Aus Future Submarine Program, Yen in, Dragons out

OYASHIO - SORYU TABLE (latest as at January 19, 2016)

SS No.	Building No.	Pennant No.	MoF approved amount ¥ Billions & FY	LABs, LIBs, AIP	Laid Down	Laun -ched	Commi-ssioned	Built By
5SS Oyashio	8105	SS-590/ TS3608	¥52.2B FY1993	LABs only	Jan 1994	Oct 1996	Mar 1998	KHI
6SS-15SS Oyashios 10 subs	8106 -8115	SS-591-600	¥52.2B per sub FY1994-FY2003	LABs only	Feb 1994		Mar 2008	MHI & KHI
16SS Soryu Mark 1	8116	SS-501	¥60B FY2004	LABs + AIP	Mar 2005	Dec 2007	Mar 2009	MHI
17SS	8117	SS-502	¥58.7B FY2005	LABs + AIP	Mar 2006	Oct 2008	Mar 2010	KHI
18SS	8118	SS-503	¥56.2 FY2006	LABs + AIP	Feb 2007	Oct 2009	Mar 2011	MHI
19SS	8119	SS-504	¥53B FY2007	LABs + AIP	Mar 2008	Nov 2010	Mar 2012	KHI
20SS	8120	SS-505	¥51B FY2008	LABs + AIP	Mar 2009	Oct 2011	Mar 2013	MHI
No 21SS			No 21SS built
22SS	8121	SS-506	¥52.8B FY2010	LABs + AIP	Jan 2011	Oct 2013	Mar 2015	KHI
23SS	8122	SS-507	¥54.6B FY2011	LABs + AIP	Feb 2012	Oct 2014	Mar 2016	MHI
24SS	8123	SS-508	¥54.7B FY2012	LABs + AIP	Mar 2013	Nov 2015	Mar 2017	KHI
25SS	8124	SS-509	¥53.1B FY2013	LABs + AIP	Oct 2013	Nov 2016	Mar 2018	MHI
26SS	8125	SS-510	¥51.7B FY2014	LABs + AIP	?	?	Mar 2019	KHI
27SS Soryu Mark 2	8126	SS-511	¥64.3B FY2015 new: snorkel, sonar, floating deck & G-RX6 torpedo	LIBs only	?	?	Mar 2020	MHI
28SS	8127	SS-512	¥63.6B FY2016	LIBs only	?	?	Mar 2021	KHI
29SS	?	?	1st of New Class	LIBs only	?	?	?	?
Aus1	?	?	Super SoryuAU	LIBs only	2023?	2025?	2027?	in Aus
Aus2 to 8?	?	?	Super SoryuAU	LIBs only	2024?	2026	2028	in Aus

Table mainly courtesy of updates provided to Submarine Matters by Japanese sources. Note that it summarises the 11 submarines of the Oyashio Program (5SS - 15SS) then continues through the Soryu Program (16SS onwards)

* The Dragon names have been removed – while important in Japanese culture such names are not important to Australian or Americans. Instead the column is filled with Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) approved Budget Amounts in Yen (¥) Billions (B) (¥1 Billion = A$12 million on Jan 15, 2016). FY = First Year of Budgeting. These Yen  and FY years were provided by S to Submarine Matters for the article of January 13, 2016.

** LAB = lead-acid batteries, AIP = air independent propulsion, LIB = lithium-ion batteries. 

On January 16, 2016 in the Comment Thread S explained:

“The budgets for the Soryu are 20SS (¥51B), 22SS (¥52.8B), 23SS (¥54.6B), 24SS (¥54.7B), 25SS (¥53.1B) and 26SS (¥51.7B). The fluctuation of the cost is due to a combination of yearly small modifications and a continuous effort toward cost reduction as follows:

-  the MoD investigates the flow of funds to private companies on payee, expenditure and contract for procurement of submarines, and confirms that there are no problems. The cost audit after fulfillment of submarine building has been conducted from FY2002.

-  as a result of effort toward cost reduction including use of government supply, adoption of open tender and reduction of man-hours, the executed price has gradually decreased from FY2004 to FY 2007.

The man-hours of the second batch of MHI and KHI launched submarines (18SS and 19SS respectively) is about 10% lower than for the first batch (that being MHI 16SS and KHI 17SS) achieved by reduction of man-hours. This is achieved through learning, setting of standard man-hours for similar work and through time management.

PETE COMMENT 

The broad future decisions on the Australian choice (of Japan, TKMS or DCNS) are up to the National Security Committee of the Australian Cabinet with a decision likely late 2016. Much will then depend on a managerial-industrial mix of Australian companies and the "winner" (eg. Japan) building 2/3s of the subs and US companies (Raytheon and/or Lockheed Martin (as possible integrator) for 1/3 = Combat System and Weapons). Ideally Japanese expertise/experience will have main carriage of the 2/3s + 1/3s integration as a it would be messy if all three countries were constantly negotiating throughout the Program.

Undelining that the Submarine Program would not be just an Australian-Japan affair is that politically powerful Lockheed Martin has opened a Combat System Laboratory in Adelaide. A US citizen (Rear Adm (rtd) Stephen Johnson US Navy) has already been appointed General Manager, Australian Future Submarine Program - presumably he is well placed to manage and balance US, Japanese and Australian interests. 

Regarding “Aus1 ***” in the Table the dates and places where the subs are built inevitably involves opinion. Aus1 is the first of class for Australia. It may make sense to have it built in Kobe, Japan to ease initial construction, testing and certification issues. From Aus2 the numbers only go up to Aus6 in the Table because only 6 subs might be built (based on the formula 6 + 2 (maybes) used for the Oberons and Collins). (After this Submarine Matters article the Adelaide Advertiser indicated fewer than 12 subs to be built.) Building Aus2 to Aus6 in Kobe need only be a last resort if a re-run of the Collins or Air Warfare Destroyer (see 2010 onwards) problems are developing. Such a things-going-wrong situation obviously needs to be picked up early (eg. in 2023).

Whatever happens, if Japan is chosen, the materials for the submarines will mainly be produced in Japan (mainly by MHI and KHI?) and the Combat System in the US.

As with other Japanese ventures in Australia (eg. car factories) a large number of Japanese managerial and technical advisers should be in Australia. 

The clear record of Japanese submarine building discipline should produce a positive industrial and political (Federal and State levels) experience, thus minimising anarchy.

A useful and basically new background reference on the Future Submarine (Collins Replacement) Program is here.

Pete