The Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter (APDR) carries a very interesting article: French “Arianespace Increases Engagement With Australian Industry” of January 11, 2023.
PETE COMMENT
French-Australian space cooperation would be a useful addition to Australia’s very long range military missile prospects. This would be an alternative to Australia’s Abbot Point (Gilmour) Spaceport project which is heavily US orientated.
It is significant that civilian ArieneSpace’s military associate is French ArianeGroup which designed France’s latest M51 SLBM – basically a submarine launched ICBM.
France Helping Israel
The extent of French booster/missile help to Israel might have possibilities for Australia. Going back to the early 1960s a past generation of French dual civilian-military rocket/missile technologists, working for Dassault, assisted Israel with the Syria-Egypt targeted Jericho I SRBM and Israel’s nascent satellite launch industry.
Covert French contractor assistance later contributed to Israel’s:
- Jericho II MRBM within range of Arab, Turkish and, of course, Iranian targets,
and
– Jericho III ICBM which entered service in 2011, with possible targets including Pakistan, Russia and China.
The Jericho III has booster commonalities to Israel's Shavit 2 space launch vehicle, which, launched in Israel, can deploy large Low Earth Orbiting military satellites.
Australia is already experiencing the US’s typical mixed-message, indecisive signals that it won't supply Virginia SSNs. This signals that Australia cannot rely on the US to assist in the more politically difficult Australian nuclear weapon capability.
The US has an unpredictable and inconsistent non-proliferation position versus de facto acceptance of new nuclear weapon "haves" (eg. India and Israel) record to uphold.
Israel and France’s nuclear weapon industry (less reliant on US Anglosphere direction) might assist an Australian ICBM, SSK or SSN hypersonic missile and aircraft delivered nuclear weapon program.
In that regard Australia can barter secure re-entry landing and other testing services at Woomera, other space observation facilities, submarine communication facilities and Uranium as part “payment” for French-Israeli assistance.
Hi Pete
ReplyDeleteComment from a "french Anonymous"
You describe a completely unlikely scenario
The Franco Israeli nuclear/aerospace relation in the 50 /early 60 is the result of a unique set of circumstances:
-in the 50, nuclear weapons were just more powerful weapons at the tactical level (David Crocket Bazooka, , artillery shells..)The concept of WMD , and its public/political impact,came much later..after the ICBM, the Cuban crisis ect
-In the 50 France was convinced that arab nationalism was at the core of its violent oppposition to colonial rules in N Africa..(the ennemy of my ennemy is..)
- Israel in the 50 was perceived as a very lonely underdog (Russia had stopped its initial support and the US and Brit were "neutral" if not hostile as they supported arab Kingdoms.A significant fraction of the Fr Nuclear establishment(since 1938..) was"jewish" (certainly in the Nazi definition).Marcel Dassault (born Marcel Bloch ) had survived miraculously German camps, less than 10 years before, while one of his brother and somme in-laws were assassinated in Auschwitz. These people were certainly moved by the situation and did not needed Fr government "arm twisting"!.The Fr Socialist party , often in power, had also deep rooted affinities with the Zionist/Socialists parties prevalent in Israel at that time
Hi French Anonymous
ReplyDeleteYou describe well the special French-Israeli/Jewish Diaspora missile and broader nuclear relationship of the 1950s and I would add 1960s for French nuclear device designs shared with Israel.
I would also add Macron's negative attitude to Australia (caused by termination of the Attack-class Program) would also make French nuclear weapon assistance to Australia unlikely.
While France is not subservient to America's selective non-nuclear proliferation policies France IS a member of the legal P5 nuclear-weapon states under the NPT https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons
Countries of this official self-serving post WW2 winners nuclear weapons club cannot be trusted by an Australia needing a nuclear deterrent against China.
Australia, with "Woomera" test results etc will be forced to build its own deterrent with assistance elsewhere - including Israel, Argentina and potentially India.
+++++++++++++++++
On a related matter (with French intelligence failing to detect...) the AUKUS announcement has effectively legalised SSN proliferation between Anglosphere countries.
France has not yet publically released details of renegotiation now permitting France to deliver a K15 nuclear reactor for Brazil's SN-BR SSN project. The reactor issue being the greatest obstacle for this Franch-Brazilian Program https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian_submarine_%C3%81lvaro_Alberto Program
Warm Regards
Pete
Hi Pete
ReplyDeleteAgain from Fr Anonymous
There was no real support from Fr to Isrel in the N sector beyond 1961/62, and it was the tail
BTW the collaboration was most intense in 1955/1956 while the NPT was signed in 1968 with effect in 1970. (Just to remind people that with long range rocket becoming available the nature of N weapons had changed dramatically). France was supporting the Isr airforce in particular,as nearly all the platforms were FR (Mystere , Mirage III , Nordatlas ,Magister, Helos..)out performing by far the new Soviet MIG 21 over Syria as of 1966 ,while the land forces relied on WW II weapons (Sherman, Halftrack..)and some French AMX 13 light tank. ..
The Israelis were on their own after 1960 ,stalling US efforts to stop them. Vietnam was taking their attention...By 1967 they had probably a few crude devices..for sure in 1973...
Their "instant" 1967 victory changed dramatically the US view (they were "winner" and made soviets real "loosers" and the very closed alliance started.
So by 1970 in the NPT signature period,the Isr N ambiguity policy, was the best solution for everybody including the Russians..(they could resist their "client"states requests)
Again "Fr anonymous" on Brazil Alvaro Alberto
ReplyDeleteThere is no indication that France is transfering a K15 reactor to Brazil,statements are around Fr help in the non nuclear part of Alb. Alv.
This makes sens as the N part is really a boiler,not the most complex in fact, but part of an elaborate upstream and downstream fuel cycle.The Brazilan have been developping these technologies on their own for many years.Potentially help in safety and operation?
Other aspects could be more complex in fact.
For instance propulsion. The enormous power has to transferred to the propeller .To avoid the mechanical noise in the water tru the shaft, difficult to isolate,the steam turbine is replaced by an electric motor.The tubo E generators , the converters and the giant permanent Magnet motors, (above 5MW ?) are very complex and rather unique.At high speed a pump jet is needed to avoid the noise created by cavitation (Air bubbles created in low water pressure zones, difficult to avoid as there are high pressure zones by definition !)
The more power you have, the faster you sail ..and the most you need (and can afford powerwise) a pumpjet
Obviously many systems are differents (hotel load mgt,desalinization plant , oxygen generation, batteries and diesel backup to name a few and are as critical
FRANCE DID SUPPLY BRAZIL WITH 2131-R SUBMARINE REACTOR TECHNOLOGY
ReplyDeleteHi French Anonymous @Jan 15, 2023, 1:34:00 AM, thanks for your reply.
But now, in a new world in which the US and UK have offered superior (to the K15) submarine reactors to Australia, France’s non-SUBMARINE REACTOR proliferation policies are increasingly OUT OF DATE.
Tim Fish in Rio for Shephard Media, reported, 9th April 2013 https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/naval-warfare/laad-2013-brazil-reveals-submarine-design-details/
“The PWR reactor design for the Brazilian Navy’s future nuclear-powered submarine (SN-Br) has been completed.
A model of the design, known as the 7% to 10% 2131-R [RENAP-11, 48MW] and an actual-size combustion element were on display at the navy’s stand at the LAAD exhibition in Rio de Janeiro.
A spokesperson from the Brazilian Navy told Shephard that THE REACTOR DESIGN HAD BEEN COMPLETED WITH ASSISTANCE FROM FRANCE but that the reactor itself would be built in Brazil at a later date.
The navy had two separate designs of the SN-Br on display at the stand. A model from the navy’s technology centre in Sao Paulo."
PETE'S SUSPICIONS
Interesting that 48MW thermal (t) is the rating of the 2131-R submarine reactor technology France supplied to Brazil (how much did Brazil pay?) and 48MWt is the rating of the CAS-48 (K48) reactor installed on the Rubis-class SSN?
In view of Brazil’s K48 variant now being under-powered and obsolete is France now planning to sell the more powerful 150MWt K15 to Brazil?
Regards Pete