October 19, 2021

Taiwan 2: Patriotic Conflict for China's Xi

China is building a sizable regional military-naval capability that can perhaps dominate the East Asian Region.  

In contrast the US, with diluted global strategic capabilities covering extra-regional Europe, the Americas and Middle East may not have enough usable conventional forces to beat/deter  China. The US's vast NUCLEAR superiority over China is unusable in a regional war.  


Absorbing Taiwan is a tailor-made "Patriotic" conflict for Xi to distract ordinary Chinese from China's increasing economic and social problems. These problems threaten the Social Contract that justifies continued CCP rule. 

4 comments:

  1. Anonymous10/22/2021 4:59 PM

    Pete, I agree with you. China is trying to achieve nuclear deterrence parity with the U.S. Witness the (not exactly) Sputnik moment with FOBS. No nuclear, the balance of conventional forces matters and it favors China given the proximity to the theatre. As we approach 20149, it gets dicier.
    KQN

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  2. Pete10/22/2021 5:20 PM

    Hi agin KQN

    Here's an article about China's Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) launch believed to have occured in August 2021 https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/research/a37992193/china-nuclear-space-weapon/

    Yes conventional weapons are far more usable than nuclear - for on average Patriotic (politico-military) Conflict.

    Are yes 2049, ie. 100 years since Mao created the PRC, may be an action packed Peoples' Patriotic Punch Up.

    Pete

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  3. Anonymous10/23/2021 1:05 PM

    Much has been said about President Xi wanting to seize Taiwan by force if necessary. There is no doubt about intention. The capability to deliver is improving by the day.

    The remaining question is whether President Xi is crazy, or suicidal enough to risk it. It will come at tremendous cost. I am not even talking about the political or economic fallout. I am referring to the direct cost such as half of its air force and navy potentially destroyed and probably 250,000 PLA lives with it. In the age of precision guided weapons and Taiwan's topographical advantage and you relate that to the Kosovo air campaign and Falkland sea campaign, I don't think it will end well for China - with or without Allied intervention.

    My 2 cents.


    Brumby

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  4. Pete10/23/2021 5:20 PM

    But Brumby

    You gotta have confidence in progress!

    Pete

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