One of geo-strategy's great unpredictables is what would Russia do if China launched a shooting war to sieze Taiwan.
To start off this multi-article topic Anonymous has penned the following:
Here is a link https://www.newsweek.com/russia-taiwan-part-china-partners-align-around-world-1638170 to Russia siding with China over Taiwan.
The Newsweek article states in part: "Russia Says Taiwan is Part of China as Two Powers Further Align Against U.S. Russia has unambiguously stated its position that the self-ruling island of Taiwan is a part of the mainland-based People's Republic of China, as strategic partners Moscow and Beijing seek to further align their positions regarding geopolitical issues across the globe..."
Anonymous's Observations and Questions:
I think this indicates that in approaching the conflict, Russia is siding with China, but some things are not clear:
1. How active will Russia’s participation be?
2. How will the non-democratic democratic world likely chose sides?
3. What will be the naval impact?
Some possible things to watch for:
A. Countries nominally with the democracies may be intimidated into neutrality or declaring for China.
B. Countries friendly to China may be decides that Chinese supremacy is not in their interest.
Some possible indications:
1a. Vietnam probably DOES NOT WANT Chinese domination. It has not improved in 2000 years.
2a. Philippine President Duterte may prefer China for regime insurance, but Philippine public may choose for itself. The port and former US naval base of Subic Bay is a big prize.
3a. Russian support may free China from some dependency on South China Sea shipping, by reducing vulnerability to blockade.
If democracies want to prevent China from attacking, deterrence MUST be credible. What's the effect of the big sorting out?
PETE COMMENT
I find the questions above unpredictable due to the wide range of economic, political and military/naval scenarios of any attempted Chinese takeover of Taiwan.
I agree that if the US and its allies threw up a blockade of hydrocarbon (oil, gas and coal) shipments by sea to China then Russia may step up energy supplies by land to China.
This is chiefly by greater Russian use of the overland oil and gas pipelines Russia has already built to supply China.
Hi Pete,
ReplyDeleteBy coincidence, I watched a documentary on how Beijing's attempt to ban or raise tariffs on Aussie goods has either failed to hurt Aussie economically, or has, in fact, hurt China. The power shortage issue is one. Apparantly Australia's coal is high quality and cheap, while Chinese domestically mined coal is low quality and expensive, and there are different types of generators which burn high quality vs low quality coal. With the dirth of Aussie coal, the power companies have to buy expensive coal, which doesn't burn very well, and CCP laws keep electricity prices low, so burning more coal means making more and more loss. Hence the power shortages since the station owners can't afford the turn the power plants on.
Australia has found other markets, like India, PAkistan and Saudi Arabia. But it seems China has been buying Aussie coal from them, thus pays more for Aussie coal.
And Australia supplies a substantial fraction of China's iron needs. The next largest supplier is well behind us.
So Australia would be able to hurt China by stopping our mineral and agricultural exports to China. And if the US and others blockades oil, I think China would be in for a world of short term hurt, and even into the medium term.
I don't think LNG would be able to compensate for the fact that nearly 70% of their energy needs comes from coal fired plants, not LNG.
Typed a bit much this time :)
Cheers,
Andrew
Hi Andrew
ReplyDeleteIts encouraging China's attempted trade coercion against Australia has had so many downsides (especially regarding coal) for China.
Your observation
"Australia has found other markets, like India, PAkistan and Saudi Arabia. But it seems China has been buying Aussie coal from them, thus pays more for Aussie coal."
is especially significant.
Another observation ie:
"So Australia would be able to hurt China by stopping our mineral and agricultural exports to China. And if the US and others blockades oil, I think China would be in for a world of short term hurt, and even into the medium term."
may be a worry.
One recalls impending energy shortages for Japan in 1941 leading to Pearl Harbour and invasions south. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_World_War_II#Japan's_seizure_of_resources_and_markets
If similar shortages were aimed at China now might China be drawn closer to Russia and to the Russian leaning "stans"?
Pete
Hi Pete,
ReplyDeleteRegarding the reason for Japan's attack, I completely forgot about that. Might have to give them some wriggle room, or else they will not have any other options except war.
Andrew
Chip embargo is the 21st-century embargo equivalent to oil embargo in the years leading to 1941.
ReplyDeleteKQN
If I am Russia, I would get real worried about Siberia, not Taiwan. Vast land, ample resources, few people. It's the contrary next door, guess who is it?
ReplyDeleteKQN
Hi KQN [your Oct 23, 2021, 3:23:00 AM]
ReplyDeleteYes I'd say normally racist and nationalistic Russia realises it is the junior partner in any alliance of interests with China AND the gap is widening.
Hence Russia is supplying China with energy and weapons while holding joint naval exercises as ways to keep China friendly.
Pete