Trump's choice of Vance as his Vice Presidential running mate may increase the possibility of US isolationism over Ukraine ie. little or no more US aid for Ukraine. A Trump win on November 5, 2024 may further lead to Trump "the Statesman" brokering a Russo-Ukraine "peace" treaty that favours Russia's possession of Ukraine. Trump has a track record in his first presidency of siding with Putin.
Trump clearly does not to respect the usual pro-NATO alliance solidarity values that would favour Ukrainian independence. Instead the following US national self-interest and economic priorities may appeal to a second Trump Administration:
1. The US State, Defense departments and intelligence community might remind Trump that the war is eroding Russian military and political power. The Ukraine war may be costing Russia about US$200 million/day and weakening Russia’s army and navy.
2. Western sanctions on Russian energy sales are leading to international energy scarcity, with consequent energy price rises and higher profits for US companies including their profits on exports to European countries. This boosts US Government revenue from taxation on US energy companies.
3. Another factor in Ukraine's favour is that the Russo-Ukraine war benefits US arms companies selling weapons and ammunition to the US Defense Department which then gifts these items to Ukraine.
4. More generally what is good for the US military-industrial complex is good for the US in terms of increased US national economic growth benefitting the US workforce.
Well Pete,
ReplyDeleteI hope the MAGA crowd's worst nightmare comes true: Kamal Harris for President, with Taylor Swift as her VP!
In other news - are Australians finally swinging away from the "No nukes here" that torpedoed ANZUS in the 1990s? (or is it a coalition election plot?)
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/nuclear-wildcard-reignites-australias-climate-wars-2024-07-22/
Hi Shawn
ReplyDeleteAssuming Harris becomes Democrat nominee at next month's Democratic Convention it will be interesting who she picks as would be VP running mate - probably a slightly more conservative male (Sorry Taylor Swift :)
Yes NZ's anti-nuclear policies from the 1980s and still a bit today https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Lange#International_affairs_and_nuclear-free_policy effectively excluded NZ from active membership of ANZUS. Also few are enthusiastic about NZ joining mainly SSN based AUKUS.
Dutton's plan to build 7 nuclear power reactors in Australia is pie in the sky especially as he wants to use taxpayers money to build and operate them. No energy companies have come forward to build them. No banks want to fund them as they are a poor lending risk.
Meanwhile Australia’s nuclear regulator has approved a license to store nuclear waste from US, UK and possibly Australian nuclear submarines at HMAS Stirling south of Perth. The licence allows the Australian Submarine Agency to to build a low-intermediate nuclear waste dump. Even high level waste might be approved.
see https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/radioactive-waste-storage-licence-granted-despite-opposition/
Cheers Pete