October 29, 2024

China Upset By NK Involvement in Ukraine

So North Korea (NK) soldiers are training in Russia to fight alongside Russian troops against Ukrainian forces. If this is to give NK troops infantry and tank  battlefield experience this is bad news indeed for South Korea (SK).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_involvement_in_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#North_Korea_2

Also bad news is NK’s closer relationship with Russia. The last time good Russian-NK relations occurred NK invaded SK. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War#Prelude_to_war_(1950)

NK tank warfare hasn’t been practised since around 1950 and NK infantry since 1953. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War#Course_of_the_war  

So lack of practice for up to 74 years needs to be made good as a prerequisite to NK invading SK. Also NK can upgrade its aging tank stocks and perhaps receive new Russian tanks, with Russian lessons learnt on the Ukrainian front. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Korean_People%27s_Army_Ground_Force#Armour

This time NK also has thermonuclear weapons, so can feel more confident that an SK (or allied) ground counter-invasion into NK might not occur. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#2017 

Furthermore the Kim dynasty is unbalanced, as usual.
Kim III may also coolly calculate that the West (especially the US) is distracted be two current wars: in Ukraine and Israel-Gaza-Lebanon-Iran
.

Into this dark mix is the possibility Trump may win the November 5 Election. This makes the situation in NK-SK and the two current wars more volatile.
 

China is very unhappy that Putin has connected the Ukraine War with NK troop involvement. Here and below is the best commentary I've seen about implications for China including pressure for nuclearization in SK and Japan.


October 25, 2024

GD-EB CEO Announces Virginia SSN Production Will Slowdown

Baird Maritime reported October 24, 2024, at https://www.bairdmaritime.com/security/naval/naval-submersibles/us-submarine-production-to-be-scaled-back-due-to-delay-in-component-deliveries

“US submarine production to be scaled back due to delay in component deliveries”

“The lead contractor of the US Navy's submarine program has confirmed that there will be a decrease in the rate of production of the vessels due to supply chain-related issues.

During a recent third quarter earnings call with investors, Phebe Novakovic, CEO of General Dynamics (GD), said that GD's Electric Boat division would scale back its manufacture of Columbia-class and Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines to adjust to "late deliveries from major component suppliers."

Novakovic remarked that it is "neither good for the boat over time nor cost" to speed up the manufacture of only some of the sections of each submarine only for the work to stop temporarily until the other essential components are finally delivered.

Novakovic assured that the slowing down of submarine production would not affect current delivery projections, which already take the anticipated delays into account.

The scaling back of submarine production is the latest issue to be faced by the US naval shipbuilding sector. Earlier this year, Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) found that workers at its Newport News Shipbuilding (NNS) division had not been applying the correct welding techniques on some of the submarines and aircraft carriers under construction at its facilities in Virginia.

HII said it found no evidence that the faulty welds were done with any malicious intent. However, the House Armed Services Committee has called on the Department of the Navy and the Department of Defense to provide answers and a plan for how both the Department of the Navy and NNS will protect US Navy vessels against knowingly faulty work.”

October 24, 2024

Probably No SSN-AUKUS Hull Building in Australia Till 2040s

 Hi Shawn. Regarding your 10/07/2024 9:04 PM comment

I reckon that ASC could start contributing to the program early, perhaps by building hull modules for all boats in Osborne as a 'sub-contractor' while Barrow focuses on building the [reactor] rear half. Shipping by semi-submersible heavy lift ships should be no issue, though an AUKUS escort task force will be necessary.”

The problems with such a proposal are many:

INTEGRATING US COMBAT SYSTEM FOR AUSTRALIA'S SSN-AUKUS

BAE would need to fully design the whole submarine, hull and contents including integration of a future US combat system, which dictates hull dimensions, before the front hull could be constructed.

It is already a given that Australia will be using the future system, an evolution of the US developed AN/BYG-1 combat system, already used on the Collins. This allows current and future Australian submarines to interoperate with US submarines. The US being Australia’s closest ally. 

The combat system are the weapons, sensors, databases and other equipment used on current and future Australian submarines. These need to be integrated, after probably more than 10 years of intense UK and US  negotiations, within the Australian version SSN-AUKUS hull design. Taking even longer the US might use the combat system solution for the post Virginia SSN(X) which may only be designed by 2040.

See https://gdmissionsystems.com/shipboard-integration-and-combat-systems/tactical-control-systems   

“General Dynamics Mission Systems develops the Tactical Control System (TCS) for every submarine in the U.S. and Australian Navies. TCS ingests data from all of the submarine’s sensor and communication systems to provide a common operational picture. TCS provides sensor data fusion, target motion analysis, tactical situational awareness and command decision tools to enable the watch standers and commanding officers to execute their mission… General Dynamics delivers TCS as part of the AN/BYG-1 combat system which integrates the tactical control, weapons/payload control, information assurance and tactical network subsystems.”

For the hardware weapons portion of the new combat system Australia might use a new (post-Virginia) vertical launch system (VLS), not even invented yet. This may be configured for larger hypersonic missiles than the Tomahawk standard used in the Virginias. 

The post Virginia future SSN(X) Combat System which might be adopted for Australia’s version of the SSN-AUKUS may use taller US hypersonic missiles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Range_Hypersonic_Weapon (currently of unknown length/height). They may require a larger beamed SSN-AUKUS than the UK version SSN-AUKUS. 

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SSN(X)-class_submarineThe [US] Navy currently expects delivery of the first boat [SSN(X)] in 2042." This may dictate a later than 2042 design for the Australian version of the SSN-AUKUS. 

FUTURE REACTOR OF UNKNOWN DIMENTIONS

The height/beam of the rear-reactor hull dictates the beam of the front half of the hull. This means front and rear hull need to be sized and fitted together in the UK before any Australian work could be done producing front hull sections.

A future and different version of the PWR3 (probably smaller than the Dreadnought SSBN's) needs to be built to squeeze into a SSN-AUKUS hull. Or, taking even longer, even a totally undeveloped PWR4 of unknown height dimensions would need to be totally designed and completed before the SSN-AUKUS’s forward hull could be designed. 

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Royce_PWR#Future

SUBMARINE WORKFORCE TRAINING AND SCARCITY

Australia retired most of its specialist Collins submarine hull building workforce more than 20 years ago. Australia has no experience building hulls for nuclear submarines. I understand the latter hulls (including their constituent sections) have much tighter tolerances than needed for the Collins. 

SSN-AUKUS hulls would also likely have to withstand deeper dives than Collins hulls. This might mean the pressure hull sections would be thicker and use different still alloys than Australia used for the Collins 2-3 decades ago.

A complete Australian hull building workforce would need to be trained up in Britain and/or British trainers come to Australia and/or a British workforce comes to Australia. But Britain has a hull building workforce shortage even for its through to 2040 Dreadnought SSBN project, let alone releasing large numbers of hull builder/trainers early for an Australian SSN-AUKUS hull building project. The UK has also had major problems keeping enough Astute SSNs operational which might be partially due to a shortage of submarine maintenance manpower.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dreadnought-class_submarine#Boats_of_the_class

The US also has severe submarine workforce shortages. Their highest priority is building Columbia-class SSBNs through to "2042". See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbia-class_submarine This is partly why there are not enough workers for Virginia production, maintenance or repair or to work on the future SSN(X) project.

All pretty grim.

Harris Supports Ukraine: Trump Less Likely

Hi Anonymous. Regarding your comment at 10/24/2024 7:07 AM 

I think if Harris wins the November 5 Election she will continue the Biden policy and scale of US and NATO leadership support for Ukraine. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris_2024_presidential_campaign#NATO_and_Ukraine

But if Trump wins he may broker a peace treaty (mainly in consultation with Putin) that permits Russia to keep Crimea and much of Russia's gains in eastern Ukraine. See the first paragraph of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2024_presidential_campaign#Foreign_policy

Trump's covert understanding with Putin might permit Russia to subsequently expand its eastern Ukraine gains in a year or two - with Russia eventually taking Kiev. Trump would give little or no political or materiel support to Ukraine to resist this. Also Trump's US would no longer lead other NATO countries in their support of Ukraine.

We'll see.

Cheers Pete 

October 23, 2024

SubMatts' Indian Sources Go To Ground?

COMMENTS

It is most odd that Submarine Matters' Indian sources and commenters for years, Gessler and Ghalib Kabir became inactive/disappeared in early-mid 2024.

Most odd that this was at the same time that it was publicized in the Australian media that the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) had "kicked out" (persona non gratared (PNG'd) "a nest of Indian spies" 4 years before, in 2020. The Indian spies had apparently been attempting to steal Australian classified defence information "about sensitive defence projects" probably including submarines and missiles. 

I did suspect that in view of the situation above the Indian government kindly suggested to Gessler and Ghalib Kabir that they consider toning down activity on SubMatts - I may be wrong in that.

Notably this blog, Submarine Matters, discusses overt facts and views in great length about Australian submarine and missile issues. 

I have an idea sophisticated countries (eg. India) utilises overt intelligence gathering to zero in on requirements (information gaps) for classified intelligence gathering.

ARTICLE


"India's Modi government operated 'nest of spies' in Australia before being disrupted by ASIO"

"Indian spies were kicked out of Australia after being caught trying to steal secrets about sensitive defence projects and airport security, as well as classified information on Australia's trade relationships.

The so-called foreign "nest of spies" disrupted by the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) in 2020 was also accused of closely monitoring Indians living here and developing close relationships with current and former politicians.

ASIO Director-General Mike Burgess first alluded to the spy ring in his annual threat assessment delivered in 2021, but, he did not disclose which country was behind the activity, saying to do so would be an "unnecessary distraction".

"The spies developed targeted relationships with current and former politicians, a foreign embassy and a state police service," Mr Burgess said during his March 2021 speech inside ASIO's Canberra headquarters.

"They monitored their country's diaspora community. They tried to obtain classified information about Australia's trade relationships.

"They asked a public servant to provide information on security protocols at a major airport." 

Mr Burgess also detailed how the "nest of spies" had successfully cultivated and recruited an Australian government security clearance holder who had access to "sensitive details of defence technology".

National security and government figures have now confirmed to the ABC that India's foreign intelligence service was responsible for the "nest of spies", and "a number" of Indian officials were later removed from Australia by the Morrison government.

The Washington Post this week also reported that two members of the Indian intelligence agency known as the "Research and Analysis Wing" (RAW) were expelled from Australia in 2020 following an ASIO counter-intelligence operation.

Details of New Delhi's clandestine operations in Australia have emerged as western allies grow increasingly alarmed over the actions of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government, which is accused of an assassination in Canada last September.

In an interview with the ABC while visiting the United States in November, [2023?] Mr Burgess declined to say whether the Indian government's foreign operations had caused any concern for ASIO back in Australia.

"I don't comment on any actions of any government, and you shouldn't read anything into that, I can assure you though if we saw acts of foreign interference or plotting for that, we will deal with it," Mr Burgess told the ABC [in November 2023?].

Further pressed on whether he had ever been involved in the expulsion of Indian personnel from Australia, the ASIO director-general again declined to comment.

"We don't comment on specific operational matters but of course, from time-to-time ASIO will discover undeclared intelligence officers who are operating in our country and through our own actions or asking government to help, people can and do leave this country as a result of being found out."

India is a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue alongside the United States, Japan and Australia, and is considered a crucial defence partner in the Indo-Pacific where concerns over China's military build-up are growing.

In 2022, when delivering his next Annual Threat Assessment, Mr Burgess described how nations that were considered friendly were still trying to conduct espionage against Australia. [Presumably pretty much every Embassy and High Commission there?]

"Multiple countries are seeking to conduct espionage against us - and not just those countries that might be considered our traditional adversaries," he then said.

"In some instances, espionage is conducted by countries we consider friends — friends with sharp elbows and voracious intelligence requirements."

Government sources have told the ABC that friendly nations believed to be particularly active with espionage operations in Australia include Singapore, South Korea, Israel and India.

During the 2024 Annual Threat Assessment, also delivered inside ASIO headquarters, senior diplomats and ambassadors from Singapore, South Korea, Israel and India were all invited guests to hear Mr Burgess speak.

The ABC has approached the Indian High Commission and ASIO for comment, but both declined to respond to specific questions about the "nest of spies" operation."

October 21, 2024

Israel Bombing Iran - Until after US Election?


82% of Iran’s export revenues come from oil and gas. 

If Israel hit Iran’s oil and gas refineries in the Persian Gulf Iran (in revenge against  the West) would probably attempt to close the Persian Gulf with land based missiles and drones aimed at tankers. 

In 2022 the seven Persian Gulf oil produces produced 32% of the world’s oil. They are Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/where-our-oil-comes-from.php  

If the Persian Gulf was blocked by Iranian responses world oil and gas prices would increase sharply to the detriment of Harris's campaign. 

This would be bad for Harris going into the 5 November Election as US voters would resent paying much more for "gas" (what Americans call petrol) at the pump. Would inflation figures would also grow significantly.

The current ailing Biden-but youthful Harris VP Administration would be blamed for all this - as the US Government is supposed to keep Israel and Iran under control in line with US national interests.

This may be why Israel might be waiting until after the US election to attack Iran’s oil/gas refineries.  

October 20, 2024

US Election Polls & Predictions 20 Oct: Trump to Win?

Who wins the November 5th US Presidential Election has a major impact on Australian foreign and defence policies (including AUKUS) and on US trade policies. 

Kamala Harris’s lead over Trump has declined from 2.7% on October 15th to 1.4% ten days later. That is less than the standard statistical survey error of 4%.

Hence no candidate is clearly or statistically ahead.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Harris_and_Trump

538 Electoral College votes are up for grabs, So Harris or Trump need 270 votes to win. On 25 October Harris has 226 fairly sure votes; Trump has 219 fairly sure votes. Swing state votes are 93. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Electoral_College_forecasts

Almost all 43 of the 50 US states vote for the same parties election after election. So it is up to the 7 swing states to decide the Election. Trump leads in all swing states according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index 

expressed at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Electoral_College_forecasts

But the PVI may be inaccurate.


Swing states are
Pennsylvania 19 votes; North Carolina 16 ; Georgia 16; Michigan 15 ; Arizona 11; Wisconsin 10; and Nevada 6 votes totalling the 93 swing state votes. 

Given the tiny margins above between Harris and Trump, by most measures, the wide margins, published by betting agencies seem extraordinary. Perhaps the wide margins are based on PVI methodology. On 21 Oct Sportsbet tips Trump to win 1.61 (Harris 2.25) https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/us-politics/2024-us-presidential-election-winning-party-5621990

TAB reinforces Sportsbet figures with Trump to win 1.60 (Harris 2.35) https://www.tab.com.au/sports/betting/Politics/competitions/US%20Election

Conclusion

Apart from relying on the PVI the numbers are so close it is unlikely the election will have a clear Presidential winner on 5 November. 

More likely is several days of postal vote counting in the swing state of Nevada (a swing state permitting postal votes) and then a few days of recounting in all 7 swing states will arrive at the winner. 

October 12, 2024

An NK SSBN Commissioned Within 10 years? Maybe.

Hi Shawn at 10/11/2024 6:26 PM 

It is interesting that this October 8, 2024 South Korean (SK) article https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20241008003451315 about a North Korean (NK) nuclear sub program doesn't make mention of the alleged (likely top heavy) September 2023 SSB. 

See my September 10, 2023 article at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2023/09/nks-new-ssb-missile-firing-via-test.html 

Both NK subs are very similar. Or maybe they are one and the same?!

Impoverished NK devotes so much attention and money to its nuclear triad, that the possibility of a relatively quickly constructed NK SSBN, with Russian help, should be treated seriously.

Perhaps Russia is helping NK build a nuclear sub as barter for all the ammunition NK is donating to Russia's Ukrainian war stocks. 

Against this I have a feeling China would be nervous about unpredictable NK not only having thermonuclear weapons [1] but having the most effective platform of a nuclear triad, an SSBN, to launch such weapons.

The possibility of an NK SSBN in the medium term could be used by SK as political ammunition to persuade the US to permit SK to have its own nuclear propulsion  capability. [2] Nuclear weapons for SK would be another matter. 

This is perhaps why SK's Parliamentary Rep. Kang Dae-sik of the ruling People Power Party was permitted to speak on the record about such a sensitive nuclear topic on 
October 8, 2024 at https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20241008003451315 

[1] See 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#2017  

"On September 3, 2017, North Korea claimed to have successfully tested a thermonuclear bomb, also known as a hydrogen bomb. Corresponding seismic activity similar to an earthquake of magnitude 6.3 was reported by the [US Geological Service] USGS, making the blast around 10 times more powerful than previous detonations by the country. Later the bomb yield was estimated to be
250 kilotons, based on further study of the seismic data. The test was reported to be "a perfect success" by North Korean authorities."

[2] See “LEU More Acceptable for South Korean Nuclear Submarines” of October 14, 2020 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2020/10/leu-more-acceptable-for-south-korean.html

October 7, 2024

HMNZS Manawanui runs aground and sinks in Samoa

6 October 2024 - The Royal New Zealand Navy's Specialist Dive and Hydrographic Survey ship HMNZS Manawanui A09 has sunk off the Upolu inland in Samoa

image: NZDF

According to the Royal New Zealand Navy's media centre, HMNZS Manawanui [displacing 5,741 tonnes full load] was conducting a reef survey on the 5th of October near the southern coast of Upolu, Samoa, when the ship grounded at 6.45pm in heavy seas. The vessel tried to extract itself but continued to list until the command to Abandon Ship was issued at 7.52pm. HMNZS Manawanui later caught fire early the next morning, capsizing and sinking at 9am on the 6th of October 2024.

All 75 people onboard, including crew, passengers and civilians, were evacuated via lifeboats and inflatable rafts, one of which was flipped due to the heavy swells. Two crew members sustained injuries that required hospitalisation. 



HMNZS Manawanui was a multirole support ship that was purchased for US$103 million by New Zealand in 2018 from Østensjø, where the vessel served as the MV Edda Fonn (launched in 2003) survey vessel in the North Sea offshore energy industry. After refit and conversion into a diving support vessel by Orskov Yard, HMNZ Manawanui was commissioned into the RNZN in 2019, where it provided a range of missions, from diver support, coastal and harbour survey, underwater explosive ordnance disposal, to underwater search and recovery. 

In its brief five years of service, HMNZ Manawanui participated in a range of activities, from RIMPAC 2020 to disaster relief and WW2 UBX clearance in the South Pacific.

While the hull loss of a US$100 million converted commercial ship (without crew casualties) may seem a small matter to some navies, for the resource-limited Royal New Zealand Navy, this is a major issue, as crew shortage (due to a recruitment and retention crises) has seen three RNZN ships docked, leaving New Zealand with five active naval vessels.

Currently, the New Zealand Navy has crews that operate two ANZAC-class frigates (though HMNZS Te Mana is currently undergoing a communication upgrade in an extended maintenance period), an inshore patrol vessel, a single fleet replenishment ship, and one multirole vessel. Two corvette-sized offshore patrol vessels and a second inshore patrol boat are laid up at Davenport Naval Base

According to a Defense News article in Jan 2023, the RNZN had 2,117 people, with a 16.5% retention rate at the time. This matter further compounds New Zealand's responsibilities to its South Pacific neighbours as well as enforcement activities in the Southern Ocean. The New Zealand government will be cutting its defence budget by 6.6% to US$3.03 billion in 2025, despite publicly speaking of joining AUKUS as a Pillar II partner and cooperating with Australia under the ANZUS treaty.

Update 8 October 2024:

HMS Tamar, which has been stationed in the Pacific for the last two years, is now in the area providing wreck security while HMNZS Canterbury prepares to depart NZ with salvage equipment. The wreck lies in 30m of water and an initial diver survey has been conducted.

King Charles III will soon arrive in Samoa for a state visit and to attend CHOGM on the 21-26 October, so we can expect RAN naval units in the vicinity to provide security for dignitaries from 56 Commonwealth countries.