Thank You Bureaucratus Lex for his December 24, 2021 Christmas Story
Luckily Santa, riding his Submerged Sleigh, has imposed further Non Disclosure Agreements "NDAs" on his Elves and Reindeer prohibiting them from revealing a major secret. I (Pete) revceal it now.
Australia's current Prime Minister (Holy ScoMo Morrison's) AUKUS sub plan is initially a pre-2022 Election wedge tactic aimed at his political Opposition:
A. the Greens (totally anti-nuclear) + Labor Left (anti-US alliance)
versus
B. the Labor Centre Right (pro-US alliance and pro-submarine building jobs).
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PREDICTION FOR THE 2022 AUSTRALIAN ELECTION CAMPAIGN
Early in 2022 Morrison will summon his little Australian Reporters yet again. AUKUS sub aficianados will remember Morrison successfully selected Reporters to doorstop Macron into starting the "I know Morrison lied about submarines" play act.
This time Australia's current Prime Minister Morrison will instruct his Reporters to ask A and B "Are nuclear submarines for Australia a good idea?"
A and B will be impelled to disclose to their voter constituencies A's rejection and B's unconvincing acceptance of ScoMo's nuclear AUKUS Sub Surprise.
You saw this AUKUS Nuclear Sub Wedge Theory first at SubMatts on September 22, 2021.
Happy New Year
Pete
Hi Pete, glad you're posting again!
ReplyDeleteNot related to topic of this post (Australia's internal political equations), but a pretty significant development in the region:
India seems to have launched the 3rd nuclear boat (hull S4) of Arihant-class last month:
https://twitter.com/CSBiggers/status/1476048094580117509
I don't have a Janes' subscription so can't delve deeper into the details contained therein. However, commercial satellite imagery obtained by open-source intelligence (OSINT) contributors on Twitter seems to validate the notion that the 3rd & 4th boats of the class will indeed be bigger than the first two (also corroborating nuclear expert Hans M. Kristensen's extrapolation based on size of the submarine shelter deployed a few months ago, which I've talked about previously on here):
https://twitter.com/deadtrap777/status/1476204012353458177
Further details are still awaited but if the earlier literature about the "Arihant Stretch" class holds true, the 3rd & 4th boats could indeed have 8 x missile silos, for either 8 x long-range SLBMs (like K4 or K5), or up to 24 x medium-range SLBMs (like K15) with a triple-pack in each silo - or any combination thereof, depending on requirements.
In the late 2030s when these boats might take one an SSGN role, it could mean up to 40-48 land-attack cruise missiles on the "Stretch" boats like I previously speculated on here.
Thanks Gessler
ReplyDeleteThis info provides much needed confirmation of earlier reporting here https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2021/08/satellite-photos-ins-arihant-arighat.html scrolling 1/4 way down for S4 details (with satellite photo).
I'm cobbling together a post (out tomorrow) of what is known about S4.
In the direction of the future Virginia Block Vs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine#Block_V the 4 Arihants tending to a VLS SSGN roles while retaining considerable 6 torpedo tube (SSN like) capability (see right sidebar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arihant-class_submarine ) may well be true.
Regards
Pete
...indeed! A modification of this scale is unlikely to have been a simple plug-and-play affair considering, as far as I know, the fact that the Arihant-class wasn't originally designed to be "modular" like the upcoming Columbia-class or Dreadnought-class SSBNs with their Common Missile Compartment (CMC) structure.
ReplyDeleteArihant's modification in the form of adding another missile compartment (and MAYBE some changes to the Reactor as well, hard to say) is likely to have entailed a significant level of challenge for both the design & construction departments - the Centre of Gravity, Centre of Mass, Power requirements, all these would have changed to a considerable degree.
The reason why they saw it fit to take on the additional risk of this modification appears to be an executive-level decision taken by the former Government monitoring committee in 2012, out of a conclusion that 4 missile tubes simply don't construe an effective deterrence posture, if this India Today article by Sandeep Unnithan is to be believed (he's usually a good source):
https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/the-big-story/story/20171218-india-ballistic-missile-submarine-k-6-submarine-launched-drdo-1102085-2017-12-10
Scroll down to the paragraph below the picture of the shore-based Reactor for the relevant part.
Meanwhile, Mr. H.I. Sutton has again come out with an article (with accompanying artwork comparing Arihant & Arihant Stretch), of possible interest to your upcoming post:
http://www.hisutton.com/Indian-Navy-S4-SSBN.html