than large subs in shallow seas - less chance of colliding with the seafloor. Small subs are also harder to see in shallow water and have smaller operating costs than large subs. Three evolved submarines of displacements between South Korea's 200 tonne Dolgorae-class and Germany's 500 tonne Type 207s could operate much more discretely and cheaply in Thailand's shallow seas.