The misadventures of AUKUS robot AlboGov never cease. I publish on subs, other naval,
nuclear weapons & broad political issues. Aussie sub changes are glacial: talk rather than actual new subs. The 1st Collins LOTE may secretly concern the US Combat System & be ready 2029. Trump may decide to cancel the AUKUS Virginia offer due to USN advice it needs all operational SSNs right through to the 2040s. My colleagues Shawn C and Gessler are excellent writers. Pete.
March 24, 2021
Australian Gov & Naval Group Agree 60% Submarine Local Content
According to Norwegian Teknisk Ukeblad, the layout of the contract for the Norwegian 212CD-submarines were finally agreed on on the night to the 23rd of March. The contract has to be approved by the German parliament before it can be signed. The article says that TKMS during the process came with three offers, unsure if the agreed contract is the third or a fourth offer. According to the deal, the German Navy will receive the third and the sixth submarine in order to secure an identical configuration.
https://www.tu.no/artikler/har-forhandlet-i-arevis-na-har-norge-bestilt-ubater-for-45-milliarder-kroner/508387 (in Norwegian)
So why ask a Greek battery firm to also put in bids when Australia has one of the worlds best in PMB Defence. While I am sure PMB will get the job (helps with the 60% for a start) & already supply RAN for Collins (amongst others), it’s wasting time & money (both the European supplier & Naval Group).. Naval Group have been building submarines for many decades. They know if someone is taking advantage. You can’t meet the 60% if you keep going back to your European supply chain.
Contract amount including maintenance and upgrading cost for four 212CDs is 6.9 billion AUD. Equivalent cost for four 29SS submarines is estimated to be 6.4 billion AUD [1].
[1] Considering a 30 years-operation, estimation is based on “Summary of analysis and evaluation results of acquisition program (29SS submarine)” reported by Japan MoD.
Thanks for drawing https://www.tu.no/artikler/har-forhandlet-i-arevis-na-har-norge-bestilt-ubater-for-45-milliarder-kroner/508387 to my attention.
Norwegian article body trans "With a total cost framework of NOK 45 billion [US$5.25 Billion], the purchase of [4 x Type 212CD] new submarines to replace the Ula class is among the largest defense investments Norway has ever made, only beaten by new [F-35A] fighter jets.
It has been over four years since it became clear that Norway will procure submarines jointly with Germany, and the contract negotiations have been going on for about 2.5 years - largely in silence - until the parties have now reached an agreement with the German shipyard. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (tkMS),..."
If there was actual signing of the contract I would have written an article about it.
Thanks for converting the NOK 45 billion into 6.9 billion AUD.T
and for "Equivalent cost for four 29SS [Japanese Taigei-class] submarines is estimated to be 6.4 billion AUD...[for] 30 years-operation, estimation is based on “Summary of analysis and evaluation results of acquisition program (29SS submarine)” reported by Japan MoD."
Norway probably did not consider buying Japanese Taigei because: Norway wanted a sub with a much smaller crew (27 men for each 212), which desirably was bought from a fellow NATO country (eg. Germany). Norway likely wanted AIP (as in 212s) and may have been nervous about buying a LIB sub (like the Taigei).
Noting four 29SS [Japanese Taigei-class] submarines estimated at AU$6.4 billion = AU$1.6 Billion a sub. If only Australia had bour 12 Taigeis with 30 years-operation for just AU19.2 Billion total.
BUT such low cost Japanese efficiency was not what the Australian Government was looking for. Instead Australia accepted DCNS/NG's "bid" of about AU$40 Billion for 12 high-risk-not-yet-designed-or-built-submarines (bought too early and now costing more like AU$80 Billion)
The Federal Australian Government's main goal being a slow very expensive build in South Australia to win votes/seats in the 2016 Election and now in the coming 2021/22 Election.
I don’t consider my Greek battery question as answered & yes, both NG & Australian government should be embarrassed. As a taxpayer, I want to know why they are wasting my money. These submarines are expensive enough already & behind enough already without wasting time & money on things that won’t happen. If the Greek company gets the deal, the media will have a field day & the government will loose SA seats. It’s not fair on the Greek company & wastes time & money & we will be the ones that ultimately foot the bill.
Battery systems are just a more obvious example of the problem.
Regarding the (probably) PMB Defence lead-acid batteries vs competition from Greeks bearing batteries.
Where you "want to know why they are wasting my money." Risk of batteries from Greece shows how, in only a month the previously steady (we handled the Covid crisis like champions) Morrison Goverment, can go off the rails (brutal sex/rapes in Aus and state Parliaments etc)
AND
Only a month ago Defence Minister Linda Reynold was a steady hand - but now sadly in hospital/stress leave. ______________
All we of Aus, US (combat system for Attack class) and France-NG (everything else in Attacks) need to remember that the whole Future Submarine Selection Process in 2016 Right Through to Cost Issues Now
was/is all about
Maximising the amount of Federal money going to Osborne Shipyard, South Australia, the slower-more drawn out the project the better (and Fed money to the rest of the 60% Australian content in PMB and other parts factories elsewhere)
The ultimate aim of AU$Billions drip fed to South Australia (and to Aus component makers elsewhere) being:
to win votes
to keep Senatorial spots and Electoral seats (called Districts in the US)
in South Australia and other marginal Aus seats that build sub components
for the Liberal Government, Nationals and even for the (eg. Rex Patrick) cross benches
but Definitely not to surrender seats to LABOR ( = ALP Federal Opposition Party)
Because the Morrison Government is only one seat ahead - if Morrison loses one seat he may lose Government.
The Federal Election needs to occur https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_election#Election_date
From "Saturday 7 August 2021" up until "Saturday 21 May 2022" Inclusive.
SPLASHING FEDERAL MONEY AROUND
IS THE NAME OF THE MAIN GAME
A faster cheaper, submarine building program, to save taxpayers' money
According to Norwegian Teknisk Ukeblad, the layout of the contract for the Norwegian 212CD-submarines were finally agreed on on the night to the 23rd of March.
ReplyDeleteThe contract has to be approved by the German parliament before it can be signed.
The article says that TKMS during the process came with three offers, unsure if the agreed contract is the third or a fourth offer.
According to the deal, the German Navy will receive the third and the sixth submarine in order to secure an identical configuration.
https://www.tu.no/artikler/har-forhandlet-i-arevis-na-har-norge-bestilt-ubater-for-45-milliarder-kroner/508387 (in Norwegian)
/C
Hi Pete,
ReplyDeleteThere is an agreement about the 212CD now but no signing yet as there is a need for the German Parliament to review and approval it first.
/Kjell
So why ask a Greek battery firm to also put in bids when Australia has one of the worlds best in PMB Defence. While I am sure PMB will get the job (helps with the 60% for a start) & already supply RAN for Collins (amongst others), it’s wasting time & money (both the European supplier & Naval Group).. Naval Group have been building submarines for many decades. They know if someone is taking advantage. You can’t meet the 60% if you keep going back to your European supply chain.
ReplyDeleteHi Pete
ReplyDeleteContract amount including maintenance and upgrading cost for four 212CDs is 6.9 billion AUD. Equivalent cost for four 29SS submarines is estimated to be 6.4 billion AUD [1].
[1] Considering a 30 years-operation, estimation is based on “Summary of analysis and evaluation results of acquisition program (29SS submarine)” reported by Japan MoD.
Regards
Hi /C and /Kjell [your Mar 24, 2021 comments]
ReplyDeleteThanks for drawing https://www.tu.no/artikler/har-forhandlet-i-arevis-na-har-norge-bestilt-ubater-for-45-milliarder-kroner/508387 to my attention.
Norwegian article body trans "With a total cost framework of NOK 45 billion [US$5.25 Billion], the purchase of [4 x Type 212CD] new submarines to replace the Ula class is among the largest defense investments Norway has ever made, only beaten by new [F-35A] fighter jets.
It has been over four years since it became clear that Norway will procure submarines jointly with Germany, and the contract negotiations have been going on for about 2.5 years - largely in silence - until the parties have now reached an agreement with the German shipyard. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (tkMS),..."
If there was actual signing of the contract I would have written an article about it.
Regards
Pete
Hi Anonymous [at Mar 24, 2021, 7:36:00 PM]
ReplyDeleteYou've asked and answered your own question regarding a less known issue "So why ask a Greek battery firm..."
Is your "question" meant to embarrass Aus or NG from a competitor (TKMS or Turkish?) standpoint?
Beware of Greeks bearing batteries?
Regards
Hi Anonymous [at Mar 25, 2021, 9:39:00 AM]
ReplyDeleteThanks for converting the NOK 45 billion into 6.9 billion AUD.T
and for "Equivalent cost for four 29SS [Japanese Taigei-class] submarines is estimated to be 6.4 billion AUD...[for] 30 years-operation, estimation is based on “Summary of analysis and evaluation results of acquisition program (29SS submarine)” reported by Japan MoD."
Norway probably did not consider buying Japanese Taigei because: Norway wanted a sub with a much smaller crew (27 men for each 212), which desirably was bought from a fellow NATO country (eg. Germany). Norway likely wanted AIP (as in 212s) and may have been nervous about buying a LIB sub (like the Taigei).
Noting four 29SS [Japanese Taigei-class] submarines estimated at AU$6.4 billion = AU$1.6 Billion a sub. If only Australia had bour 12 Taigeis with 30 years-operation for just AU19.2 Billion total.
BUT such low cost Japanese efficiency was not what the Australian Government was looking for. Instead Australia accepted DCNS/NG's "bid" of about AU$40 Billion for 12 high-risk-not-yet-designed-or-built-submarines (bought too early and now costing more like AU$80 Billion)
The Federal Australian Government's main goal being a slow very expensive build in South Australia to win votes/seats in the 2016 Election and now in the coming 2021/22 Election.
Regards
Pete
Regards
Pete
Pete
ReplyDeleteI don’t consider my Greek battery question as answered & yes, both NG & Australian government should be embarrassed. As a taxpayer, I want to know why they are wasting my money. These submarines are expensive enough already & behind enough already without wasting time & money on things that won’t happen. If the Greek company gets the deal, the media will have a field day & the government will loose SA seats. It’s not fair on the Greek company & wastes time & money & we will be the ones that ultimately foot the bill.
Battery systems are just a more obvious example of the problem.
THE ANSWER MAY SHOCK!!
ReplyDeleteHi Anonymous [at Mar 27, 2021, 5:08:00 PM]
Regarding the (probably) PMB Defence lead-acid batteries vs competition from Greeks bearing batteries.
Where you "want to know why they are wasting my money." Risk of batteries from Greece shows how, in only a month the previously steady (we handled the Covid crisis like champions) Morrison Goverment, can go off the rails (brutal sex/rapes in Aus and state Parliaments etc)
AND
Only a month ago Defence Minister Linda Reynold was a steady hand - but now sadly in hospital/stress leave.
______________
All we of Aus, US (combat system for Attack class) and France-NG (everything else in Attacks) need to remember that the whole Future Submarine Selection Process in 2016 Right Through to Cost Issues Now
was/is all about
Maximising the amount of Federal money going to Osborne Shipyard, South Australia, the slower-more drawn out the project the better (and Fed money to the rest of the 60% Australian content in PMB and other parts factories elsewhere)
The ultimate aim of AU$Billions drip fed to South Australia (and to Aus component makers elsewhere) being:
to win votes
to keep Senatorial spots and Electoral seats (called Districts in the US)
in South Australia and other marginal Aus seats that build sub components
for the Liberal Government, Nationals and even for the (eg. Rex Patrick) cross benches
but Definitely not to surrender seats to LABOR ( = ALP Federal Opposition Party)
Because the Morrison Government is only one seat ahead - if Morrison loses one seat he may lose Government.
The Federal Election needs to occur https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_election#Election_date
From "Saturday 7 August 2021" up until "Saturday 21 May 2022" Inclusive.
SPLASHING FEDERAL MONEY AROUND
IS THE NAME OF THE MAIN GAME
A faster cheaper, submarine building program, to save taxpayers' money
ISN'T.
Gloire à ScoMO!