1. Antarctic ice may be melting increasing the risk of sea level rise and threatening Emperor Penguins https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-21/iconic-antarctic-species-at-risk-amid-antarctic-regime-shift/105676324
2. Jim Chalmers’ Economic
Reform Roundtable achieved little. Except to
freeze the 2,000 page Australian Construction Code until 2029 (excluding many new
updates for essential safety and quality issues) “fast-track housing
approvals” (using unclear “AI”?). No tax decisions but floated tax issues on:
intergenerational inequity; incentives
for business investment; and challenges of us aging population (maybe more tax
on our “aged wealth”). Floated slowing growth of NDIS. Nothing on Immigration.
3. Trump said no US troops for security/peacekeeping in Ukraine - leaving European countries, Canada and Aus to do it. This would be music to Putin's ears. Where these troops will be deployed is as yet unknown. Ukrainian side of Polish border? Or overflights of Ukrainian territory?
4. Many key Australian Federal ministers are retiring to lobbyist jobs that
represent the fossil fuel and gambling industries. Unlike most state governments, the federal
government has no independent regulator to enforce rules around lobbying. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-22/calls-for-greater-scrutiny-over-political-lobbyists/105678762
5. AI supercomputers scanned
10,000s of Indigenous dot paintings to produce quite good dot painting in
seconds – using ChatGPT and Midjourney AI programs. Are the paintings produced
cultural marvels or cultural theft? See lovely AI image below:
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6. In a continuing split Opposition gift
for Australian Labor Prime Minister Albanese - David Littleproud ("Harry Potter" to his mates) reckons his Nationals will again promise unpopular nuclear power policies for the 2028 election. The Liberals, led by centrist Sussan Ley, don’t like nuclear
or the National Party's Barnaby "redneck" Joyce's no net zero bill. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-23/nationals-leader-david-littleproud-says-nuclear-power/105689740
7.
Beware Australian stock market rises eg. CBA shares are too high - and may be set for a bubble drop. What goes up and up can go down quickly. Also US and Australian share geared super
funds might go down surprisingly. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-25/stock-market-valuations-soar-as-asx-wall-st-hit-records/105687206
8. “Dramatic rebound for southern right whale numbers along Great Australian Bight” [and maybe on our east coast] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-22/southern-right-whale-births-increase-great-australian-bight/105678146.
Pete on matters submarine interesting that the RCN announced today they had shortlisted the German (Type 212 CD) and Korean (KSIII) options for their long range SSK program. This might form a useful plan B to AUKUS for Australia. I find it encouraging that they are rating the KSIII as a worthy competitor for the Type 212 CD. The KSIII has a range >10,000nm, so may suit the RAN.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.canada.ca/en/public-services-procurement/news/2025/08/government-of-canada-advances-to-next-step-in-canadian-patrol-submarine-project-procurement.html
Dear Scott,
DeleteI want to add the German view on the matter of Canadian submarines:
https://www.hartpunkt.de/kanada-deutsche-tkms-und-koreanische-hanwah-als-moegliche-lieferanten-fuer-u-boote-identifiziert/
Isn't AUKUS already plan B für RAN?
Regards,
MHalblaub
Meanwhile, India buys German:
Delete"According to information published by the Times of India on August 24, 2025,
the Indian government has officially cleared Germany’s Type 214 submarine as
the winning design for its long-delayed Project 75 program. The approval
allows state-owned Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited (MDL) to begin
contract negotiations with ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) for the
construction of six advanced Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) submarines, in
a deal worth over 70,000 crore rupees, or approximately $8.4 billion. This
decision comes after more than six months of delay and firmly excludes
Spain’s competing S-80 design from further consideration."
See:
https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2025/india-chooses-german-type-214-submarine-over-spanish-s-80-to-counter-chinese-and-pakistani-fleets
Hi Scott at 8/26/2025 10:23 PM and Matthias "MHalblaub" at 8/27/2025 1:04 AM
ReplyDeleteMy pick would be the Hanwha Ocean KSS-III:
- it is already operating https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_212CD_submarine#List_of_boats
while the 212CD is only in the build stage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_212CD_submarine#List_of_boats
- has more developed, already operational Lithium batteries
- has VLS
- can be more quickly produced in South Korea
- meanwhile Type 212CD production is already booked out to 2035 for the German and Norwegian navies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_212CD_submarine#List_of_boats
- many more mentions of the KSS-III in the Canadian mainstream and specialist media
- Australia shares the Pacific Ocean and a common opponent (China) with South Korea, making the KSS-III a better Plan B for Australia.
Cheers Pete
Hi Pete,
DeleteAustralia is now entering into a new era with Japan, including an industrial partnership with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries for the production of the Modified Mogami frigates. This could be further extended to leasing the first six Soryu-class boats to the RAN as a ‘stopgap’ in the 2030s until the SSN-AUKUS arrives.
JS Soryu will have spent 20 years in commission by 2030, so she will be due for an MLU where she could receive a new power system based on the Taigei-class, replacing her conventional batteries and AIP system for lithium ion batteries.
https://cimsec.org/japans-submarine-industrial-base-and-infrastructure-unique-and-stable/
I have always advocated a mixed SSN/SSK fleet for the RAN, not a “one size fits all” SSN fleet as this would make it difficult for these boats to visit and exercise with Australia’s ASEAN and South Pacific neighbours.
MHI and Kawasaki Heavy Industries are currently building the Taigei-class, delivering one boat each year, and there is some speculation that after the 10th boat of the class (which should be delivered before 2030), the Japanese government will switch to a new design that incorporates VLS.
R&D on this new class began in 2023, so if Australia was considering a full Plan B with new production, this design could be ideal - both MHI and KHI could accelerate their current submarine production cycle to build two boats for Australia, then help with the necessary Technology transfer to ASC.
Hi Pete,
Deleteyou may remember the problems with Collins-class. In my opinion the root cause for the problems were Kockums inabilities to transfer knowledge to Australia. Canada wants to build except for two boats the remaining boats at home. South Korea has never overseen a licence built submarine. If there is a real need for VLS then South Korea should just build all submarines at home. Has Canada a real needs for VLS? What do the Canadians want to hit?
The KSS-III is about 1/3 heavier than 212CD. Canada would roughly get 3 KSS-III or 4 212CDs for the same money.
I don't see a big development risk for Canada in respect to 212CD already in production.
KSS-III is for sure a good plan C for Australia.
Regards,
MHalblaub
Hi MHalblaub at 8/28/2025 8:46 PM
ReplyDeleteMost of the issues you raise are for the Canadians to decide when they select the KSS-IIIs or 212CDs in 2 to 3 years.
If they decide to build 10 of the 12 in Canada they'll suffer the Collins' disease ie. over time and over budget. Canada will build 4 for the price of 10 if built in South Korea (SK) or Germany. Canada will only be able to afford 6 in all rather than 12.
VLS provide a nuclear armed option for SK and nuclear armed VLS have been selected by Israel for its new TKMS Dolphin 3s.
Of course SSKs rather than SSNs are unsafe under ice.
Yes KSS-IIIs will be a good plan B or C for Australia.
Regards Pete
Hi Shawn at 8/27/2025 1:50 PM
ReplyDeleteI think Australia needs proof that the Virginias under AUKUS won't be delivered before embarking on a new SSK.
Australia has been regularly unable to field more than one 56 crewman Collins at any one time. This is let alone a mixed LOTEd Collins, Virginia (costing A$5 Billion this year and future years) AND a new SSK (be it NG, TKMS, MHI/KHI or KSS-III).
Other than Russian SSNs for India, subs aren't leased, and there is the political necessity of building SSKs and SSN-AUKUS (in the 2040s) at Osborne (curse).
The Osborne late and overbudget curse was what originally made Soryus unviable for Australia in 2014-16 and made NG Attack class unviable in 2021.
A mixed submarine fleet would pile on the inefficiencies onto the Osborne curse.
If only the curse could be broken with overseas builds. Although US or UK made SSNs are very expensive while their SSBNs (built into the 2040s) have priority.
French made SSNs would be great if they were a serious option.
Cheers Pete