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Since August 1, 2023 Oleg7700 from Israel has kindly provided links and details on the first sightings of INS Drakon aka Dragon at the TKMS shipyard in Kiel, Germany.
Drakon is the third submarine of the Dolphin 2 class. Drakon is very different from the preceding two Dolphin 2s in having a curiously extended fin/sail.
The purpose of the fin/sail might merely be for streamlining/quietness, or to contain more masts/sensors or perhaps to house between 2 to 4 vertically launched missiles.
I would estimate Drakon's fin/sail height as being about 6 meters tall. When added to Drakon's beam of 7 meters, that would permit a missile 12.5 meters tall.
Such a missile might be an enlarged version of Israel's existing Popeye Turbo nuclear tipped supersonic cruise missiles or a new Hypersonic missile. Perhaps it might turnout to be a submarine launched version (SLBM) of Israel's Jericho family of ground launched ballistic missiles. Alternatively India is known to joint develop and test missiles with Israel, so an Israeli version of India's existing K-4 SLBM/IRBM might also be possible.
The ability of Popeye Turbo SLCMs, from eastern Mediterranean launch points, to hit Tehran has been a technical and strategic reality for over a decade.
The value of an Israeli K-4 SLBM, with a range of 4,000 km, might include the ability to hit any city in "Islamic nuclear bomb" owning Pakistan. Saudi Arabia reportedly helped fund Pakistan's nuclear program. In turn Pakistan reportedly has a deal with Saudi Arabia to transfer Pakistani nuclear waheads to Saudi Arabia's long range ballistic missile bases at Al Sulayyil and Al-Watah. Such a transfer might be in a buildup to a Saudi war with Israel. Israel's "counter-deal" against Pakistan may be "Pakistan might be at risk of Israeli nuclear warhead impacts if Pakistan is too helpful in supplying nuclear warheads to the Saudis or in a nuclear exchange between Israel and Saudi Arabia". India, Pakistan's nuclear nemesis, might also see value in Israel being an additional country that could threaten Pakistan.
Eighteen months ago Oleg7700 also located this possible artwork (below) of Israel's future Dakar-class Dolphin 3s to enter service around 2031. The artwork first appeared in Germany's "Kieler" nachrichten news. Comparing the above photos with the artwork below clearly shows the extended fin/sail characteristic. The artwork below also implies the Dakars will incorporate the "Diamond Hull" low sonar reflection technology that TKMS is introducing into its future Type 212CD submarines from around 2029.
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Right now, I think there are two major trends in conventional submarine design.
ReplyDeleteThe first is size. For many years, there weren't really any modern diesel submarines of large size (around 3,000 tons or more) and range (>15,000 nm). The Soviet Union did have conventional submarines with an enormous radius of action (e.g. Tango-class), but these had to rely on the aged principles of the Type XXI submarine (with inferior submerged performance to the German wartime design) in as late as the 70s. (The succeeding and far more modern Kilo-class was smaller with a much-reduced range.) But in recent years, Defense Companies have increasingly come up with designs of large, AIP-equipped subs that can cover a lot of distance (examples include Type 216, Type 212CD (E), Blekinge Oceanic, Shortfin Barracuda, S-80 Plus, Soryu/Taigei, KS-III).
The second trend is VLS cells for SLBM capability, which is most certainly the purpose of this extended sail. I can imagine Drakon to be used primarily as a one-off test platform for the newly developed missiles so that the technology will be ready by the time the Dakar boats arrive. Since Israel/TKMS will follow suit after KS-III kicked off this trend, I can also imagine cooperation with South Korea for missile development, although Israel's missiles will likely be quite a bit larger than Korea's Hyunmoo 4-4. Certainly very interesting to see such a large sail on a modern submarine when people think they will disappear entirely within this century, a charming callback to the early Soviet SSB(N)s!
Overall, these two trends clearly point toward an expansion of conventional submarine capabilities into areas that were thus far reserved for nuclear submarines. While I can understand this striving, I'd doubt that the enlargening of conventional submarines can give them the same strategic perks that the nuclear submarine possesses by its very nature (unlimited power!!!; i.e. infinite (submerged) range, blistering speeds). I suppose the biggest benefit of conventional subs, quietness, has already come quite close to its optimum, meaning that constructors are now reorienting toward special features (e.g. diamond shape) and broader capabilities and strategic value (range, armament), while not making the submarine much less quiet than its predecessors -- but certainly much more expensive to aquire for potential contractors due to its size.
Israel has been developing ICBMs since the 1970s - an SLBM or four on an AIP submarine may be Israel establishing a nuclear triad.
ReplyDeleteThe Dolphin II could have a modular system, similar to the Virginia Payload Module (VPM) that can be configured for ballistic and/or cruise missiles, or UUVs.
Hi Shawn at 8/04/2023 10:25 PM
ReplyDeleteIndeed although Israel has nuclear tipped "Popeye Turbo" missile (probably a Tomahawk-like SLCM with a rocket boosted supersonic (still quite slow) end-run)) since the early 2000s see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popeye_(missile)#Popeye_Turbo_Submarine_Launched_Cruise_Missile
it is new generation Hypersonic Missiles or SLBMs (of hupersonic speed) that will make the Dolphin submarines a much more potent leg of Israel's Nuclear Triad.
Yes Israel, with some South Korean, German and/or US designs may have a Virginia Payload Module like (called a Vertical Multi-Purpose Lock (VPML) in Europe) "that can be configured for ballistic and/or cruise missiles, or UUVs" also useful for Special Forces stores, a diver delivery vehicle or as an airlock for divers.
Cheers Pete
Hi Pete
ReplyDeleteI doubt Pak will supply nuclear war heads to Saudi Arabia, even if Riyadh seeks nukes from Islamabad. The whole security situation of the region will change radically, if that happened.
Hi Kumar at 8/10/2023 11:21 AM
ReplyDeletePakistan may already have supplied nuclear warheads to Saudi Arabia.
Reasons include:
- a great deal of Saudi money going into Pak's nuclear weapons program https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Saudi_Arabia#Pakistan's_involvement
- and the poor accuracy, hence high CEP of the earlier CSS-2 IRBMs that China (another Pak ally) supplied to the Saudis. High inaccuracy/CEP is resolved by having a nuclear warhead in nuclear doctrine. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Saudi_Arabia#Missile_capability
I suspect large intelligence agencies of the US, UK, Russia, India and of course China (provider of the nuclear missiles to Saudi Arabia) are across this issue.
Cheers Pete
Thanks Submarine Autistry at 8/04/2023 9:00 AM for the information.
ReplyDeleteI've turned it into an article
"INS Drakon follows Soviet sail launched SLBM tradition."
of August 10, 2023
at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2023/08/ins-drakon-follows-soviet-sail-launched.html
Regards Pete
Hi Oleg
ReplyDeleteHere's another Israeli Navy success story:
"When Israel "Stole" Its Own Missile Boats from France" https://youtu.be/HomebMjvUoE
Cheers Pete
What Boat ? 2.
ReplyDeleteIsrael is using the Dolphins for ASW, ASuW, Special Operations Forces (SOF) ops and strategic power projection (Land Attack).
Like Brazil we can stretch an export boat for littoral waters to 70 meter.
That will give you an ocean going boat at a shoestring.
Publications say that the Dolphin is based at the Type 209.
But, during the Falklands war in 1982, the Argentinian Navy experienced allready tactical shortcomings with the Type 209. While generally satisfied with the 209 performance. They needed a higer dash speed of 25 knots, longer range & endurance of 70 days, and so better crew facilities, deeper diving depths and heavier armament. In fact, a much bigger boat with performance as close as possible to nuclear propelled sub's.
The Type 209 had a reload of just 6 torpedo's. To reload, some bunks and other equipment had to be removed, a floor lifted and the reload mannually hoisted behind the launch tube. That's not convenient in combat.
The 1700 - 2336 tonnes TR-1700 got that higher specified performance and a reload of 16 torpedo's, at a total load of 22 torpedo's.
Stretching a 6,2 m. wide Type 209, 6,3 m. wide Type 214 or 6,2 m. wide Scorpene to 70 meters will give an unfavourable hydrodynamic length / diameter ratio. And thus inadequate performance.
A 6,20 or 6,30 m. beamed hull will have 2 decks. In an ocean going boat you will need relatively more room for the crew. As you need more 'heads and hands' for maintenance and repairs. And a relatively bigger crew to prevent exhaustion. Thus 3 decks are needed.
Integration of 1.800 kg 6,25 meter long the Popeye Turbo cruise missile added 4 extra launch tubes of 650 mm.
The Spanish Navy concluded in a Strategic Defense Review in 2002/'03 that they needed an ocean-going boat instead of a littoral waters boat. The originally Spanish/French Scorpene (mediocre) export boat did not have the right performance. They needed the S-80A with considerably higher specifications.
The Scorpene has a max. torpedo load of 18 and 6 launch tubes. The official Dolphin 1 max. torpedo load is 16, including 6 reloads (Dolphin 2 officially 11 reloads, total 21). This Type 209 alike weapons load is to small for a strategic power projection roll. A Type 214 has 2x 324 is in total 648 battery cells. The TR-1700 has 8 x 120 = 960 battery cells, is 48 % more.
A strategic power projection boat based at the Type 209 and 214 will be inferior to traditional ASW + ASuW 214's and Kilo's. That's a foolish idea.
Conclusion: the Dolphin's ar based at the TR-1700.
Hi Locum at 8/20/2023 11:47 PM
ReplyDeleteI note you titled your 8/20/2023 11:47 PM comment "What Boat ? 2." Was there a "What Boat ? 1." that I missed?
I agree Israel's three (non-AIP) Dolphin 1 SSKs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolphin-class_submarine#Submarines_in_the_class were variants of the Type 209 .
While Israel's three Dolphin 2 SSKs seemed to be more based on the Type 214 owing to their larger size for longer endurance including their AIP (developed on the 212As and then 214s).
Dolphin 1s and 2s biggest variation from other TKMS subs (including the rather dead end TR-1700 209 variant) is their 10 torpedo tubes, 6 × 533mm and 4 × 650mm torpedo tubes.
The 650s are believed to be large enough to launch the main reason for the Dolphins which are as SSBs. They reportedly have nuclear tipped Popeye Turbo cruise-then supersonic end run missiles, and large enough for Special Forces divers to swim out and in.
The last Dolphin 2 - INS Dakar - is arguably the link between the Dolphin 2s and future Dolphin 3s with Dakar being a VLS test bed (as discussed in my article). Meanwhile I think Dakar would still retain the 4 x 650mm horizontal tubes (for Popeye Turbos) and 6 x 533s to still make it useful as an SSB until the VLS and new generation missiles, have been fully developed.
I see the last remaining TR-1700 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TR-1700-class_submarine ARA Santa Cruz, as an unsuccessful variant of the 209 and very unlike the 214 based Dolphin 2s. Very old Santa Cruz, may be capable of 25 knots but only for about 3 hours until its batteries are dangerously depleted and propulsion equipment dangerously stressed (SSK hours at speed based on discussions of Japan's even larger, successful, Soryus with Japanese Anonymous.)
So Argentina's rather misguided strategy of 2 large 209s as some sought of pseudo SSNs is very unlike US and Russian SSNs which are perhaps capable of 35 knots for weeks (with some wear and tear on propulsion machinery).
Sadly Argentina's other TR-1700, ARA San Juan, may have lacked proper maintenance which may have contributed to her sinking in 2018.
Regards Pete
What Boat ? 1.
ReplyDeleteAt the internet you can find photos which show the water level marks at Dolphin sub's with a draught of 6,2 meters, but also around 7,0 meters.
See: https://www.gettyimages.ca/search/more-like-this/504666982?family=editorial&assettype=image&phrase=dolphin%20submarine
A journalist visits a Dolphin boat in this article: https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/israel-deploys-nuclear-weapons-on-german-built-submarines-a-836784.html
Quote 1: "A (Combat Information Center) display lit up in red shows that the vessel's keel is currently located 7.15 meters (23.45 feet) below sea level."
Quote 2: "Deep in their interiors, on decks 2 and 3,..."
The TR-1700 and Walrus have a draught of around 7,0 meters too.
If we compare photos of the Dolphin and Type 212A with (temporary) scaffolding. This type of scaffolding has (international) standardized dimensions. The scaffolding besides the Dolphins has 5 stairs (10,2 m. high)and a bridge which is horizontally level with the hull top.
Pictures of Type 212A show scaffolding with 4 stairs (8,2 m.high) and a bridge, which goes up another 1 meter to the hull top. Makes approx 9,2 meters.
Grap your magnifying glasses and observe the close up photos via the Getty images link. The water level marks reveal a max. hull height of 8,95 meter. Google drawings at scale of the TR-1700. And you will find the same total hull height.
Including the sail, the total TR-1700 height is 15,3 m. Observation of Dolphin close-up's reveal a total height of 13,4 meter. The TR-1700 sail is much higher because of higher waves in the Southern Atlantic. While the official Dolphin height is 12,7 m. For example the total height of the Type 209/1400 is 12,5 m.
At the Gety images page with Dolphin sub's, there is also a photo, taken at 6 o'clock, of a Dolphin and Type 212A side by side. Clearly they do not have the same beam of the published 6,8 meter.
The S-80Plus, designed for ocean-going and power projection operations, has a side-by-side configuration of 3x MTU 12V 396 SE84's. This results in a cramped engine room in a 7,3 meter wide pressure hull. The Dolphin's have exactly the same 3 engine configuration and use the same engine type.
The published (Jane's) TR-1700 pressure hull beam is 7,3 meters. And comfirmed in drawings at scale. The Argentinian Navy say's the TR-1700 beam is 7400 mm (source: elsnorkel).
The 3 deck Dolphin submarine is clearly not derived from the 2 decks Type 209 and 2 decks 213. The 3 deck TR-1700 is the 'mother' design for the Dolphin and 3 decks Type 212A.
Locum,
Hi Locum at 8/26/2023 10:24 PM
ReplyDeleteAt "More on INS Drakon: Photos, Cutaway, etc." of August 25, 2023
at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2023/08/more-on-ins-drakon-photos-cutaway-etc.html
I did tentively raise the possibility:
"Might this photo of INS Drakon above, at TKMS Kiel, imply Drakon is so “fat” that it might contain 3 continuously inhabited decks rather than the usual 2 in Type 214s? Is the differing angle, at Kiel, of Drakon, in the photo below, sufficient to explain the difference in "fatness"? Or has one or both been "touched up" or distorted due to Israeli security concerns?"
But, in retrospect, I think only Israeli/German security-minded distortion of Drakon's image might suggest 3 inhabited decks. 2 inhabited being more likely as Israel, with its limited manpower, tends to use highly automated subs with few people. Israel's Dolphins probably have 35 regular crew + 10 occasional special forces and/or intercept linguist specialists. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolphin-class_submarine
In contrast US Virginia SSNs, with 135 officers/crew https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine
may be said to have 3 inhabited decks = upper 2 for a mixture command center, computer servers and accomodation + lowest deck for torpedo room https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/12/will-the-u-s-navy-build-a-block-vi-virginia-class-submarine/
So I think only 2 inhabited decks on any TKMS sub and the Walrus (descended from now scrapped US SSKs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbel-class_submarine ) is more likely.
Cheers Pete
I don't find any news on public sources & OSINT about an Israeli SLBM, so I think the best guess is for the enlarged sail is a VLS system for their Popeye Turbo SLCMs
ReplyDeleteHi Anonymous at 2/14/2024 8:08 PM
ReplyDeleteIsrael perfecting an SLBM likely requires commissioning INS Drakon first (this year or later) as the SLBM Test launch platform - see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Drakon
As with some previous launch tests - to achieve secrecy this may need to occur in the Indian Ocean in cooperation with India (if based on India's K-4)
or with South Korea if based on the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyunmoo#Hyunmoo-4 or 5
Alternatively Israel can fall back on its Jericho ballistic missile experiences - continuously improved since the 1960s https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jericho_(missile)
This last is thinking a navalized Jericho SLBM - maybe with French help.
All of these options may take years of secret "Black Project" testing.
In the meantime the real or mythical "Popeye Turbo SLCM" or Tomahawk-Israeli variant will be Israel's frontline nuclear SLCM
Regards Pete
Hi again Anonymous at 2/14/2024 8:08 PM
ReplyDeleteSee another of my joint US-Israeli and India-Israeli missile projects titled:
"From Israel's Popeye Turbo SLCM to an SLHM Requirement"
of Oct 5, 2023
at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2023/10/from-israels-popeye-turbo-slcm-to-slhm.html
Regards Pete