"https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2026/06/sks-hanwha-ocean-more-likely-to-win.html?showComment=1782012441664#c5139199395139421391
"Pete2 said...
Hi Anonymouses at 6/20/2026 6:14 AM and at 6/20/2026 9:47 AM
I acknowledge your greater expertise than I on future Canadian Submarine issues. I think the odds are SK 45% and Germany 55%.
The KSS-III might be a slightly better sub. But the Type 212CD has the political alliance advantage (Canada being in NATO) of being from fellow NATO country (Germany). Also the main allies the new sub will need to interoperate with are in NATO (against Russia).
Canada would have less interest in interoperating with SK against NK or China or for that matter against SK's "frenemy" Japan. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frenemy
Cheers Pete
I acknowledge your greater expertise than I on future Canadian Submarine issues. I think the odds are SK 45% and Germany 55%.
The KSS-III might be a slightly better sub. But the Type 212CD has the political alliance advantage (Canada being in NATO) of being from fellow NATO country (Germany). Also the main allies the new sub will need to interoperate with are in NATO (against Russia).
Canada would have less interest in interoperating with SK against NK or China or for that matter against SK's "frenemy" Japan. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frenemy
Cheers Pete
6/21/2026 1:27 PM"
It seems TKMS won the contract:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/tkms-deutscher-ruestungskonzern-erhaelt-wohl-mega-u-boot-auftrag/100238217.html
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canada-submarine-contract-germany-tkms/
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-picks-germany-tkms-build-124628929.html
https://financialpost.com/news/canada-picks-germanys-tkms-to-build-new-submarines
Thanks Pete. I can’t criticise the Canadian decision. First they made a sensible shortlist - two SSK designs with the range they need, from reliable suppliers.
ReplyDeleteSecond they have made a sensible build choice, given that Germany and Norway have guaranteed them build slots to ensure the critical first few subs arrive quickly. Its a big win for TKMS (Type 212CD now 24 hulls!), and NATO commonality in the North Atlantic.
There were no bad options for Canada, given they made a sensible shortlist. I see this as Canada doubling down on trade links with the EU, given what Trump is doing to both NATO and the Canadian economy via tariffs. This is an extension of the Gripen thinking.
Hi Anonymous at 7/07/2026 12:06 PM
ReplyDeleteI agree.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_212CD_submarine#Future_operators is very informative, with:
"Canada (12)
Germany and Norway offered an Arctic protection partnership to Canada, which includes the Type 212 CD for Canada.[63]
In July 2024, Canada publicly unveiled its plan for the future of its navy, which includes up to 12 submarines.[64]
On August 26, 2025 the Type 212CD was shortlisted alongside the KSS-III Batch-II as the only qualified options under the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project.[65][66]
On 06 July 2026, the Government of Canada selected the Type 212CD as the Royal Canadian Navy's new fleet of submarines.[67][68]
Several agreements were signed with Canadian industries to localise the production, and include:
- Seaspan ULC signed a teaming agreement with TKMS to get a sovereign capability for the sustainment and through-life support of naval ships.[69]
- Magellan Aerospace signed an agreement for the production of heavy torpedoes and their maintenance, and participates in the development and production of anti-torpedo torpedoes.[70][71]
- Strategic Teaming Agreement signed with EllisDon related to long-term infrastructure to support the CPSP.[72]
- TKMS signed agreements related to indigenous Canadians developments with:[73] Songhees Development Corporation, Des Nedhe Group Defence and Glooscap Ventures, Inuit Development Corporation Association "
Cheers Pete
Hi Pete,
DeleteCanada basically joins Germany and Norway for the Type-212CD project, and as a NATO partner nation, and once the agreement is officially signed in 2027, can send its submariners to Kiel to train in Germany’s facilities and deploy on current German boats.
Canada’s order of 12 boats doubles the Type-212CD fleet to 24 boats, enabling a TKMS to enjoy a huge economy of scale for production.
TKMS will maintain a build cadence of 1.5 boats a year, and has guaranteed delivery of Canada’s first boat by 2033, as this could boat could from the already established German/Norwegian order.
Interesting that India still has not confirmed its TKMS contract, which Indian media claimed would happen in May.
Hi Shawn,
DeleteI wouldn't hold my breath on the Indian P-75I contract. From what I'm hearing it may still be several months away, if not longer. As I speculated earlier, it may end up getting delayed till such time that the India-EU FTA is finalized (or is at least internally assured of being finalized).
Either way, the plan is to build all 6 boats under P-75I in Indian shipyards (Mazagon Dock to be exact, same yard that built all 6 of our Scorpenes). So the Indian order will not take up any build slots at TKMS' own facilities, though a lot of the component manufactures that provide the inputs/subsystems to the German yards will have to provide equipment to the Indian yard as well, so that could lead to some backlog if they don't scale up their production appropriately.
Cheers,
Gessler
I'd like to add that TKMS is negotiating license-production of submarines with Navantia of Spain. They may share the Cartagena based outfitting and final assembly line for the construction of Type 212CDs and/or Indian Type 214s, since these are currently the only classes on order, as far as I know. Type 209s are still "in the catalogue", but I am not aware of any orders after that of Egypt in 2014 or so. However, TKMS sported the idea of a Type 209NG with LiFePo4 batteries, PERMASYN motors, a low-TES nose etc. for Argentina. That order, however, went to Naval Group of France. C'est la vie...
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tkmsgroup.com/de/news/artikel/tkms-und-navantia-unterzeichnen-absichtserklaerung-zur-kooperation-bei-marineprojekten