tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post7846675601340596487..comments2024-03-29T10:27:42.765+11:00Comments on Submarine Matters & Australian Nuclear Weapons: Australia's Future Submarine - a $40 Billion Risk?Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-51346929388526114532014-07-26T19:12:52.053+10:002014-07-26T19:12:52.053+10:00Hi Harish
Lucky Australian grad students in the D...Hi Harish<br /><br />Lucky Australian grad students in the DC area.<br /><br />I hope some of the efficiency of American submarine building methods rubs off on them.<br /><br />Regards<br /><br />PetePetehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02624742078679760819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-1189252826549985432014-07-24T09:27:12.696+10:002014-07-24T09:27:12.696+10:00Hi Pete,
Indeed lots of people from Australia her...Hi Pete, <br />Indeed lots of people from Australia here, Infact quite a few from active service personnel who are doing their masters here,some I believe from AUSTAL the ship building firm.<br />cheers <br />HarishAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-81361181984173105282014-07-23T19:56:16.331+10:002014-07-23T19:56:16.331+10:00Hi Harish
As you would have found the Uni of Mary...Hi Harish<br /><br />As you would have found the Uni of Maryland is known as a seriously good university - like Georgetown... close to the seat of decision-making - a bit like ANU in Australia.<br /><br />I've been meaning to read some 2011 US RAND Corporation studies http://www.rand.org/topics/submarines.html concerning Australian submarine issues. Will soon get round to it.<br /><br />Regards<br /><br />PetePetehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02624742078679760819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-65308703642499657132014-07-23T05:19:15.121+10:002014-07-23T05:19:15.121+10:00Hi Pete,
I am right now in at the univ of Maryland...Hi Pete,<br />I am right now in at the univ of Maryland. and interning at rand corp<br />Cheers <br />HarishAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-19724796100382902462014-07-22T22:30:13.897+10:002014-07-22T22:30:13.897+10:00Hi Harish
So from which US state are you writing ...Hi Harish<br /><br />So from which US state are you writing from?<br /><br />Regards<br /><br />PetePetehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02624742078679760819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-86885314192291596462014-07-22T17:49:15.358+10:002014-07-22T17:49:15.358+10:00Hi Pete,
haha don't get me wrong here " i...Hi Pete,<br />haha don't get me wrong here " if India operated its SSNs too close to Australia's shores and in a confrontational way - that might speed an Australian decision in favour of Virginia buying" I doubt India would ever be bothered to do that. A deterrence patrol that far from its coast especially with way Indian strategic forces are buried under tons of bureacrazy nope no hope. I doubts the rulers will trust the military with nuclear weapons so far their shores Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-79503491275035548312014-07-22T15:51:21.640+10:002014-07-22T15:51:21.640+10:00Hi Harish
If the Australia government had any sen...Hi Harish<br /><br />If the Australia government had any sense it would consider the years old US offer of Virginia Class SSGNs. This is due to the profound advantages of nuclear propulsion for Australia long transit (Fremantle to operational areas) needs.<br /><br />As the Virginias http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S9G_reactor reactor runs on 93% "Bomb grade" HEU an Australia purchase of Virginias would run into NPT sensitivities. <br /><br />Significant the S9G never needs to be refueled (has a 33 year - one fueling life) which might plausibly reduce NPT sensitivities.<br /><br />Australia already has a medium range ASCM or SLCM in the Harpoon missiles already in the Collins. The Collins are also capable of firing Tomahawk's through their torpedo tubes - but apparently do not carry Tomahawks.<br /><br />If India operated its SSNs too close to Australia's shores and in a confrontational way - that might speed an Australian decision in favour of Virginia buying.<br /><br />Cheers<br /><br />PetePetehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02624742078679760819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-38859188106459342872014-07-22T12:18:11.995+10:002014-07-22T12:18:11.995+10:00Hi Pete,
I Think I should have rephrased my earli...Hi Pete,<br />I Think I should have rephrased my earlier question, I was wondering would Australia look into nuclear propulsion for submarines not as a deterrent because I feel that any state under the present NPT regime would not be inclined to go down that route. <br />I believe a SSN with australia armed with ASCM would be a game changer. I speak this as both India and Brazil are going down this route and both definitely have one or other of the superpowers providing them technical knowhow. I believe Nuclear propulsion does not violate any NPT clause however I am sure you have a better idea<br />Cheers<br />HarishAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-87952127553516390302014-07-22T01:28:53.885+10:002014-07-22T01:28:53.885+10:00Hi Harish
Thanks for the biodata.
In response to...Hi Harish<br /><br />Thanks for the biodata.<br /><br />In response to your questions: <br /><br />Yes both Aus and NZ wish the South Pacific region to remain nuclear free. NZ still doesn't allow US nuclear armed-propelled vessels in NZ waters. <br /><br />Aus relies on the US for extended nuclear deterrence and quietly NZ probably does as well. <br /><br />NZ spends little on Defence. NZ forces frequently augment Australia's larger defence force when they operate overseas.<br /><br />No change of heart - only if Japan became nuclear armed, with domino effect of S Korea and Taiwan going nuclear - then Aus might go nuclear - see http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2010/01/lyons-australian-nuclear-paper.html<br /><br />I don't know how long it would take Aus to go nuclear. <br /><br />Extra range for Australia subs adds operational flexibility, extra time and distance to loiter "on station" - say up to South China Sea and further. Bringing Pakistan and Iran into surveillance range might be handy. Don't know if there are Russian concerns but certainly concerns over China.<br /><br />Regards<br /><br />Pete Petehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02624742078679760819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-87455560916463431442014-07-21T10:00:23.133+10:002014-07-21T10:00:23.133+10:00Hi pete,
I am from India, However a student in Uni...Hi pete,<br />I am from India, However a student in United States, If that should clear that up<br />cheers <br />harishAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-25895905463789792942014-07-20T22:50:41.535+10:002014-07-20T22:50:41.535+10:00Hi Harish
I'm happy to respond in brief to yo...Hi Harish<br /><br />I'm happy to respond in brief to your questions once you indicate what you do and what country you are living in.<br /><br />Regards<br /><br />PetePetehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02624742078679760819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-1473127658219636842014-07-19T10:24:32.054+10:002014-07-19T10:24:32.054+10:00Hi Pete,
I was under the impression that Australia...Hi Pete,<br />I was under the impression that Australia and New Zealand wish to be Nuclear free, do you think there would be a change of heart now due to changing geopolitics in East Asia. However that said how many years would it take australia to build crews and expertise in the area, finally the question as asked by Matthias, why is there a range anxiety in Australia for submarines. Is the due to resumptions of deterrence patrols by Russia and beginning of Jin class. I still believe Australia is not far behind western Navies in ASW operations certainly better prepared than most emerging powers in that scene with the help of USN<br />Cheers <br />HarishAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-59261133157899421762014-07-19T09:19:51.375+10:002014-07-19T09:19:51.375+10:00Thanks jbmoore
Australia seems to be congenitally...Thanks jbmoore<br /><br />Australia seems to be congenitally incapable of making a new submarine decision. If Australia had accepted the US offer 4 years ago of buying 4 to 6 Virginia class submarines money and decision making effort would have been saved.<br /><br />Yep Australia's F-35 purchase is very much the act of paying a large premium on insurance for the US alliance.<br /><br />Regards<br /><br />PetePetehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02624742078679760819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-78180525789307934242014-07-18T13:11:47.993+10:002014-07-18T13:11:47.993+10:00Well, whatever decision Australia makes, I hope it...Well, whatever decision Australia makes, I hope it is a good one. I hope your country cancels the F-35 order. jbmoorehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751110750712243573noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-24065024950807627632014-07-18T12:19:17.944+10:002014-07-18T12:19:17.944+10:00Hi Harish
The issues you raise are good ones - th...Hi Harish<br /><br />The issues you raise are good ones - that are constantly under discussion here in Australia. <br /><br />The TKMS Type 212 isn't marketed for export. It is the similar Type 214 that is being exported.<br /><br />Yes the Dolphin is larger than the 214 and probably more suited to Australia's longer range, longer endurance requirements.<br /><br />TKMS has been marketing the (mainly drawing board) very large 216 as a solution for Australia's, Canada's and India's longer range, longer endurance needs. <br /><br />Regards<br /><br />PetePetehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02624742078679760819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-29232179125749712014-07-18T11:25:38.370+10:002014-07-18T11:25:38.370+10:00Hi Pete,
As a casual observer I just wanted to kno...Hi Pete,<br />As a casual observer I just wanted to know why Australia isn't interested the type 212A with AIP's, do these have some deficiencies in range that cannot be overcome by modification of the submarines themselves. I mention this as the Israeli 212 (dolphin class)seems to be modified for Israeli use. This option seems to be the cheapest and most risk free<br />Cheers<br />Harish Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-35174222730578554812014-07-17T21:08:53.522+10:002014-07-17T21:08:53.522+10:00Hi MHalblaub
Thanks for your comments. Disintangl...Hi MHalblaub<br /><br />Thanks for your comments. Disintangling the ASC and DMO way of doing things and their current management from the Future Submarine project is essential. <br /><br />The ANZAC frigate project was carried out efficiently in Australia so their is hope. Yes Australia's workers and engineers could build the subs if a company like TKMS or DCNS had prime managerial influence - through an Australian subsidiary. <br /><br />Your German or French training suggestions are good ones.<br /><br />On the decision to build overseas or in Australia, or section in both, much would depend on comparative cost estimates. But I wouldn't trust DMO or ASC to do the estimates.<br /><br />This is an ongoing issue which will entertain us for years.<br /><br />Cheers<br /><br />Pete <br /><br /> Petehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02624742078679760819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-54120015001882853402014-07-17T20:36:35.411+10:002014-07-17T20:36:35.411+10:00Dear Pete,
I have several remarks I want to add t...Dear Pete,<br /><br />I have several remarks I want to add to your conclusions. <br /><br />The first one is ASC should never build or touch any future Australian submarine. That has to be said about ASC’S management but not about workers and engineers. <br /><br />Like you I can see only one successful option to build a new Australian submarine in an affordable way: the use of a foreign prime contractor. Only a foreign prime contractor like TKMS or DCNS could be squeezed with penalties for late deliveries or other things. <br /><br />I have to disagree with you on the point that Australia can’t build these new submarines. For sure ASC can’t do it or even maintain a submarine properly but that is not a fault of the workers or engineers. Especially TKMS has a background of training foreign workers and engineers to German standard and to send them back to build the submarines in their home country. They did this with Greek, Argentine and very successful with South Korean workers and also with Israeli engineers who implemented further features for bigger missiles on their submarines. Airbus trained the workers and engineers for the new final assembly line in Alabama in Hamburg. The company building these submarines in Australia should be a 100 % subsidiary of the prime contractor due to the same financial reasons. Only the first submarine should be build abroad. <br /><br />Another company working in Australia could also be smart to keep the price for the frigates low.<br /><br />Due to the licensed build Japan is out due to the fact Japanese companies have no experience of licensed build of submarines. <br /><br /><br />Regards,<br />MHalblaub<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com