2016 Defence White Paper - Comparing Australia's relations with the 3 Submarine Contender countries

Continuing the keyword search approach to the 2016 Defence White Paper (DWP), using Ctrl + F, throws up comparative data on the three CEP participants by country (Germany, France and Japan).

This is particularly useful if there were a correlation between the number of mentions on countries/peoples and the choice of CEP winner. This is noting that the Governments of France and  Germany (and Japan of course) have leant weight to the corporate bids.

Also important is the more subjective element of the context of each comment. Quoting actual paragraphs below does to some extent remove the distortions of a document analyst's preconceptions. Distortion is known as the sin of "situating an analysis".

In the search process I have cited the mentions using the clearly marked paragraph numbers in the text. 

Keyword search of the DWP - large PDF, 10 MB, 191 pages, at  http://www.defence.gov.au/whitepaper/Docs/2016-Defence-White-Paper.pdf  yielded:

GERMAN/GERMANY

3 mentions.

2.105 Australia welcomes the comprehensive plan of action negotiated between the Permanent Five members of the United Nations Security Council (the United States, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom) plus Germany [P5 + 1] ...on Iran’s nuclear program.

4.121 France, Germany and Japan, are participating in the future submarine Competitive Evaluation Process [CEP], which will assess their ability to partner with Australia to deliver the future submarines...

5.86 Australia will also work with other partners, [War on Terror] ...This includes cooperation with a broad coalition of concerned countries, including...Germany.

FRANCE/FRENCH

10 mentions.

2.69 To help countries in our immediate neighbourhood respond to the challenges they face, Australia will continue to play an important regional leadership role. ...We will continue to play that role in close collaboration with New Zealand, France, the United States, Japan and other partners.

2.105 [see above]

4.121 [see above]

5.39 We will coordinate our efforts, particularly in relation to maritime security and disaster relief, with New Zealand, France, the United States and Japan.

5.83 Australia and France share a longstanding and close defence relationship with a shared commitment to addressing global security challenges such as terrorism and piracy. We are strong partners in the Pacific where France maintains important capabilities and we also work closely together to support the security of our respective Southern Ocean territories. Under the FRANZ Arrangement between France, Australia and New Zealand the three partners coordinate humanitarian and disaster relief operations in the Pacific. Australian and French defence forces worked alongside each other to provide life-saving humanitarian assistance to Vanuatu in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Pam.

5.84 Following the 13 November 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris, Australia has expressed its unwavering solidarity with the people of France. Australia will continue to work with France and other like-minded countries to combat Daesh as part of the fight against terrorism.

JAPAN/JAPANESE

36 mentions

Most are below.

Page 22 Executive Summary [no paragraph number available]  "As Australia’s strategic environment becomes more complex it is important to further develop our international partnerships including with our allies the United States and New Zealand, and with Japan, Indonesia, India, Singapore, the Republic of Korea, China and other key partners."

2.3 " Three Free Trade Agreements, with Korea, Japan and China, have entered into force since December 2015. The Trans Pacific Partnership between 12 regional nations, which account for 40 per cent of global trade, including the United States, Japan and Australia, has great potential to further drive opportunities for growth in Australia."

2.37 Asia’s defence spending is now larger than Europe’s. [Japan is in Figure 1]

2.69 ...We will continue to play that role in close collaboration with New Zealand, France, the United States, Japan and other partners.

2.72 ...The waters of South East Asia carry the great majority of Australia’s international trade including to our three largest export markets in China, Japan and the Republic of Korea. Nearly two thirds of Australia’s exports pass through the South China Sea, including our major coal, iron ore and liquefied natural gas exports...

2.80 Australia is committed to working with the countries of South East Asia, and with the United States, Japan, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand, India and China to support security, development and growth.

2.85 Australia has a deep and abiding interest in peace, stability and security in North Asia. More than half of Australia’s exports are to North Asia, with China, Japan and the Republic of Korea being three of Australia’s four biggest trading partners. Almost all of that trade, by volume, moves by sea. While our interests in peace and security in North Asia are vital, our capacity to influence events acting alone is limited. Our defence engagement in North Asia will continue to be based on partnerships, including with Japan, the Republic of Korea, and our alliance with the United States.

2.91 Japan is a major power in North Asia with advanced self-defence forces and is an important contributor to regional and global security. Australia welcomes the prospect of Japan playing a larger role in international security and will continue to deepen and broaden our growing security cooperation with Japan. More details on the Australia-Japan relationship can be found in Chapter Five.

3.9 below this para is [Figure 2. which has a prominent place for Japan as Australia's second top trading partner.]

4.121 France, Germany and Japan, are participating in the future submarine Competitive Evaluation Process [CEP], which will assess their ability to partner with Australia to deliver the future submarines...

5.9 The Government will increase the number of multinational exercises the ADF participates in across our immediate region and the broader IndoPacific, working closely with the United States, Japan and other regional countries and international partners.

5.17 The Government’s highest priority will continue to be our alliance with the United States. We will look to mature and deepen practical engagement with partners across the Indo-Pacific, particularly Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, India and China. We will also maintain global partnerships including with NATO...

5.28 The United States Force Posture Initiatives will also provide opportunities for broader collaboration between the United States, Australia and partners in the Indo-Pacific, including Japan

5.39 We will coordinate our efforts, particularly in relation to maritime security and disaster relief, with New Zealand, France, the United States and Japan.

5.59 Japan is a major power in North Asia with advanced military forces and an increasingly active approach to regional security. Australia and Japan have a deep and broad relationship. We share democratic values, have been close economic partners for decades and more recently we have become close strategic partners. We each have alliances with the United States and we have common strategic interests in secure and free-flowing trade routes, a stable Indo-Pacific region and a rules-based global order. We welcome the Japanese Government’s recent decision to adopt policies that will enable it to contribute more directly to regional and global security and stability.

5.60 Australia has a growing security relationship with Japan. In recent years we have signed treaty-level agreements on cooperation in defence science and technology, information sharing and logistics support. These agreements provide the basis for further developing our defence cooperation based on the 2007 Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation. 

5.61 Australia and Japan are implementing a broad range of initiatives to further enhance practical defence cooperation. These initiatives will strengthen defence cooperation in a number of areas including: increased training and exercises between all three Services, increased personnel exchanges, deepening cooperation on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, maritime security, peacekeeping, capacity building and increasing trilateral cooperation with our common ally the United States. We will enhance strategic dialogue between Australia and Japan, which includes joint Defence and Foreign Affairs 2+2 dialogue held at Ministerial level, as well as senior officials’ level dialogue. We will continue to explore opportunities to expand cooperation with Japan in areas such as intelligence, developing common capabilities like the Joint Strike Fighter, air and missile defence and maritime warfare technologies. 

5.62 To underpin our growing cooperation, we will work towards an agreement with Japan that improves our administrative, policy, and legal procedures to facilitate joint operations and exercises. 

5.63 We will continue to expand trilateral defence cooperation between Australia, Japan, and the United States for our mutual benefit.

5.67 Our strong defence relationship is underpinned by a mutual interest in working together with the United States and Japan to contribute to security in North Asia and shared concern about the threat posed by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. 

OTHER KEYWORD MENTIONS WERE

Indo-Pacific 68

Asia 85

Pacific 137
ANZUS (only) 7
NATO 13

Europe 2

COMMENT

If Australia is not putting any weight on intergovernmental relations in the CEP then the keyword search frequency approach to the DWP may be irrelevant.

Nevertheless, looking at the results:

Germany gets honourable mention as one of the P5 + 1 nations on Iran nuclear; is a CEP participant and is/has been a fellow venturer with Australia in the Middle East and Afghanistan in the War on Terror.

France, usually grouped with other regional nations, cooperates with Australia on maritime security especially Pacific regional humanitarian/disaster relief and is in CEP. We jointly work together on global security including counter-terrorism and piracy. France, Australia and New Zealand are party to the FRANZ Arrangement.

In March 2016 Japan is way ahead on mentions and column inches. Australia's current and future relationship with Japan appears very close. This is on the alliance, common opponents, importance of North Asia,  officer exchanges, 2 + 2, second top trade partner, in CEP, Japan being more active in regional order, treaty-level agreements on cooperation in defence science and technology, information sharing and logistics support.

Paragraph 5.61 summarises the growing Australia - Japan relationship well. Rather revealing on the CEP may be the final sentence of 5.61 "We will continue to explore opportunities to expand cooperation with Japan in areas such as intelligence, developing common capabilities like...maritime warfare technologies."

So even if Japan were not the CEP winner there is what amounts to a close alliance relationship with Australia to console Japan.

Pete