April 1, 2024

India Has 2 Stage Thermonuclear Weapons

For some years my friend and long distance mental sparing partner, Ghalib Kabir, have been debating how far India has progressed in thermonuclear weapons.

Ghalib last argued here
on March 22, 2024:

“My sense is Agni V very likely could sport 3 x 60-80 kt boosted fission warheads and a number of decoys. Not a bad start. I did hear 3 is likely the realistic number due to certain pertaining issues (likely miniaturization, warhead design-> yield related issues)

I know you set store by Israel or Russia sharing data for Indian 'cold tests'... however such a thing is unlikely as such a support would be 'too juicy' for known India baiters in the western and local 'non proliferation menagerie' to let go.”

+++++++++++++

I (Pete) counter-argue:

I recognize it is part of the deal India made, with the Western powers, that India (at the public level) minimises its achievements in nuclear device progress.

This was one of the terms the West required when it generally accepted India, by 2010, as a semi-legal member of the nuclear weapons Club.

I have heard offline that there is no way India's top political leadership would permit India's nuclear program to lag 57 years behind India's largest opponent, China's. Meaning it is 57 years since 1967, the year China tested a three-staged thermonuclear device - see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Test_No._6

Boosted fission weapons alone are simply old school, with several downsides. Two stage thermonuclear devices can be miniaturised far smaller - with higher yields - and permit more MIRVs than alleged 3 x 60-80 kt boosted fission warheads.

See https://web.archive.org/web/20171024045228/http://pib.nic.in:80/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=52814  
"The two-stage thermonuclear device, with a fusion-boosted fission trigger as the first stage and with the features needed for integration with delivery vehicles, was tested at the controlled yield of 45 kt and had the purpose of developing nuclear weapons with yields up to around 200 kt [on May 11, 1998 as "Shakti-I" being one of five nuclear tests at Operation Shakti/Pokhran-II] .


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pokhran-II#Specifications_and_detonation
Shakti I was “A thermonuclear device yielding 45 kt, but designed for up to 200 kt. The yield of this device was deliberately kept 
low in order to avoid civilian damage and to eliminate the possibility of a [dangerous and detectable] radioactive leak." 

Looking at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermonuclear_weapon#India
"After the Pokhran-II tests, Rajagopala Chidambaram, former chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission of India said that India has the capability to build thermonuclear bombs of any yield at will." [Actual quote above from here https://www.nytimes.com/1998/05/18/world/nuclear-anxiety-the-overview-india-detonated-a-hydrogen-bomb-experts-confirm.html ]

 


Diagrams courtesy Brittanica.
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Conclusion

I’ve now come to the conclusion that we are both right. The “boosted fission” weapon Ghalib talks of was the Primary Stage setting off a Secondary Sage of an Indian Two stage thermonuclear device at the “Shakti-I” Test. See diagrams above.

5 comments:

  1. April Fool's Day joke?


    U.S. Navy Submarine First In World Fitted With Silent Caterpillar Drive:

    https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/04/u-s-navy-submarine-first-in-world-fitted-with-silent-caterpillar-drive/

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Anonymous at 4/02/2024 7:09 AM

    Yes indeed U.S. Navy Submarine First In World Fitted With Silent Caterpillar Drive: at
    https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/04/u-s-navy-submarine-first-in-world-fitted-with-silent-caterpillar-drive/

    is an April Fool's Day joke.

    Such a major future propulsion type as Magnetohydrodynamic drive (MHD) would not be retrofitted to recently commissioned USS Montana (SSN 794). This is a new build technology for a future class of sub - a generation, at a minimum, AFTER the Columbias.

    Also strong hints in the text https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/04/u-s-navy-submarine-first-in-world-fitted-with-silent-caterpillar-drive/ :

    "Instead of a traditional propeller at the stern, the new propulsion will be entirely within the submarine’s hull. According to British experts the only external clues are likely to be the water intake doors in the [BOW ?!]. These will resemble torpedo tube shutters but larger, approximately the diameter of a submarine launched ballistic missile. But mounted horizontally, which is unusual for those missiles."

    You'd need a vastly larger mythical new sub like he Red October https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hunt_for_Red_October#Plot_summary " It is equipped with a cutting-edge silent propulsion system, known as a "caterpillar drive", that makes audio detection by passive sonar extremely difficult"

    I wonder if Naval News has picked the article date April 1, 2024 :)

    Cheers Pete

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Pete,

    I would be the happiest if India had staged thermonuclear weapons that are MIRVed. However. between 1998 and today, strong arguments abound the Indian defense and nuclear community.

    I lean towards the fact that on May 11, 1998, the 2 staged thermonuke's stage 2 or secondary was a 'fizzle'. K Santhanam, one of the core members of the pokhran test is on record stating the test was a failure. I am attaching an article for your reference.

    https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/could-a-us-nuclear-test-be-a-fortuitous-opportunity-for-india-66831

    If in the unlikely event, 'friendly nations' passed on 'data' for India to perfect its 2 stage nuke, good for us in India.... however, I maintain my skepticism on the 'transfer of data' to have actually occurred. The rationale doesn't hold up even today.

    ReplyDelete
  4. More on the April Fool's day joke:

    Media Outlets Sunk By April Fool’s Prank of the Navy’s New
    “Caterpillar Drive” Stealth Submarine

    "In fairness, given the nature of today’s technological
    progress, which frequently resembles science fiction,
    it’s understandable why some could be misled by Naval
    News’s seemingly credible announcement."

    See:

    https://thedebrief.org/media-outlets-sunk-by-april-fools-prank-of-the-navys-new-caterpillar-drive-stealth-submarine/

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi GhalibKabir at 4/02/2024 3:47 PM

    The 2 stage weapon needed to be of lower explosive power because it was tested in a small ground near villages. So the second stage could have been technically a fizzle indeed but intentional.

    Also Santhanam could be maintaining India's post 1998 deal with the West that India would minimise its nuclear weapon advances to reduce international criticism concerning India's illegal weapons power status under the NPT. The West did not want to encourage other nuclear aspirants to break the NPT rules. Maintain the fizzle story also symbolises reaching thermonuclear status is not easy for aspirants.

    No further data needed to be "transferred" to India from existing thermonuclear powers. Once India engineered its intentional fizzle in 1998 subsequent supercomputer simulation advances would have been sufficient for India to confidently complete a reliable 2-stage design without further hot testing.

    ReplyDelete

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