After Sweden made the grave error of selling its submarine maker
(Kockums) to the Germans
1999-2014 the Germans hobbled Kockums submarine export-ability. This was particularly evident in Germany's sale of Type 218 Invincible class subs to Singapore. Singapore hitherto being a regular buyer of Swedish submarines (Challengers and then Archers).
Even since Sweden's Saab bought
Kockums back in 2014 Sweden has been desperately trying to renew exports - to
such markets as Australia, Poland and the Netherlands by feeding news/sales updates
like.
No Swedish luck so far, although a sale of 2 secondhand submarines to Poland may be in the offing. The Germans,
Russians, South Koreans, Chinese and French have maintained a lead in conventional
submarine sales, but Sweden keeps on trying.
Pete
Hi Pete,
ReplyDeleteAnd you will have Saab's Underwater Technology Virtual Booth. Opens May 26!
https://twitter.com/Saab/status/1262737745295708160
/Kjell
Many competing export designs in one group does not make too much sense.
ReplyDeleteHowever, combining the German and Swedish engineering and production strengths could have led to export domination.
In the end its more like
Swedes: two sad eyes
Germans: one sad & one happy eye
French: two happy eyes
Submarine coorporation seems particularly hard as national interest is high. Success stories are German Italian coorporation. Swedish German and French Spanish just left Navantia and Kockums behind.
Today they are both aggressive and unsuccessful. None of them having delivered a submarine in ages...
Kockums was barred by TKMS from participating in the Singapore bid, so it was either three DCN Scorpene class or two TKMS Type-218.
ReplyDeleteScorpene was already in service with the Royal Malaysian Navy, and I don’t think you could call their early experience to have been good. Coupled with Singapore’s improved defense relations with Germany (Leo2 purchase n training in Germany) and deep defense ties with Israel (TKMS produce the Dolphin-class), the Type-218 emerged as a ‘no-brainer’ for Singapore to adopt. And because operating two different logistic chains for two different national submarine types just doesn’t make sense, it was pretty clear that Singapore would eventually operate a small fleet of Type-218SG exclusively, so once all four Invincible-class boats are delivered, the Archer-class will probably be be retired, after twenty years of service.
To say this didn’t have seismic repercussions with TKMS-Kockums is putting it mildly (and reported extensively by Pete), but from the Swedish government perspective, Singapore had a submarine project office in Sweden for over a decade, had bought seven second-hand submarines and still regularly buys Swedish defense material (the recent Independence-class LMV, for example, is a joint design with Saab-Kockums) and I’m sure they were expecting Singapore to take part in the A26 program and help fund development. In fact TKMS-Kockums was awarded the project in 2010, but there wasn’t even a detailed design in 2012, when the first hull was supposed to be laid. The RSN choose the Type-218 in 2013.
If TKMS-Kockums had started the A26 project as promised in 2012 it’s very conceivable that the RSN would have ordered this boat, and that would come with a big cash infusion to the Swedish defense industry (about US3 billion will be spent on the Type-218). As it happened, the first Type-218SG, the RSS Invincible, is now holding dive trials in mid-2020, while the first a26 Belkinge Class is half constructed.
Hi /Kjell [May 20, 2020 at 6:32 PM]
ReplyDeleteSaab's Underwater Technology Virtual Booth opening May 26, 2020
https://twitter.com/Saab/status/1262737745295708160
Groovy :)
Pete
Hi Anonymous
ReplyDeleteYour May 21, 2020 at 3:10 AM post is touching and poetic.
What might have been if bi-national submarine alliances had worked well together.
Regards
Pete
Hi Shawn C [at May 21, 2020 at 7:21 PM]
ReplyDeleteYes "Kockums was barred by TKMS from participating in the Singapore bid." I wonder if, between 2009-2014, TKMS in other ways contributed to the Australian Government decision NOT to include Kockums in the final SEA 1000 shortlist of 3!
Another reason Singapore wouldn't have chosen the Scorpene was because DCNS/Naval Group's relatively loud/high temperature MESMA (first generation) AIP was not in the same league as TKMS' second generation AIP of the fuel cell type (now in the Type 218).
Also Malaysia was one of Singapore's strategic competitors. Malaysia would have a large database of Scorpene acoustic profiles/records and other specs which would provide Malaysia just too much detection intelligence about any future Singaporean Scorpene.
A Malaysian Scorpene migt als be mistaken for a nearby Singaporean Scorpene (and vice versa) with potentially dangerous results.
And as you say Singapore was buying up German Leopard 2 tanks and Singaporeans officer and engineers might have been/were invited aboard/trained on Israeli Type 209/214 like Dolphin subs.
The existence of Israeli nuclear tipped cruise (or small ballistic) missiles on Dolphins might also raise interesting possibilities about Singapore's longterm nuclear deterrent choices.
Indeed https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invincible-class_submarine#Orders mentions "on 16 May 2017, Singapore defence minister Ng Eng Hen announced an order of 2 more Type 218SG submarines for a total of 4. The first 2 will be delivered in 2021 and 2022, while the remaining 2 will be delivered from 2024."
With the 2 Archers being originally launched as Sweden's HMS Hälsingland and HMS Västergötland in 1986 and 1987 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archer-class_submarine they will be ripe for replacement by the mid 2020s.
Cheers
Pete
Hi Pete
ReplyDeleteIf Saab wins the submarine races in Netherlands and Poland and TKMS is sold, it is karma. The karm may be coming true.
Regards
Hi Pete,
ReplyDeleteI don't think any country bought the DCNS MEMSA AIP package.
Frankly speaking - Malaysia is too much of a close economic partner with Singapore and I don't think they are seen as strategic competitors, especially in terms of defense. The last decade has widened the gulf between the military capabilities of the two, and niggling border issues aside, Malaysia benefits from a neighbour who is willing to help them in terms of data fusion and ISR, particularly around the Malacca Straits and parts of the SES.
That is not to say that Singapore doesn't ignore any Malaysian 'posturing'. There's plenty of stories by Singaporean National Servicemen of some of the 'mobilization exercises' they've gone through.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/saf-holds-largest-mobilisation-exercise-since-1985-with-8000-troops-700-vehicles
Singapore is a signatory of the NPT and does not have a nuclear industry - also no place to put a nuclear plant with a 30km safety zone.
It's a certainty that Singaporean and Israeli submariners have 'bumped into' each other during the construction of their respective submarines at TKMS, but what systems are shared is of course conjecture at this time, and I don't think the Israelis would let sailors of other nations into their super-secret subs. More likely the Singaporean crewmen trained on Type 212 boats.
We know from launch images of the RSS Invincible that while the sub has a family resemblance to the Dolphin II, the sail is located centrally, there are four X- rudders instead of the seven (four rudders and three fins) on the Dolphin II, and a broader keel that runs almost the whole length of the submarine.
What wasn't shown in the images, was the Invincible's eight torpedo tubes, and it may be that, like the Type 212, they have an asymmetrical torpedo tube layout, and could even be a mix of 533mm and 650mm tubes, which would make a lot of sense for special forces and UUV use, amongst other things.
Did TKMS torpedo Kockum with Australia and Singapore? The Swedes think so.
https://www.thelocal.de/20131015/52407
Ultimately Kockums was removed from the SEA 1000 project because "they hadn't built a submarine in twenty years". In a What If scenario - TKMS-Kockums get awarded the A26 project in 2010, and in 2012, with some delays, cuts steel on the first boat. In 2013 Singapore signs in for a customised version, so Kockums now has a 4 submarine order book. This keeps them in the SEA 1000 downselect.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/sweden-barred-australia-sub-program-105608893.html
Hi Anonymous [at May 23, 2020 at 5:14 PM]
ReplyDeleteYes there are mixed signals for TKMS's future eg. an April 17, 2020 report https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thyssenkrupp-marinesystems-talks/thyssenkrupp-in-talks-with-local-rivals-about-possible-warship-unit-merger-idUSKBN21Z18I
"FRANKFURT (Reuters) - German conglomerate Thyssenkrupp (TKAG.DE) is in talks about possibly merging its subsidiary ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) with a domestic rival to create a national champion."
AND it must be remembered TKMS has a full order book:
4 x Type 212CDs for Norway
1 x Type 209 for Egypt to go
assisting Italy with 212NFS
helping Turkey build Type 214s
probably helping S Korea build KSS IIIs
4 x Type 218s for Singapore
3 x "Dakar"/Dolpin III class for Israel
Cheers
Pete
Hi Pete,
ReplyDeleteTKMS hasn't signed the 212CD orders yet but has its third try of it, unfortunately the Norwegian link is now behind a paywall but try this instead.
You did forget the 2 German subs.
/Kjell
Hi Shawn C [at May 24, 2020 at 2:51 AM]
ReplyDeleteRe "I don't think any country bought the DCNS MEMSA AIP package." Pakistan was the only buyer of MESMA AIP, using this technology in its 3 Agosta-90Bs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agosta-class_submarine#Variants
- PNS HAMZA "is the first submarine that has been fitted with MESMA...AIP system" https://web.archive.org/web/20120511051334/http://www.paknavy.gov.pk/agosta90b.htm.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PNS_Khalid was retrofitted with MESMA AIP in 2011
- as was https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PNS_Saad same year
All your other comments - at at May 24, 2020 at 2:51 AM - are really good so I'll use them as an article tomorrow.
Cheers
Pete
Hi Pete,
ReplyDeleteApologies, you are correct about the PN Agosta 90b boats. I checked up on Scorpene boats (specifically Indian, Brazilian and Malaysian boats), as you mentioned the Malaysian Navy's boats are AIP equipped. They aren't.
You might be interested that the RSN trains in the Andamans with the IN:
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/a-rare-look-at-rsn-submarine-training-crew-can-now-take-out-adversary-within-minutes
The Chief Trainer of Submarine Forces RSN, is a Perisher graduate:
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/why-whiskey-was-the-last-thing-on-rsn-submarine-commanders-mind-during-gruelling-perisher
Checked up on the Polish A17 story, and I think there's a lot of unsubstantiated conjecture in the article, specifically with Sweden 'buying back' the Archer class submarines in 2023.
https://www.defence24.com/is-sweden-willing-to-maintain-its-submarines-and-their-potential
The RSN currently operates two Challenger class and two Archer class subs. The Challenger boats are over fifty years old and in RSN commission for twenty years, so their replacement by the first pair of Invincibles is urgent. With the Archers its a little more complicated - they were extensively modernised over five years and have been in service for about 9 years, which means they should be able to remain in RSN commission till 2030 without any major life-extensions needed.
While most commentators see the RSN's intent is to replace the Archer's with the second pair of Invincibles, this won't happen till the boats are delivered in 2024-2025 (not 2023). The RSN may also be planning to expand its submarine forces to six submarines, and keep the Archers in commission while ordering a third pair of Type 218SG boats for delivery later in the decade.
Thanks /Kjell [at May 25, 2020 at 4:15 PM]
ReplyDeleteFor the info and https://militaryleak.com/2020/04/30/norway-starts-negotiations-with-tkms-for-type-212cd-submarines/
On listing TKMS's "full order book" to build submarines - I was thinking of foreign customers.
So indeed I did not list the 2 x Type 212CDs TKMS will be building for the "home" German Navy.
Cheers
Pete
Hi Pete
ReplyDeleteMy biggest doubt about 212CDs of German Navy is their deployment. The deployment of 212As in the Batic Sea seems to be dysfunctional beacuse of budget and crew shortage. How can German Navy deploy 212CDs in the other sea area? Or, how does it persuade politicians and tax payer?
Regards
Hi Pete,
ReplyDeleteSome Polish update on possibly bridging buy of Swedish Södermanland class submarine/s
/Kjell
Hi /Kjell
ReplyDeleteThanks for the Defence24 Polish article ""Swedish FMS [Forein Military Sales]" and a bridging submarine for the Polish Navy"
of June 2, 2020, at https://www.defence24.pl/szwedzki-fms-a-pomostowy-okret-podwodny-dla-mw-rp
Right clicking the mouse allows "Translate to English"
The article is long and reveals the complexity of issues if Poland buys or leases one or both of the Södermanland class (A17) submarines
- until new submarines (like the A26s) are ordered and available.
As with mid-life upgrading Australia's Collins class and building the Attack class nothing is easy, cheap or quick in buying complex weapon system - with submarines being the most complex and expensive
- with the exception of stealth jet programs and nuclear powered aircraft carriers.
Pete