March 17, 2022

New Russian SSBN & SSGN Ups Nuclear Threat

Thomas Nilsen for the Norway based Barents Observer March 16, 2022 reports:

"Sevmash readies two more subs as Putin elevates role of nuclear weapons"

In wake of big conventional losses in Ukraine, the role of nuclear weapons in Moscow’s defence and deterrence strategy may get elevated even further, says an expert on Russian military posture.

Preparations are in full swing this week at the giant Sevmash yard in the north Russian city of Severodvinsk. Two brand new nuclear-powered submarines will as soon as the sea ice melts sail out in the White Sea for testing. 

The “Generalissimo Suvorov” is of the 4th generation Borey-A class strategic submarines to be armed with 16 Bulava ballistic missiles, each capable of carrying six nuclear warheads. 

The second submarine to sail out for sea trials is “Krasnoyarsk” of the Yasen-M class 

Both vessels are now being prepared by the commissioning teams, the shipyard’s own TV-news channel Vesti Sevmash reports. 

“All work is carried out in accordance with the schedule,” noted Mikhail Fedyanevsky, head of the delivering team.

While Fedyanevsky is interviewed in front of the submarine, work on installing the rescue pod to the sail takes place in the background. 

The solemn ceremony for “Krasnoyarsk” was performed [in July 2021]. Unlike older attack submarines built in the late Soviet period, the Yasen-M class are multi-purpose vessels that can carry different weapons, including the most advanced new long-range Tsirkon hypersonic cruise missiles. 

There are ten silos for vertically launched cruise missiles. 

Despite Russia’s current economical meltdown following international sanctions, the Sevmash shipyard assures it will follow the orders of President Putin to “increase the pace renewal of the Navy, build modern surface and submarines of various designs and classes.” 

Katarzyna Zysk, a professor of international relations at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, says to the Barents Observer that new submarines are a top priority in Putin’s weapons modernization effort. 

She notes that both the Borei and Yasen play “central roles in Russia’s defence and deterrence.” 

“Moreover,” Zysk explains, “both are highly prestigious projects. There’s a special place in Putin’s heart for the navy.” 

The professor expects no immediate changes. 

“The construction program and financial resources assigned to it, may not be immediately affected by the economic meltdown that is ensuing. The mid- and long-term perspective are, however, far more uncertain,” Katarzyna Zysk says. 

Additional to “Krasnoyarsk”, the Sevmash yard has four more Yasen-class vessels at different stages of construction. The submarines will be based both with the Northern Fleet on the coast to the Barents Sea and with the Pacific Fleet in the Far East.

Professor Katarzyna Zysk with the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies says nuclear weapons play an important role in Putin’s military modernization programs.
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There are also four more Borei-class ballistic missile carriers to be floated out in Severodvinsk by 2029 when the class will be the backbone of Moscow’s sea-based nuclear deterrence. The Borei-class replaces the older Delta-IV and Delta-III [SSBNs] currently sailing deterrence patrols, including under the Arctic sea-ice.

Katarzyna Zysk says Russia’s big losses of conventional weapons in the Ukraine war could heighten the importance of nuclear weapons even more, including those deployed on submarines.

“Given the weakening of the Russian conventional forces, the role of nuclear weapons in Russian defence and deterrence may get elevated even further.”

Zysk elaborates: “Notably, to date, nuclear deterrence has proved highly effective for Russia in the ongoing confrontation: Putin’s threat of a major escalation to a nuclear level has been among key reasons for the restraint of the West in imposing a military cost and getting directly involved in the war in Ukraine.”

Ahead of the hand-over ceremony of the “Novosibirsk” [Yasen-M class] submarine [in December 2021], President Putin warned that Russia is prepared to take military measures to counter NATO’s unfriendly steps.

“In the event of continuation of the obviously aggressive line of our Western colleagues, we will take adequate retaliatory military-technical measures, and react toughly to unfriendly steps,” the president said in his speech to the Collegium of the Defense Ministry."

9 comments:

  1. Hello !
    For the 955A Borey-A schedule of delivery is here
    https://soumarsov.eu/Sous-marins/Post92/955A/955A.htm
    And for 885M Yasen-M here
    https://soumarsov.eu/Sous-marins/Post92/885M/885M.htm
    Regards

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks Anonymous [at Mar 17, 2022, 8:19:00 PM]

    So it appears the Borey-A class Generalissimo Suvorov will be commissioned in December 2022

    and Yasen-M class Krasnoyarsk will be commissioned "end of 2022"

    Surprisingly https://soumarsov.eu/Sous-marins/Post92/885M/885M.htm indicates a Yasen-M SSGN is much more expensive than a Borey-A SSBN with:

    "the price of Borey-A is 23.2 billion rubles compared to the price of 885M Yasen-M (47 billion rubles). In other words for a Yasen-M the navy can have two Borey-A! (as of May 21, 2021)."

    Cheers Pete

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Pete, recently there have been some interesting developments on the Brazilian SSN front:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/16/us-couple-nuclear-submarine-secrets-brazil-jonathan-diana-toebbe

    And also:

    https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/brazils-bolsonaro-sought-russian-help-for-nuclear-powered-sub-during-moscow-visit-report-articleshow.html

    I'd venture to say Brazil MAY have initially under-estimated the complexities of nuclear-powered submarine construction & also perhaps over-estimated the level of assistance that the French were ready to provide.

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thanks Gessler [at Mar 18, 2022, 7:43:00 AM]

    I've kept an eye on the Toebbe couples' near treasonous attempt to sell US nuclear sub secrets to Brazil.

    The Toebe's were obviousily ignorant that (not withstanding Bolsonaro's typically erratic shenanigans https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/brazils-bolsonaro-sought-russian-help-for-nuclear-powered-sub-during-moscow-visit-report-articleshow.html

    Brazil had overall good relations with the US meaning Brazil would not take the risk of receiving extremely sensitive US stolen goods. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazil%E2%80%93United_States_relations "Brazil is one of the most pro-American nations in the world."

    Also France, which is handling much of the Brazilain nuke sub integration, is a NATO ally of the US.

    Brazil would be aware that the political and weapons implications of a Brazilian nuke sub would be of intense US intelligence interest for at least 5 decades. This means, on the unlikelihood of Brazil taking up the Toebbe's offer, US intel would very rapidly know of any arrival of US nuclear tech into Brazil's nuke sub program.

    I agree with "I'd venture to say Brazil MAY have initially under-estimated the complexities of nuclear-powered submarine construction"

    However "perhaps over-estimated the level of assistance that the French were ready to provide" might be subject to change.
    - With the UK and US in the initial stages of offering AUKUS nuclear sub tech to Australia this removes the previous taboo against legal nuclear powers offering nuke sub tech to non-legal countries.

    There is also something else with I'll write as an article in a couple of days.

    Regards Pete

    ReplyDelete

  5. Interesting that in the design of both the Russian Yassen and US Virginia Classes, the advent of VLS systems in the latest generation of SSNs has effectively eliminated the need for a separate class of SSGN sub. Russia is not continuing the Oscar class SSGN and USA is using Virginia Block Vs to replace the Ohio SSGN. So the idea of a specialist SSGN without top of the line ASW capability seems to be gone.

    ReplyDelete
  6. hi Pete

    The idea that the Toebbes would approach France, as presented as obvious in the anglophone press ,for US designed N reactors details never makes sense as the philosophy, the concepts and the design are very far apart for at least 35 years

    The Brazilian sub deal , within their Prosub initiative,was negotited in 2008 with the Lula gov. called for the construction of a naval sub yard, naval facilities , the construction locally with significant brazilian content,of 4 enlarged Scorpene,( being partially executed sofar: 2 boats out of 4, the remaining 2 still in the yard) and technical assistance in the non N parts of their N sub programme
    The change of gov with Bolsonaro , (Poutine/Trump pal, at odd with the decadent, agri protectionist, EU and Macron ) make any further help unlikely

    This may change as Aukus open possibilitis for Fr N sub reactor supply especially in countries, large, rich, like Brazil which have a N industry on their own and could skip HEU ( or produce just enough for their deterrent)
    This is unlikely to be on the near horizon as far as Brazil is concerned.The size and the aspect of their first N sub does not show a very compact design..more russian style.. but who knows??
    However the "French factor" seems to open up, every where, the US arm export control posture by magic! After all the US might help

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi Pete

    Components of military budget are operations/maintenance, military personnel [4], R&D (including testing & evaluation) and so on [1]. Russia has already spent nearly 5% of military budget [2, 3], which adversely affects on its R&D. If Russia continues the Ukraine invasion another one month, its design bureau such as Rubin for diesel electric submarine might be seriously damaged. Illegal technology transfer from Russia to third country will be inevitable.

    [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States#By_title

    [2] According to Professor Takahashi, estimated operation cost during the Iraq War was from 100 to 150 million USD in daily bases. Russia had already spent 2400-3600 million USD (4-6% of military budget (61,713 million USD)) for 24-days operation.

    [3] https://jp.knoema.com/atlas/%E3%83%AD%E3%82%B7%E3%82%A2%E9%80%A3%E9%82%A6/%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E8%B2%BB%E7%8F%BE%E5%9C%A8%E3%81%AE%E7%B1%B3%E3%83%89%E3%83%AB FY 2020 military budget of Russia is 61,713 million USD

    [4] Numbers of Russian military personnel are 900,000 and average monthly payment is 900 USD. Then annual payment of Russian military personnel is 900000 x 900 x 12 month = 9720000000 USD =9720 million USD.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hi Anonymous [Mar 18, 2022, 9:10:00 PM]

    Yes. VLS represents a major investment in the missile aspect of a nuclear submarine - making for an SSGN. Or if ballistic missiles = SSBN.

    Regards Pete

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hi Anonymous [at Mar 18, 2022, 11:51:00 PM]

    I only intended to mean indirect French knowledge that would follow the Toebbes' direct approach to Brazil. More specifically meaning as the Toebbes approached Brazil, France doing the SN-BR integretion, would wonder why Brazil inexplicably had access to US nuclear submarine tech.

    France, using its declared DGSE backchannel in Washington, would then quietly advise its US opposite numbers of this Brazil-US nuke sub tech situation.

    Indeed. As the US is clearly on the path to offering nuke reactor tech to Australia some Brazilians would expect a similar offer from the US.

    Bolsonaro openly exploring nuke sub help from the Russians https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/brazils-bolsonaro-sought-russian-help-for-nuclear-powered-sub-during-moscow-visit-report-articleshow.html might represent Brazilian pressure on the US to assist Brazil with nuke tech.

    Regards Pete

    ReplyDelete

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