Delayed Orkas? TKMS, Naval Group & Saab: Iranian "AIP"!

Shawn C, on Thursday March 14, 2024 (just before the Dutch Orka decision) commented offline:

TKMS MATTERS

https://youtu.be/hI5md1HOBT4?si=F0Qdw2SlPtG5RFrY

Note: TKMS just built a new sub building facility in Kiel. This will allow TKMS to simultaneously produce:

• 2-3 submarines a year - not sure if he meant "build more subs"
• Allows for the production of bigger boats – Type 212CD and 'bespoke customer requirements' (Which I thought was a hint at Israel's future Dakar class)
• Planted questions about TKMS employment and supply to TKMS sales director.
• Elaborated on 'orphan designs' - maybe based on Dolphin class experience? 
• Production increase - can ramp up - speaks about Dutch production partner.
• New TKMS hall improves production by 20% - to new submarine projects a year? RSS Invincible took 5 years to build (ordered 2013, construction began 2014, launched in 2019)
• Uses Microsoft HoloLens for AR enhancement to production. https://www.microsoft.com/en-au/hololens 

Further on TKMS Production capacity:

• TKMS: Dolphin ended 2023.   
• Singapore's Invincible class program will be completed 2024.
• The 4 Norwegian and 2 German Type  212CD class started in 2023.
• Israel’s 3 future Dakar-class program was confirmed August 2022, so should now be in production. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dakar-class_submarine
  
• Obvious question about [the not yet finalized] Dutch contest. If extended Type 212CDs were built that would make the Type 212CDs a 10 submarine class. 
  
  

NAVAL GROUP MATTERS

[Pete comment: Given the Netherlands has not finally chosen Naval Group’s (NG) Orka until the Dutch Parliament agrees...] Note: Between the three sub builders TKMS, NG and Saab. As a rough estimate, all three main shipbuilders (I have not assessed their Dutch partners) should have available construction facilities in 2027 for this program. 

All three are in active production of SSKs but NG is in India and Brazil.
[Pete comment: DCNS/NG last built Scorpenes in Cherboug up to 2009 along with 2 SSNs (in 2009) but not simultaneously with SSBNs. So Cherbourg production facilities (already for the remaining SSNs and future SSBNs) might be inadequate if Orkas also need to be built at Cherbourg? This might cause unexpected delays in the Orka Project. Will the Orkas need to be built elsewhere in France or in the Netherlands?] 
I do not think NG will want to divert French SNLE 3G/SSBN production.

Suffren-class - the last in class NG Casabianca estimated 2029 delivery - 3 boats are concurrently in production, with the next two expected in 2025 and 2027. With the Rubis-class Saphir-Perle also returned to service in 2023, this may mean that NG has clear yard space (and clear Barracuda production facilities), though the SNLE 3G SSBN production was supposed to start at the end of 2023. [apparently the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNLE_3G has not even been laid down yet!]

SAAB MATTERS

[Pete comment: As Saab has no foreign orders Saab’s loss of the Orka-class competition is a bitter blow. Saab may become involved in Australia's Collins Life of Type Extension (LOTE) from 2026 but that is not certain.]

Saab: 2 x A26 Blekinge-class are in production, with expected delivery in 2027 & 2028, last Gotland refit should be completed. [Maybe 2 more Blekinges will be ordered in the 2030s?].

SINGAPORE NAVY MATTERS

Wow! This is fast! 30 min before I saw this I was at the Singapore Ministry of Defense (Mindef) site checking press releases! 

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/03/singapore-cuts-steel-on-its-first-multirole-combat-vessel-mrcv/

Not out yet on Singapore news sites.

8,000 ton Multi Role Combat Vessel (MRCV) frigate with a 4 year delivery date... very ambitious.
 

“HOT” IRANIAN AIP OFFER

Does anyone want to buy Iranian AIP [on a 600 tonne Fateh-class submarine] ?

https://www.navalnews.com/event-news/dimdex-2024/2024/03/iran-unveils-aip-version-of-fateh-class-submarine-at-dimdex-2024/