Video here and above, uploaded by SkyNews on Jan 8, 2026. The United States European Command has confirmed it
has "seized" the Marinera oil tanker for violating US sanctions. It
comes after the White House suggested US military action in Greenland is
"always an option"
---
The flag status of the tanker in question, Bella 1-Marinera is highly questionable under international law.
Anonymous
advised 1/07/2026 11:29 PM
“[1.] According to international law, UNCLOS article 92 in this case, a
ship cannot change flag on the move. So much about Kremlin and international
law.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the_Sea#Parties
https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf
Kremlin may
have registered the ship but in case the ship is still in its former register
then the second paragraph is important.
[Pete Comment
Anonymous please note the US, in its exceptionalism, is NOT
PARTY to UNCLOS. See first paragraph of the wiki site https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the_Sea
:
"As of October 2024, 169 sovereign
states and the European Union are parties,[4] including all major powers except
the United States."
Give the above I'll leave it to you to argue US righteousness. I think might over right appeals to Trump more.
Also see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_and_the_United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the_Sea ]
2. A ship which sails under the flags of two or more States, using
them
according to
convenience, may not claim any of the nationalities in question
with respect
to any other State, and may be assimilated to a ship without
nationality.
Without a
flag state any country has the right to stop the ship. Article 90."
Pete Comment
Of course 2025 has shown mighty (nuclear weapon
owning) nations, like China, Russia, the US and Israel define or ignore
international law at will. The flag
status of the tanker in question, Bella 1-Marinera is highly questionable under
international law.
All those highly trained US naval and air mobile forces involved in Operation Marinera can also threaten or frighten Greenland - perhaps morphing into an invasion force.]
For background on Bella 1 - Marinera see
On Dec
12, 2025, before the US invasion of Venezuela, SkyNew's data and economics editor Ed Conway provided an excellent explanation (video above) of the oil industry dynamics driving US actions.
---
According to internaltional law, UNCLOS article 92 in this case, a ship cannot change flag on the move. So much about Kremlin and international law.
ReplyDeletehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the_Sea#Parties
https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf
Kremlin may have registered the ship but in case the ship is still in its former register then the second paragraph is important.
2. A ship which sails under the flags of two or more States, using them
according to convenience, may not claim any of the nationalities in question
with respect to any other State, and may be assimilated to a ship without
nationality.
Without a flag state any country has the right to stop the ship. Article 90.
Thanks Pete. If Trump tries to annex Greenland by force, or even tries to buy it using coercive means, I don't see how NATO can survive as an effective force.
ReplyDeleteThis would raise serious questions for Australia for both ANZUS and Five Eyes, and of course AUKUS. What are they worth if USA is solely transactional? Not much I'd say. Same with USA's "nuclear umbrella".
I repeat my previous view that Australia should shift to building a more powerful but independent defense force of its own, focused on local defense, as per Sam Roggaveen's "Echidna Strategy". Build missiles locally.
Pete this is a fast developing story. Looks like USA has already seized the tankers.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-08/us-intercepts-bella-1-venezuelan-oil-tanker-russia-sub/106208100
Finland also seized a Russian freighter in the Baltic suspected of damaging undersea cables.
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/finland-seizes-ship-sailing-from-russia-after-suspected-cable-sabotage-in-baltic-sea
Hi Anonymous at 1/07/2026 11:29 PM
ReplyDeleteThanks for your legal explanations and links - which I've incorporated into the revised text.
But please note the US, in its exceptionalism, is NOT PARTY to UNCLOS. See fist paragraph of wiki site https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the_Sea :
"As of October 2024, 169 sovereign states and the European Union are parties,[4] including all major powers except the United States."
Give the above I'll leave it to you to argue US righteousness. I think might over right appeals to Trump more.
Regards Pete
Hi Anonymous at 1/08/2026 10:54 AM
ReplyDeleteI agree with your Greenland-NATO points. I'm amazed that American's have been taken in by the Trump huckster at two elections.
Trump claimed to be America First and with it to avoid foreign entanglements. Since then he's backed Israel's many aggressions, bombed Iran and invaded Venezuela.
I'm waiting for the mid-term election results, in Nov 2026, to isolate and weaken Trump.
I've long argued Australia should develop a long range (ICBM) missile capability - see https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/search?q=gilmour
I think Trump will demand higher prepayments from Australia for AUKUS subs - then he, JD Vance or even a Democratic President will renege in 2031.
Regards Pete
Hi Anonymous at 1/08/2026 11:09 AM
ReplyDeleteThanks for the 2 links.
Trump and Hegseth are invading and seizing so fast the American people, Congress and the Supreme Court have given up using American laws and customs to slow Trump-Heg down or to respect democracy.
Regards Pete
Hi Pete,
ReplyDeleteInvading Venezuela won’t stop the major ‘issue’ Trump sees from that country - he thinks getting access to the oil fields will solve everything.
The drug cartels are well funded (mainly American money) and as shown in Mexico, nasty and tenacious. When US troops/security get on the ground the whole area is going to explode with drone attacks.
Hi Shawn
ReplyDeleteYes Trump exploiting Venezuela's oil is not the simplistic godsend he hopes. Apparently some/most US oil companies see the capital costs of fully exploiting this "V" oil might be prohibitive and that current world supply of oil is meeting demand. The latter meaning higher V oil extraction could cause an world oversupply which would lower oil prices to the detriment of oil extracted by US companies in the US.
I agree that US agencies suppressing drug production and supply routes across different Latin American countries could cause all manner of unpredictable outcomes for populations there.
See what some sage (hint :) commented in January 2025 about the Mexican situation - at https://intelnews.org/2025/01/21/01-3382/
"Anonymous says: January 27, 2025 at 06:19
All very disturbing. Perhaps Trump is signalling Mexico’s leaders to crackdown on drug cartels or the US will do it for Mexico.
High flying Reaper drones might be the most effective tool for intelligence gathering to find and “follow” drug lords and even to target them with Hellfire missiles.
The CIA may not want to be involved in any “covert” action program that could become overt public knowledge due to Trump’s indiscrete grandstanding style.
It may fall to the US military (especially SOCOM) [1] the DIA and DEA [2] to provide most of the staff for any covert program.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Special_Operations_Command
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drug_Enforcement_Administration "
Although Trump is so confident of US might that he's now overtly tasking US agencies to fight drug cartels in Latin America.
5th tanker seized:
ReplyDelete"The United States has boarded and seized the motor tanker Olina in the
Caribbean, marking the fifth tanker interdicted in recent weeks as part of what
officials have begun describing as a coordinated campaign targeting
Venezuelan oil shipments and associated sanctions-evasion networks."
Source:
https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/us-boards-olina-fifth-tanker-venezuelan-oil-campaign
Hi Anonymous at 1/10/2026 5:11 AM
ReplyDeleteQuaint they call Olina a "motor tanker". Presumably the alternatives are steam tanker, sailing tanker or oar tanker, in future propelled by Venezuelan galley slaves.
What is the difference between piracy and US forces seizing a tanker? Nothing except US forces used to be lawfully led by a democratic leaders duly authorised by Congress the judiciary and supported by public sentiment.
Pete, seizing sanction “ghost fleet” tankers scores publicity points around the world, especially from the Pro-Ukraine/anti-Putin crowd, but it also sets precedence.
DeleteRussia could start sanctioning grain carriers going out of Ukraine, and they have just enough assets to do a ‘seizure’ in the Mediterranean.
Hi, Shawn, the point about stopping ships with dubious registrations is one thing. Bella-1 was flying a flag of Guyana and the flag state stated the ship wasn't registered. You may not know but the US has the right to control ships under the flag of Panama. Kremlin tries at the moment to get two ships unharmed through the Mediterranean Sea. MYS ZHELANIYA and SPARTA IV are accompanied by destroyer/submarine RFS Severomorsk.
Deletehttps://www.itamilradar.com/2026/01/12/italian-air-force-p-72a-patrols-central-mediterranean-as-russian-flotilla-moves-east-signalling-heightened-maritime-awareness/
I doubt Kremlin have the power right now to size a vessel in the Mediterranean Sea. We will see if these ships get unharmed though the Mediterranean Sea. Seababy anyone?
In case Kremlin starts seizing ships. Just look at the Baltic Sea or Bosporus. Game over for shipping in wintertime for Kremlin.
Regards,
MH
Hi Shawn at 1/11/2026 4:43 PM
ReplyDeleteYes Russia could use that reasoning against Ukraine.
Also China could decide whether to seize Taiwanese chip exports (ships and aircraft). Although such action might disrupt global supply chains - ultimately bad for export nation China.
Cheers Pete
Some apt remarks from an Australian commentator:
ReplyDeleteThe US attack on Venezuela is getting stranger by the day.
It clearly wasn't about regime change and even the logic of seizing oil reserves is looking shaky. It might have been because Donald Trump felt his dancing style was being mocked by the former Venezuelan President.
As disturbing as that is, of even more concern is the US threatening again to acquire Greenland - by force, if necessary. This is completely insane and would destroy NATO, but Trump seems to be obsessed with it.
If the US continues to destroy the existing rules based order, will Australian politicians finally grow a spine or will they find ever more creative ways to grovel to Trump?
Pete2 according to Ockham’s razor we should prefer the simplest explanation for Trump. He loves publicity and the Venezuela raid saw him look like a winner. He might have loved that enough to try similar action again. There may not be any master strategy at play. It might all be short term opportunism.
DeleteI doubt Australia will ever command any Virginia-class submarine. Maybe Australia can buy some used submarines from Canada soon. - "dancing style"? There no style at all.
DeleteRegards,
MHalblaub
Hi Anonymous at 1/13/2026 10:57 PM
ReplyDeleteTrump has so many choices that he could claim a win for a week on:
- pressuring Mexico (especially with Reaper drones with Hellfire missiles) against gangs, cartels drugs.
- invading and regime change in Cuba to remove the Cuban irritating horsefly once and for all
- invading Columbia (less drugs - more oil)
- invading Panama to save it from Russia or Cuba
- aggressively seizing Greenland to "save it" from Russian aggression or offer to buy Greenland "or else"
- occupying a neighbour of Iran (bombing Iran!?) to pressure Iran into becoming a secular republic
The race to fix the world Trump style is on - before Trump's Dementia becomes official.
Signs of dementia in Trump include:
- memory loss (especially recent events),
- confusion with time/place,
- trouble with familiar tasks,
- communication issues (talking and acting inappropriately),
- poor judgment,
- personality changes (like apathy, depression, Aggression) and
- difficulty planning or solving problems.
That's our Donald!
Hi MHalblaub at 1/14/2026 4:42 AM
ReplyDeleteDoes Germany have any second-hand Type 212As it could spare Australia? :)
Cheers Pete
Dear Pete,
Deletehere is a list of several available German submarines:
https://u17.technik-museum.de/en/
https://speyer.technik-museum.de/en/submarine-u9
https://uboot-wilhelm-bauer.de/en/start/ (Oberon-class V 1.0)
The first Type 212A might be available in 2032 after the first Type 212CD is commissioned. In case the problem with the outmost little czar is solved earlier maybe one or two could be leased.
Colombia would be reluctant to sell their Type 206 because you can sink US carriers with these small boats. Turkey may sell some Type 209.
Regards,
MHalblaub
Thanks Matthias (MHalblaub) at 1/15/2026 9:01 PM
ReplyDeleteI announce the RAN has given me ultimate power to purchase submarines until the first Virginia or SSN-AUKUS is ready in 2045.
With that humble duty I choose:
- U-2540 “Wilhelm Bauer” https://uboot-wilhelm-bauer.de/en/history/ of the Kriegsmarine - only 80 years old
- U-17 a Type 206 of the Bundesmarine - launched in 1973, decommissioned 2010 only 52 years old, and
U-9 a Type 205 submarine of the Bundesmarine - launched 1967 - decommissioned 1993 - now a museum ship -- only 58 years old.
In the US tradition Australian SAS will seize Columbia's 2 small U boots and hold its President, Gustavo Petro, hostage on trumped up traffic infringement (speeding) charges.
The Turks are too terrible and friendly :)
Cheers Pete