Gessler on March 14, 2026, commented:
As
for Iran, while it's a possibility that China may have supplied them advanced
AAMs (like Iran's Fakour-90) it should be noted that unlike Pakistan, Iran does not have any Airborne
Early Warning & Control (AEW&C) aircraft that are necessary to take
full advantage of extended-range AAMs by providing targeting cues for fighters
carrying those AAMs.
SAMs remain a threat but it seems the US & Israel have conducted an
extensive SEAD/DEAD campaign before bringing any of their aircraft into or near
Iran's airspace. But from what I'm gathering, they have only obtained air
superiority/air dominance over limited sections of Iranian airspace...which
implies Iranian SAMs are still active in other parts of the country.
Iran already operates the older Russian S-300 system which has long-range
capabilities as well. So even without any Iranian S-400s (or maybe they have?) coming in, any
airborne activity near Iran is under threat - despite the fact Iran's
target-acquisition capabilities may have already been degraded significantly.
I'd say the threat to allied aircraft is actually more on the ground. Iran's
drone strikes with Shahed-136 and other models have been relentless and have
successfully achieved saturation effects against US military bases at several
locations. US expensive & hard-to-replace assets like the AN/FPS-132 early
warning radar & AN/TPY-2 radars used by THAAD batteries have been damaged
and/or destroyed at multiple sites.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/iranian-attacks-on-critical-missile-defense-radars-are-a-wake-up-call
Recently, up to five USAF KC-135 tankers were supposedly struck by Iranian
drones when parked at the Prince Sultan air base in Saudi Arabia (much farther
from Iran than UAE):
Contradictory reports https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/iran-missile-strike-kc135-saudi-arabia-us-airpower-logistics-prince-sultan-air-base/ and https://www.jpost.com/international/article-889882
Smaller aircraft like fighters have some provision for Hardened Aircraft
Shelters (HAS) that can protect against the effects of most drone attacks. But larger force-multiplier aircraft like KC-135 refuelers or E-3 AWACS (or indeed
the Australian E-7 Wedgetails) don't have this luxury and therefore remain
uniquely vulnerable to Iranian drones and missiles.
The USAF seems to have now evacuated a lot of their vulnerable assets like the
aforementioned KC-135s to bases in Europe:
https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/us-evacuates-kc135-tankers-prince-sultan-air-base-iran-missile-threat-gulf/
"You have no cards!" - "We have drones and know how to use them."
ReplyDeleteHi Anonymous
DeleteIt is odd your comment ""We have drones and know how to use them."" didn't come from Iran. Instead your details are:
"4 (1 this session)
Latest Page View: 19 Mar 2026 20:50:10
Total Sessions: 3
Location: Nuremberg, Bayern, Germany
ISP / IP Address: Deutsche Telekom Ag (80.153.141.94)"
Thanks Gessler for the informative comments. The US military hardware is not actually performing badly. F35s are ranging over much of Iran with impunity. The initial missile attacks were deadly accurate.
ReplyDeleteYet that only makes the seeming lack of a US strategy to win this war more damning. Decapitation strikes are not regime change.
Defending air bases could be a big problem. The Ukraine war has shown that Iran can produce and fire Shaheed drones at a scale of thousands per month. US interceptor numbers will run out long before Iranian drones do. What then? Will Australia’s solitary E7 be left like a shag on a rock?
An F-35 was just damaged over Iran, but made it back to base. Lots of speculation and I don’t trust the Iranian video, but perhaps the pilot was flying too low and got hit by a SHORAD.
ReplyDeleteThe F-35s biggest flaw is its massive IR signature
https://www.twz.com/air/usaf-f-35-makes-emergency-landing-after-allegedly-being-hit-by-iranian-fire
Iran Fires Two Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missiles at Diego Garcia Base:
ReplyDelete"The attempted strike on Diego Garcia would mark a major escalation,
highlighting Tehran’s apparent ability to target the strategic U.S.-UK base deep
in the Indian Ocean and potentially put parts of Europe within reach."
Source:
https://theaviationist.com/2026/03/21/iran-fires-two-intermediate-range-ballistic-missiles-at-diego-garcia-base/
Iran launched two Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles at Diego Gracia on Friday morning, with one reentry vehicle landing in the sea while the other was intercepted by “a US warship”, which indicates it was on a trajectory to hit the base on the island.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yljdgwppzo
Current range and capabilities of Iranian strategic missile and rocket forces are unknown, they have been degraded by the US/Israeli attacks but not completely, as there have been IRBM hits on Israeli cities. I’m actually wondering why Iran has yet to fire anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM)? We know they have them and the Houthi’s have used them successfully.
Some good news!
ReplyDelete"Australia and EU agree sweeping trade deal in face of global uncertainty"
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly6g6l6lq7o
Regards,
MHalblaub,
close to Nürnberg (~150 km)
Thanks Shawn at 3/20/2026 9:07 PM
ReplyDeleteEven though shoot downs are rare the cost to the US of running the war may be $3 Billion/day in missiles, bombs, 2 carrier groups and all the electronic support.
I dare say the US is subsidising Israel's side of the Iran and Lebanon wars to the tune of $500 million/day.
Cheers Pete
Thanks Anonymous at 3/22/2026 12:45 PM
ReplyDeleteI'm wondering if Iran will switch to chemical weapon "special" warheads for its IRBMs if it becomes desperate enough.
Pete
Hi Shawn at 3/22/2026 6:05 PM
ReplyDeletePerhaps. as you say, "on a trajectory to hit" Diego Garcia or the US shot down the warhead for real world conditions practice or for political intent.
Yes a mystery why "Iran has yet to fire anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM)?" Too easy for US SM-3s or 6s to shoot one or two down? Or maybe Iran would try ASBMs in swarms (with chaff and other penetration aids) if desperate enough?
Hey Pete,
DeleteIt could be the Iranians are waiting for an opportune moment when the US military has “emptied its quiver” of SAMs countering its persistent UAV and BM attacks, or when they decide to move the USN heavy units closer to Iran, for the Kharg Island invasion plan, for example.
Iran is likely getting satellite feed from the Russians, and they could be waiting to swarm a ARG or CBG that gets too close with UAVs, ASCMs and ASBMs.
Hi MHalblaub "close to Nürnberg (~150 km)" :-) at 3/25/2026 12:35 AM
ReplyDeleteThats good peaceful news "Australia and EU agree sweeping trade deal in face of global uncertainty" https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly6g6l6lq7o
And any trade deal that excludes the economically unreliable and destructive US is welcome to we countries of the Free From Tump's US (FFTUS) world.
BTW - The Leopard 2 is proving the best tank in the world (with its conventional diesel engine) from Ukraine experience. Meanwhile the US Abrams M1 (with its thirsty turbine engine) is far less useful.
Cheers Pete
M1E3 is going to have a Caterpillar Diesel engine.
Deletehttps://www.twz.com/land/m1e3-next-gen-abrams-tank-production-could-begin-next-year
Regards,
MHalblaub
Hi Shawn at 3/26/2026 9:25 PM
ReplyDeleteI'm sure Hegseth wishes to expand the war into a US Marines/US Army invasion or at least Kharg Island raids. Also those 2 services would resent their inactivity, while the USN and USAF are scoring all career enhancing action.
Yes it could be the Iranians are waiting for a depletion of US SAM supplies before launching a mass attacks of Iranian UAVs, BMs, cruise missiles, UUVs, minisubs, smart mines and USVs.
It would be interesting if the US could expose Russian intelligence and targetting support for Iran.
Here's a short video "US Invasion Hormuz Strait - Could It Be Another Okinawa 1945?" at https://youtu.be/UwKoSoXnX7w?si=-ZMEn_BFti7C2HeP
Cheers Pete
Hi Shawn, MHalblaub and Anonymouses
ReplyDeleteHere is an excellent video on the exchange rate disadvantage of pitting expensive US weapons against cheap, plentiful, good enough Iranian weapons. With the intro:
"The US Navy destroyed 120 Iranian warships — and Hormuz is still closed. Two carrier strike groups, eight Aegis destroyers, and $40 billion in naval firepower couldn't reopen a six-mile shipping lane clogged with 1,500 fast boats."
See https://youtu.be/dEAS7wYPFoM?si=wCihiYp4CYq7Xbl5
Hi MHalblaub at 3/27/2026 10:12 PM
ReplyDeleteAll the gear on top of the M1E3 turret appears like a throwback to the tall US M60. Also keeping the M1E3 down to 60 tonnes may be defeated by all the interest groups in the US Army who want to add weight. Extra weight would put a strain on the new diesel. https://www.twz.com/land/m1e3-next-gen-abrams-tank-production-could-begin-next-year
I'd buy me a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopard_2#Leopard_2A8 and an Abrams M1E3 just to compare. Although I'd need to build a large shed with extra thick concrete floors :)
Diesel prices are also quite high - especially for tanks - with consumption measured in liters per km.
My Dad was a tanker, involved in buying the Abrams for Australia.
Cheers Pete
Hey Pete,
ReplyDeleteThat’s a marketing mock up at the Detroit Motor Show, the production turret has not been finalised at this point in time. Note that they are talking about hydropneumatic Horstman suspension like it’s the next big tank technology, not mentioning it first used in 1983 in the British Challenger 1 tank.
A better take on the M1E3 https://youtu.be/Xnd9fcgEuaw
Modern American weapons designs tend to have a major design compromise, they are made to be the ‘best and greatest’, and can only be mastered by professional soldiers/sailors/aviators who have trained continuously on them for at least two years. That’s not so great for conscript armies. This is why the Leopard 2 is such a popular tank, it was designed for conscript soldiers and reservists.
Hi Pete,
ReplyDeleteAmerica has not evacuated its aircraft and personnel from Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia and just lost another KC-135 and an E-2 AWAC to Iranian ballistic missiles. At least 20 soldiers were apparently injured, some seriously.
The USAF only has 16 worn out AWACS now.
https://youtu.be/pBTsL3I6rLA
ReplyDeleteIraqi aircraft are being hit too:
https://apnews.com/video/iraqi-military-aircraft-destroyed-in-missile-attack-on-baghdad-air-base-38fe3ada54384ebca32845931263a819
Hi Shawn at 3/28/2026 3:16 PM
ReplyDeleteThe basic M1 seems to sit comfortably low if Army interests don't put too many appliances on the turret making the tank too high for concealment.
I note that Singapore's conscript army use the Leopard 2SG and other Leopard 2 variants https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Singapore_Army
Australia is secretive about whether its professional army with its M1s are performing well.
Cheers Pete
Hi Pete at 3/31/2026 2:29 PM 😀
DeleteYes, the Singapore military has offloaded much of its MRO to ST Engineering, who have a pool of critical talent with the experience, so the Leopard 2s are ideal as they were initially designed for conscripts and reservist soldiers and vehicle mechanics.
The ADF operated M1A1 tanks from 2008 to 2024, and is now replacing them with M1A2 SEP v3 tanks. 49 M1A1s were Ukraine by late 2025, thought these have the ‘export’ armour package (without DU enhancement), they will be the heaviest armoured tanks the Ukrainians operate, and have received ERA and other combat armour enhancements.
Hi Shawn at 3/29/2026 8:05 PM
ReplyDeleteYes reports are true that a USAF obsolete E-3 Sentry AWACs and KC-135 refueller were destroyed at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia 2 days ago. Time for the USAF to lift the Ultranationalist Hegseth (only aircraft fully developed in the USA curse) and bring in E-7 Wedgetail (partly developed in Australia) AWACs replacements.
The Trump-Hegseth junta seem to be downplayting US armed forces equipment and human losses in Trump-Hegseth junta's permanent world war footing.
Hi Pete at 3/31/2026 2:41 PM
DeleteAccording to satellite image reports, that specific E-3 did not move for at least a few days, it was likely not flight worthy, but why the USAF didn’t bother to tow it to another parking area every day is a subject for a BOI or court marshal.
This is also the reason why Russia has lost a couple of A-50 airborne radar and IL-76 transports to Ukrainian long range drones, basically when you operate aircraft for decades longer than they’ve been in production, expect them to wear out and require a massive maintenance effort, with viable spares in short supply.
To Everyone
ReplyDeleteHere is an earlier version of Trump dispensing advice for free:
https://youtu.be/tmo813-YTiI?si=M45FYMGVBpn-ZVG5
Thanks Anonymous at 3/31/2026 10:53 AM
ReplyDeleteFor https://apnews.com/video/iraqi-military-aircraft-destroyed-in-missile-attack-on-baghdad-air-base-38fe3ada54384ebca32845931263a819
Israel would benefit as well from Iran attacking all of its neighbours, except nuclear armed Pakistan. Iraq is suffering too.
Hi Shawn at 3/31/2026 11:18 PM
ReplyDeleteActually before 2008 Australia used the Leopard 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopard_1#Former_operators Small, economical but Australia was highly unlikely to operate alongside Germany or other L1 owners. So the Abrams of the frequent ally the US replaced the L1.
True about Australia gifting the M1A1 Abrams to Ukraine. I've read they are used more in Ukraine as a static tank destroyer than a mobile hence gas guzzling offensive tank. And we are indeed using the later variant.
Hi Shawn at 3/31/2026 11:26 PM
ReplyDeleteMaybe the US suspected Russian or Chinese satellite intelligence would pinpoint the US E-3's new posi - and advise Iran to retarget.
If the E-3 just sat in its old posi, looking broken it seemingly wasn't worth a new missile?