PETE COMMENT
Following on from the August 14, 2019 article on Russia's failed liquid rocket fuel and nuclear powered cruise missile booster+engine test at Nyonoksa. The missile's Russian designations include
Burevestnik 9M730 and "Petrel". NATO reporting names are SSC-X-9 and Skyfall. I'll call it simply "Skyfall".
Russia has always culturally been secretive, especially about its latest weapon systems. As an authoritarian country (Tsar-Communist-Putin) Russia does not need to inform its citizen-taxpayers much about its latest expensive missile or submarine disasters. Disaster details are only drip fed once details have been discovered by the Western press/internet, which ordinary Russians now have access to.
Most Russian research on Skyfall is taking place at Sarov a closed city of around 100,000 "inmates" east of Moscow, but still in European Russia. A "closed city" since 1946 because Sarov is a center of Russian nuclear weapon and propulsion research as well as missile research (a bit like Los Alamos, Oak Ridge, Sandia and Huntsville all rolled into one).
With that in mind the article below looks too good to be true concerning its details of Russia's Skyfall technology and strategy. So I'm treating the article below as mainly (Russian derived word) "disinformation". This includes the article implying the Skyfall program is more advanced than is actually the case. Given the US' 7 years to cancellation Project Pluto it is highly unlikely Russia could field a Skyfall prototype in under 10 years.
Also the article's description of Skyfall as "subsonic" flies in the face of its rumoured hypersonic ramjet nature. Skyfall requires hypersonic speed to keep it aloft on its nuclear engine stage and make Skyfall a viable short time to target, global strike weapon.
I have therefore bolded and redded suspicious parts, with some [..] brackets for extra comments.
ARTICLE
/Kjell has kindly located from Russian website New Defence Order Strategy (see About us) the following Russian language article, of August 15, 2019 at https://dfnc.ru/katalog-vooruzhenij/nazemnye-raketnye-kompleksy/9m730-burevestnik/ . Pete has now translated it into English (there being no New Defence Order Strategy article on Skyfall in English).
"Nuclear-powered strategic cruise missile
[Skyfall] was supposedly being created by the Novator Design Bureau (Yekaterinburg [Russia's 4th largest city, which is east of the Urals]) [see NPO Novator] together with one of the [Russian Atomic] Rosatom research centers. The creation of a rocket with an air-jet [turbofan? ramjet? or what?] engine with a nuclear power plant became possible as a result of successful work to create a new generation small-sized nuclear reactor.
“At the end of 2017, a successful launch of a rocket with a nuclear power plant took place at the Central [Novaya Zemlya?] training ground of the Russian Federation. During the flight, the power plant reached its predetermined power and provided the necessary level of thrust. The flight tests, coupled with ground tests, allow us to move on to creating a strategic nuclear weapon complex with nuclear power plant "(from a speech by V.V. Putin before the Federal Assembly, 03/01/2018).
Work on Skyfall in a training ground assembly and test building (http://mil.ru) [a pointy nose for a merely
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Preparation of Skyfall components for testing in the assembly and testing building of the test site (http://mil.ru)
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Following on from the August 14, 2019 article on Russia's failed liquid rocket fuel and nuclear powered cruise missile booster+engine test at Nyonoksa. The missile's Russian designations include
Burevestnik 9M730 and "Petrel". NATO reporting names are SSC-X-9 and Skyfall. I'll call it simply "Skyfall".
Russia has always culturally been secretive, especially about its latest weapon systems. As an authoritarian country (Tsar-Communist-Putin) Russia does not need to inform its citizen-taxpayers much about its latest expensive missile or submarine disasters. Disaster details are only drip fed once details have been discovered by the Western press/internet, which ordinary Russians now have access to.
Most Russian research on Skyfall is taking place at Sarov a closed city of around 100,000 "inmates" east of Moscow, but still in European Russia. A "closed city" since 1946 because Sarov is a center of Russian nuclear weapon and propulsion research as well as missile research (a bit like Los Alamos, Oak Ridge, Sandia and Huntsville all rolled into one).
With that in mind the article below looks too good to be true concerning its details of Russia's Skyfall technology and strategy. So I'm treating the article below as mainly (Russian derived word) "disinformation". This includes the article implying the Skyfall program is more advanced than is actually the case. Given the US' 7 years to cancellation Project Pluto it is highly unlikely Russia could field a Skyfall prototype in under 10 years.
Also the article's description of Skyfall as "subsonic" flies in the face of its rumoured hypersonic ramjet nature. Skyfall requires hypersonic speed to keep it aloft on its nuclear engine stage and make Skyfall a viable short time to target, global strike weapon.
I have therefore bolded and redded suspicious parts, with some [..] brackets for extra comments.
ARTICLE
/Kjell has kindly located from Russian website New Defence Order Strategy (see About us) the following Russian language article, of August 15, 2019 at https://dfnc.ru/katalog-vooruzhenij/nazemnye-raketnye-kompleksy/9m730-burevestnik/ . Pete has now translated it into English (there being no New Defence Order Strategy article on Skyfall in English).
"Nuclear-powered strategic cruise missile
[Skyfall] was supposedly being created by the Novator Design Bureau (Yekaterinburg [Russia's 4th largest city, which is east of the Urals]) [see NPO Novator] together with one of the [Russian Atomic] Rosatom research centers. The creation of a rocket with an air-jet [turbofan? ramjet? or what?] engine with a nuclear power plant became possible as a result of successful work to create a new generation small-sized nuclear reactor.
“At the end of 2017, a successful launch of a rocket with a nuclear power plant took place at the Central [Novaya Zemlya?] training ground of the Russian Federation. During the flight, the power plant reached its predetermined power and provided the necessary level of thrust. The flight tests, coupled with ground tests, allow us to move on to creating a strategic nuclear weapon complex with nuclear power plant "(from a speech by V.V. Putin before the Federal Assembly, 03/01/2018).
[Skyfall?] Missile tests have been conducted at least since 2017. As of mid-2019, according to Western data[where?] at least 13 missile launches have been completed. During launches at the Novaya Zemlya training ground, launches were monitored by IL-976 SKIP [Il-76/A-50 based Range Control and Missile tracking platform] Rosatom aircraft.
Work on Skyfall in a training ground assembly and test building (http://mil.ru) [a pointy nose for a merely
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The NATO name for the Petrel missile system is SSC-X-9 SKYFALL.
Skyfall in the Russian Armed Forces
If the missile test program is successfully completed, and if there is a political decision to deploy the missile, Skyfall missiles can become an important part of Russia's nuclear deterrence forces. Launch sites for Skyfall can be built in any - even the most remote - region of Russia.
The composition of Skyfall
Probably, if Skyfall enter service, they will include the following components:
- transporter erector launchers (TELs) or stationary missile launchers
- a flight information training center
- long-range radio communications for adjusting flight and target designation
- reconnaissance and target designation systems
- facilities for Skyfall maintenance and preparation and nuclear power plants
- [Skyfall Warhead?] Arsenal equipment and vehicles
During the tests, presumably wheeled 9P113 transporter erector launchers (TELs) were used (with 9P113s aleady being used for short range 9K52 Luna-M artillery rockets). With the Skyfalls being fired from launch containers previously used for P-35B GRAU 4K44B GLCMs.
Skyfall design
Skyfall's design is similar to the designs of most modern land and sea-based cruise missiles, but differs from them in size and layout. Presumably the rocket has the following layout:
- the central body of the fuselage
- a propulsion system with side air intakes and side nozzles
- folding swept wings and plumage.
- the central body of the fuselage
- a propulsion system with side air intakes and side nozzles
- folding swept wings and plumage.
The rocket uses a solid fuel launch booster. [not liquid?]
The main engine of the rocket is supposedly a nuclear air-jet engine (NAR) in which atmospheric air heated by a nuclear power plant acts as a working medium. On the tested rocket prototypes, a valid non-nuclear prototype of this engine was probably installed.
TTX missiles Skyfall
Length - not less than 12 m;
Case diameter - not less than 1
m;
Case width - about 1.5 m;
Plumage height - 3.6-3.8 m;
Maximum speed -
[transonic being Mach 0.72
to Mach 1]
Range of action - unlimited
One of the first test launches of the Skyfall (http://mil.ru)
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Combat equipment
Presumably, the missile will be equipped with a megaton class thermonuclear warhead
Preparation of Skyfall components for testing in the assembly and testing building of the test site (http://mil.ru)
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Control and guidance system
Skyfall's control system is autonomous inertial - with the flight reajusting using
navigation system adjustment and ground HQ commands. Perhaps Skyfall's flightpath can be updated and re-aimed midflight.
Modifications:
The Skyfall prototype is the first experimental prototype "of the rocket demonstrator."
Skyfall "- is an experimental series of cruise missiles for testing." Ends
[no mention of the "13" alleged "completed" flights here.]
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Article identified by /Kjell and translated from Russian by Pete
[no mention of the "13" alleged "completed" flights here.]
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Article identified by /Kjell and translated from Russian by Pete
Hi Pete,
ReplyDeleteSome more russian activity in nuclear powered weapons, but this time in the water Russia Testing Nuclear-Powered Mega-Torpedo Near Where Deadly Explosion Occurred
"This new weapon is described as an Intercontinental Nuclear-Powered Nuclear-Armed Autonomous Torpedo by the U.S. government.
The unique drone-like weapon is in an entirely new category. Launched from a large submarine, potentially from under the protection of the arctic ice cap, it would have virtually unlimited range and Russia claims that it will run so deep that it cannot realistically be countered with existing weapons. It's designed to be armed with a nuclear warhead, reportedly of 2 megatons, which represents a slow but unstoppable death-knell for the residents of coastal cities such as New York or San Francisco in the event of a nuclear war. The Russian Ministry of Defense also claims that it will be usable against high value maritime targets such as the U.S. Navy's carrier battle groups."
/Kjell
Hi /Kjell
ReplyDeleteI see the Poseidon (aka Kanyon or Status-6) project (for a large nuclear armed, nuclear powered torpedo) is, like Skyfall, another highly political Putin wonder weapon.
There seems to be a lot of unproven Russian declared details (uncritically spread by some Western media) that Putin has, by force of will, conjured Skyfall and Poseidon up to deployment stage almost overnight.
Given Russia has had great trouble replacing its aging, accident prone Oscars with Yasens, Deltas with Boreys and Kilos with Ladas/Kalinas, I doubt the industrial or budgetary capacity of Russia to almost deploy Poseidons and Skyfalls about one year after Putin announced their existence.
I see the future Poseidon as the world's slowest ICBM, which just happens to have a degree of submerged stealth (easily unmasked by active SOSUS).
There seems to be unquestioned Russian propaganda that because Poseidons may move at 100s kms/hour (not 10,000s kms/hour like ICBMs) that nothing can stop Poseidons.
Well a mine barrier, with active SOSUS sonar sensors, can already be in front of them. Deep sea torpedoes to, in Mark 48 or XLUUV form, could hit Poseidons head on. This is noting the US contemplated putting nuclear warheads on its Mark 45 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_45_torpedo in the 1960s.
The US is likely planning a Mutually Assured Destruction weapon equivalent. This may come by way of reactor driven XLUUVs with nuclear warheads. In that regard note the funded Lockheed Martin solution for the ORCA program appears to have dropped out of the news since October 2017 https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-us-orca-extra-large-uuv-xluuv.html
Also Russia/Soviet Union did have a very large conventionally powered, nuclear warhead 1550mm in the 1950, known as the T-15 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_torpedo#Soviet_Union . This was discontinued in the 1950s, partly because nuclear warhead could be miniaturised for 533mm and 650mm torpedos on SSKs and SSNs/SSGNs. Also Russian ICBMs were more effective and harder to hit in a first or second strike.
Regards
Pete
Here is a link to the Lockheed Martin "Marlin" response to the ORCA XLUUV program https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/orca-extra-large-unmanned-underwater-vehicle-xluuv.html .
ReplyDeleteThe modern iteration of Marlin's status is unknown. Hence it could now be a "black program" Poseidon-like weapon.
Pete
@Pete:
ReplyDeleteBoth programs seem to be real attempts to bypass both New START and any feasible US ABM system. Neither seems particularly relevant: the US can easily re-introduce extremely large numbers of warheads to its existing launchers should it exit New START in 2021 when the treaty comes up for renewal. Similarly, US ABM systems are in no way capable of significantly blunting the 1550 warheads Russia is allowed under New START. Both systems do not seem to be operational and both seem only useful in a full scale nuclear war as second strike weapons - which seems to indicate that Russia does not have full confidence in road mobile or submarine launched weapons surviving a US first strike. It also seems to imply it expects a US strategic first strike, or feels the overwhelming need to deter one. This might be due to the policy of nuclear de-escaltion that the Russians seem to be adopting - first use of a tactical weapon to deter further resistance. The biggest danger with such an action would be an overwhelming US strategic strike; in order to adopt a more aggresive tactical nuclear posture the Russians seem to be adopting a more responsive second strike capability.
Cheers,
Josh
Hi Josh
ReplyDeleteAll of your Aug 20, 2019 comment could be accurate.
I also add Putin seems to be searching for novelty in Skyfall and Poseidon. Both are 1950s-60s concepts that were discarded by the Soviets and US as MIRV (potentially from 1 to 20? per missile) became superior to any ABM system.
Putin's novel wonder weapons seem to be aimed at striking terror in US and UK publics - publics ignorant of MIRV superiority.
Regards
Pete